Technically, Not a Recession
May 30, 2008 3:30pm by Barry Ritholtz
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Friday Night Jazz: Chet Baker II
I’d be more amused if I had a job.
Yes, and technically, oil and other energy related prices are not being manipulated by sons of bitches who deserve to be castrated without anesthetic, and made to watch their nuts being removed … it’s just honest speculators in an honest game.
I’m sure the fine people in the Bush Administration will study unwarranted complaints thoroughly and announce that all is well. It’s just supply side economics in action and, soon, the benefits will trickle down to the rest of us.
Oh, pardon me for being sexist. It won’t happen again.
And technically, oil and other energy related prices are not being manipulated by unholy and rancid whores who deserve to spend eternity servicing glory holes without the benefit of a clean towel… it’s just honest speculators in an honest game.
I prefer the term “economically-challenged” to recession. It doesn’t sound as bad, therefore it’s NOT as bad!
cinefoz, my brother, you sure got a lot out of that cartoon.
Before one acquiesces to being trickled down upon, one should find out exactly what it is that will be trickling down. I don’t think it’s what most people think it is. I’ve got galoshes and an umbrella, but I think I might need chest waders. Or a submarine. This “trickle” is getting deep.
Wasn’t that cartoon in black and white a few minute ago?
Now it is in color, but I swear it was posted in black and white, that or I am going crazy from this non-recession.
C’mon, cinefoz. I’m one of those speculators/investors in the energy complex. Am I so deserving of your scorn? I’m trying to maintain (and hopefully improve) the value of my earned (not inherited) wealth.
Debauching the currency isn’t my fault. No one I voted for in the past 20 years won an election. Why can’t I buy commodity futures to protect myself from what the rest of society is unknowingly-and-oh-so-unwisely doing to their own wealth?
Without 20% yearly nominal gains, I’m not earning a return on my money. Less than 10% yearly nominal gains means I’m not even treading water.
What’s been manipulated is everything else. Energy is finding its own level. And I’ve been trying to make money as it finds that level.
What’s wrong with that?
Now, if you’re telling me there’s some Enron-type stuff going on, well, I’m all ears.
At what point does “maintaining one’s wealth” make up for people in other countries starving to death because of sky high food prices, I wonder. At what point does “maintaining one’s earned wealth” make up for all the people who lose their jobs as energy prices go up and companies cut their work forces?
Hmm.
I thought what “trickles down” was obvious by my economic stature – I’m nothing but a pee-on.
Barry – go dig up the “30 rock” episode (online) which opens with a segment by matthew broderick and alec baldwin….you will die laughing.
1860 LINCOLN: Longshot
1948 TRUMAN: Can’t win
1952 IKE: What’s not to like
1960 JFK: Say goodnight Dick
1964 LBJ: All-the-way to Camron Bay
1968 NIXON: He’s baaaack!
1976 CARTER: Jimmy who?
1980 REAGAN: Roll camera…Action!
1988 BUSH: One for the money
1992 CLINTON: Feels our pain
2000 BUSH: Two for the road
2008 OBAMA: WTF (Wealth Transfer Fix)
I still don’t understand how so many people have become ardently convinced that if we just ran the speculators out of town, oil prices will stabilize. When you don’t have enough of something to meet demand, prices rise.
This cartoon makes little Jimmy Pethokoukis cry.
drtomaso said:
When you don’t have enough of something to meet demand, prices rise.
reply: Now that is the million dollar question. The truth will become known eventually. There’s the common belief, which falls under the same logic as “Since 50 billion files eat shit, then it must be good food”.
Then there’s the common sense version that notices when huge volumes of money cascade into a commodity and the price goes up, then there might be a correlation … especially when those who profit the most from it’s rising convince others that there is no limit to up and provide price targets that include astronomical growth rates.
General comment:
Look, I hate Bush, but you’ll be happier about Bush when you realize in 20 years he kept the oil from China and India.
Pre-emptive war, was it? Yes, it was, but not pre-emptive towards Iraq. Pre-emptive towards China.
You think we’re losing in Iraq? We’re not. It’s a war of occupation, not of conquest. Just like Vietnam. Blow the shi*t out of everything, install some bases, and you’re cool. As long as no serious contender to US interests arise then we’re A OK. To think otherwise is being ignorant of history.
“Then there’s the common sense version ”
I would say that drtomaso has it a lot more right than you on this one. Read the WSJ dude. The Saudis have 800 million less barrels on the market because they internally use 500 million and have 300 million less on the market.
You people keep singing the same tired song without ever explaining what replaces the lower production from Norway, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Indonesia, Nigeria. Higher demand and lower supply is not called speculation, it is called a free market looking for equilibrium.
Exxon and the rest don’t even replace the reserves they sell. It a few years they will be nothing but filling stations.
