Forget the whole under-reported inflation discussion for a moment. Check out this chart of GDP components:
Gee, that’s an awful lot of negative activity for an expansion.
Thanks, Jake
GDP Final = 1%
June 26, 2008 10:02am by Barry Ritholtz
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after, of course, yet another revision UP.
The race to the bottom continues, albeit slowly.
Ciao
MS
Old Data… completely irrevelevant now…
It’s a beautiful day here in VT. I’m done, going to cash and heading for the lake.
Stocks are just trading up and down with crude.
I hate trading commodities and if the stock market is just going to be an extension of crude, I’m not playing.
1%…
It’s craaaaptastic!
Before you go VT have a gander at this:
filed on June 23rd by LEH
40-6B [html][text] 1 KB [Paper]Application for exemption from all provisions of The Investment Company Act of 1940 by an Employee’s Investment Company
Acc-no: 9999999997-08-029304 (40 Act)
THink they are at the brink?? I do.
Ciao
MS
The administration has ruled, “there will not be a second recession on our watch”, and voila!, no recession!
Just go out shopping, willya.., pleeeaaase??
Neal:
You are right. While it would be impossible for them to say GDP growth is 3 or 4%, they can massage the numbers enough to show that things are above water(if just barely). Bush has to give McCain a fighting chance, otherwise McCain and the Republicans would really be toast come November.
So GDP/capita has contracted…
Leave it to the spinmeisters to argue that there’s no recession in sight.
Is this inflation adjusted?
“Bush has to give McCain a fighting chance, otherwise McCain and the Republicans would really be toast come November.”
One must looks at the polling data from reliable sources. fivethirtyeight.com is an awesome site for that. It’s pretty geeky but has been right during the primaries when other missed the mark.
According to their data, McCain has no chance of gaining the WH in November. That, despite all the free passes the MSM is giving him and persist in giving him now.
Obama has learn the lesson from Kerry and won’t be swiftboated for lack of resources and will to fight. That has to enrage the big bosses of the media conglomerates who have clear preferences for November.
Sux to be them!
Gov’t spending represents a large % increase. Are these categories equal-weighted? Adjusted for inflation? I think Gov’t spending traditionally accounted for 18-19% of GDP. What is it now? 90%? We know what the other 10% is ….. all inflation.
If you take out Gov’t spending amounts perhaps GDP would be -10%. The Gov’t can spend its way out of anything!
And I wonder how “real” their numbers really are? (I think that is a question).
“But other than that Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?”
Yeah, we’ll just forget the fact that it’s based on an obvious lie, and discuss how it stinks on ice even with the lie taken at face value…
The disturbing part about this picture is that the only part that is going up (government “output”) is perhaps the least efficient and hardest to change.