Sometime ago, Dan Gross got us thinking about all manner of weird economic indicators. This one, via Merrill Lynch, falls cleanly into that categories: Luggage Sales:
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Luggage sales fall off the carousel
Unit sales of luggage: 6-month annualized % change, (millions)
chart courtesy of Merrill Lynch:
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David Rosenberg:
We track luggage sales as a barometer of travel plans – and they have fallen in two of the past three months and are running at a near-record 35% annual rate over the past six months. Either people intend to stay close to home (which requires a ‘cocooning’ theme) or those who do intend to travel are scaling back their suitcase purchases in response to the advent of these airline per-bag fees.
Why buy a bag that is only going to be another cash-flow drain? Simply wear everything you would have packed (not comfortable but a lot cheaper).
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Source:
Empty suitcase: No Luggage Sales = No Travel Plans
David Rosenberg
Merrill Lynch, July 7, 2008
http://tinyurl.com/69s6hx
Freddie Mac has fallen off a cliff…nobody seems to care. WAKE UP!!!!!! Down almost 20% in a few days. Fed will be in emergency mode to shore them up and won’t be able to rescue the IndyMacs of the world. Several homebuilders in grave danger also…anybody care????
Interesting to see who is holding the bag on Freddie…of course Legg Mason number one.
and in other news, tent sales climb! (ht mish) Coincidental?
And with the rate of growth of Medical Marijuana prescriptions, trips that are planned definitely look to be much closer to home.
http://www.drugwarfacts.org/medicalm.htm
With the airlines charging passengers per bag fees,
this “indicator” has room to run on the downside.
As for FME,FNM, maybe even SLM,
OUCH!!!!!!(not only for the stocks but for the taxpayers)
Bailouts to come….
GSA’s and LUGGAGE??????
…an indicator which uses a different kind of bag.
I seem to remember making a comment about luggage futures in Iran and Syria……..
BTW Massa needs to be fired for his “performance” over the weekend.
Ciao
MS
I’m just waiting till CNBC realizes the system maybe crashing as they fiddle…
To tie it all together…bag sales down…all bagholders already have their bags…Freddie and Fannie going bust…tent sales rise.
Say this fast 3 times..Fannie and Freddie in Freefall
HOLY CRAP!!!! Freddie falling apart…I’m off to my hidden bunker. Later!
What happened to the Dow? It just fell off a cliff. I am not in front of a TV right now, unfortunately.
Seriously..I never laughed so hard as just now…Freddie down 24% and Pisani blames energy for the market drop.
my guess is that IMB is about to be officially
“taken out”…..
Trading halt earlier on it……trading minimal shares at this point…few hundred here and there.
That futures pump lasted all of 3 hours…..a little less in reality..
Ciao
MS
I’m in the twilight zone…only myself and FRE shareholders know what is going on. Nobody on CNBC sees it either.
NOTE: Now commenting from my hidden bunker, outfitted with wi-fi.
luggage indicator: “get me outa heeeeeere!”
How do you subscribe to the Morning Market Memo?
How are European luggage and tent sales?
The USA answers were obvious.
Man, am I kickin myself. Sold out my SKF at 150 thinking I might miss “5 or 10 points” concerned about intervention. It’s now up to 173. I suppose it’s on Fannie and Freddie and there will soon be intervention.
This also shows what confidence the markets have in G8 meetings and pompous proclamations of positivism.
It’d be interesting to see the luggage stats broken down into checked bags and carry ons.
Every economist has their favorite indicator. Thirty years ago the manufacturing output at GE Appliance Park in Louisville Ky was considered a bellwether for the economy.
Right now everyones talking about silver linings, but the forecast is torrential rain.
of course since LEH says the market goes to 1630 in the second half….
What is 90% of LEH’s assets in again????
Thanks for playing.
Ciao
MS
Interestingly enough, I had just read a weekend piece in the FT about the resilience of global tourism (at least for those who could still afford it).
Here it is, for anyone who would like to check it out: “Global tourism defies slowing economic trends”.
Wonder if the new fees for baggage are influencing this data? Didn’t a couple of carriers just add on fees for more than 1 checked bag or something?
These days it’s easier to just ship your stuff ahead of you in a cardboard box and ship it home. For the rate some airlines are charging for bags, you might as well.