And don’t tell me Iran has 20 tankers stored.
Joining in the chorus here, it can’t be all supply and demand. Witness the fact that there are no gas lines and no rationing of gasoline, no mandatory carpooling. If there were truly a shortage of oil out there, we would be seeing some if not all of the above.
Speculation and manipulation (of supply by OPEC and Russia) has had a very significant influence in the high price of oil, I would say $50/barrel. Mind you, I don’t dismiss the rising demand of China and India as not having a big part in it. But really, it’s been a case of the headline flow all being in favor of higher prices as the path of least resistance with no bearish reasons at the present moment to scare the bullish speculators out of their positions. If you looked at the tech/internet/telecom bubble you probably would find the same positive headline flow, the same lack of reasons to sell. Then suddenly, the worm turned.
Let me pose this scenario: 5 years from now hypothetically there is a 20% market penetration of electric cars, plug-in hybrid cars, hybrid cars on the way to 100%. Wind and solar energy provide 10% of electricity, there have been major advances in coal-to-gas-liquification and worldwide use of LNG is much greater.
What price is a barrel of oil 5 years from now?
Donna,
There’s no way I can “make up for it”. But, you’re barking up the wrong tree.
I issue this challenge to anyone who wants to kill energy speculator profits. All they/you have to do is:
– immediately stop driving SUV’s and chauffeuring your kids to 6 after-school activities (instead of having them just play around the neighborhood),
– immediately institute telecommuting,
– immediately stop mucking with the tax incentives in the energy sector, because companies don’t know how-much-to-invest-in-what so long as the regulatory/tax scheme environment doesn’t stay stable,
– stop voting for politicians who don’t promise to raise CAFE standards,
– if it must be waged, wage war competently (not commit “military malpractice” in oil-producing nations), and
– much, much more but you can make meaningful improvement with the above alone.
But, the biggest issue is population growth. The 6 billion people on the planet today come courtesy of religious “leaders” encouraging people to have kids. Go gripe at the Pope, among others, for starving masses.
>> Let me pose this scenario: 5 years from now hypothetically there is a 20% market penetration of electric cars,
I hope so, Todd.
>> You think we’re losing in Iraq? We’re not.
True, it depends on one’s definition. If you’re trivializing a million dead Iraqis as a few broken eggs for your PNAC omelet, then you’ve won, Patrick. I suppose “congratulations” are in order??
>> It’s a war of occupation, not of conquest. Just like Vietnam. Blow the shi*t out of everything, install some bases, and you’re cool. As long as no serious contender to US interests arise then we’re A OK. To think otherwise is being ignorant of history.
Patrick, you misunderstand the Vietnam and Iraq war protesters. The “problem” isn’t that they’re “ignorant of history”. The “problem” is they don’t believe “US interests” in oil justify killing millions.
“Empire” is not a magical justification. People in Holland, England, France, Germany, Rome, Portugal, Japan, and Spain get along quite well without the burdens of Empire.
No way to stop the speculators.
Nixon tried it in 1971.
“Witness the fact that there are no gas lines and no rationing of gasoline,”
That is the point. Our jobs went to India and China and Brazil. They have the jobs. They have the money. Daimler and BWM have shifted cars away from the US to those markets. Those cars take gasoline.
If you continue to think US-centric you will miss the rest of the world. Mao is gone from China and they are growing over 9%.. Brazil if growing leaps and bounds. India is a democracy.
Russia is no longer communist but rapidly adopting the predatory capitalist model of the west. yes, they learned from Enron and others to screw the customer and whatever the market will bear.
You can’t keep the rest of the world down so yo can have gasoline for a buck.
Patrick wrote:
You think we’re losing in Iraq? We’re not. It’s a war of occupation, not of conquest. Just like Vietnam. Blow the shi*t out of everything, install some bases, and you’re cool. As long as no serious contender to US interests arise then we’re A OK. To think otherwise is being ignorant of history.
That’s very debatable on many levels. Even if you’re correct Patrick, maybe it’s a Pyhrric victory. I suggest that you could draw parallels in history to another occupation: the Soviet Union in Afghnistan.
A case can be made that the fall of the Soviet Union was tied to the bankrupting of the USSR treasury, a breaking of the Soviet military in the process and declining morale among the citizenry. Turned out, the emperor had no clothes. We have diverted so much treasure in this war(not to understate the tragedy befallen so many American families) that we have seriously impacted the future of this country in the process. Money that could have been spent on a Manhattan project designed to wean the American economy off foreign oil, fix the education system, improve infrastructure and public transportation, improve health care just to name a few.
The world got a lot less intimidated by the Soviet Union after the debacle in Afghanistan. The same can be said for the USA now. Are we the emperor without any clothes now? What say you, BR?