Soft Furry Landing

Good thing CNBC called it a “Cub Market”, I hear that cubs are softer and furrier than bears.

During 2009, there may not be a whole lot of capital gains for Obama to tax.

Where is Stephen Colbert? If we had only listened to his warning about bears!!!!

It occurred to me today (though BR and half the readers probably thought of it a year ago) that capitulation may occur as much when the shorts stop shorting or start covering as when the longs wave the white flag.

Regardless of your opinion of the uptick rule, it existed in every prior bear market in modern times. Without it the dynamics of the equation have significantly changed, haven’t they?

Pretty funny cartoon.

Did CNBC seriously call this a cub market? Is that for real? Who the hell said that? Did Burnett then follow up with a silver lining?

DC,

You bring up a good point. The lack of uptick rule has to be having an impact here.

The Cub market was called by someone from JPM. Since it was good news at this point, they played it up with the usual graphics, etc.

Looks like “Lend ’em” Ben Bernanke has struck again. The answer to crises caused by easy money is more easy money. Until…

mhm @ 3:39:55 PM

“The never ending money stream coming out of the discount window … seems inflationary since every time it opens the dollar value compared to other currencies drop.”

As for the Fed funds being at 2%, this is definitely inflationary. But there is also the matter of the various auction facilities (i.e., “cash for trash”). Kudlow recently asked one of the former Fed governors (Lyle Gramley, I think) about whether this auction facility business is inflationary; the former Fed governor insisted that it isn’t. He may be right about this; but the presence of the auction facility eliminates (in my opinion) a deflationary force that would otherwise be there.

To be fair, you can’t just blame Republicans. Pretty much all of our politicians suck.

Instead of putting this country on the right path, they’re either waging war, getting serviced by high-priced hookers or fellow bathroom goers, getting rent controlled housing or sweetheart mortgage deals, or building bridges to nowhere.

We really need term limits in all wings of the Federal government. Otherwise we have imperial families running Washington. How are the Bushes, Clintons, Kennedys, etc. that much different from Russian oligarchs? I guess in theory, they could be voted out, if we as the populace weren’t idiots…

Fed denies discount window rumor. Put the rumor mongerers in jail!!! They hurt the innocent shorts.

Now market will tank AH and setup Black Monday…of course unless the Fed now decides to open the window given the reaction to the rumor.

is that a dent in my head or a mental recession ?

waiting to read about the big picture traffic report :)

Either this will be a bottom or next week’s going to be armageddon week.

cheers

Seems like the Government is between a rock and a hard place right now. What would the disaster scenario be if they actually let Freddie and Fannie fall on its face?

HCF:
A classic bit of spread the blame. Politics as a trade aint perfect and particularly not in the incredibly complex system we have in the US where so many conflicting interests have to be balanced. But when it comes to stacking up records give me Bubba’s over Dubya’s anyday. Unlike most Americans I’m not fixated on Bubba’s zipper problems which are totally irrelevant to his ability to make the system work. When he left office the country was basking in eight years of huge growth in wealth and jobs, budget surpluses and at peace around the world. The couple of conflicts that occurred on his watch cost relatively little and enhanced the reputation of the US. Compare that with the last eight years. And what is this obsession with sex here. Most of the most effective rulers (think Catherine II, Lloyd George, Kemal Ataturk, Kennedy) were more than a little interested in sex.

News Flash from the Fed.

To order to ensure an orderly market and sufficient capital flows, the discount window will, starting next week, be open to the average investor. Equities that are now under water can be used as collateral for securing a revolving Federal loan in an amount equivalent to the original amount paid for the shares as stated by the investor. The investor will receive the Feds’ new US of A emergency notes, printed on one side of old Wall Street papers, the denominations run to 8 figures to lighten the load on the investor’s pockets.

America is dying. What delusional, nonsense story can I tell myself to live in the same dreamland as those who think this is a normal business cycle?

I love how the Republican voters keep saying it’s both parties’ fault. That’s bullshit. It’s the Republicans’ (or conservatives, or right-wing, or neocons – whatever the hell they call themselves) fault.

I’m no fan of the Democrats, but the Republicans have ruined this country six ways to Sunday – and they needed no help from the Dems to do it.

Don’t make me write a list.

I love how the Republican voters keep saying it’s both parties’ fault. That’s bullshit. It’s the Republicans’ (or conservatives, or right-wing, or neocons – whatever the hell they call themselves) fault.

I’m no fan of the Democrats, but the Republicans have ruined this country six ways to Sunday – and they needed no help from the Dems to do it.

Don’t make me write a list.

I just heard that the Fed took IndyMac over.

Well, the bears in that comic sure look happy at least.

The problem with the Republican party is that we’ve been hijacked by the neo-cons, the ultra-hawks, and the religious nut-jobs.

Very few small government, libertarian types which was the beauty of the party, imho.

Yes, I was the one to say “You can’t just blame the Republicans.” And I stand by the fact that both parties bear blame. It’s just that most of the crap right now is because of the recent Republican dominated Congress and Presidency.

Admit it, when it’s all Democrats in charge, we are just as effed up as when it’s all Republicans….

But there’s no getting around this: Dubya is the WORST president we’ve had since the Great Depression. Despite my intial opposition to him, I have to admit that Bill Clinton was pretty damn good…

The current leadership is an embarrassment to not only the party, but more importantly, to the country as a whole.

Watching Don Luskin reminded me of that movie, Weekend at Bernie’s.

I kind of watched Kudlow with one eye and ear tonight…but what came from Luskin was he has not been wrong…it’s just the bears have been right. Oh and he was right not to buy financials.

I’d rather do Oedipus one better and jab needles in both eyes and ears than watch/listen to that hack Luskin. What an ass.
Kudlow appears to be convinced his own bullshit, but Luskin reminds me of Dan Akroyd’s responses to Jane Curtin (i.e., the bear case). What a hack. Who invests money with him?

Truth and real numbers seem to be less scary for Banks board members as Banks Ceo s are being fired at a hasty pace in July.
Just take note

Barry,

Apologies in advance for a long post here. Forgive me if I am preaching to the choir, I know you have commented previously on how the Fed eased too far – but things are chaotic right now, and I wanted to put this out to see if anyone else is on board with this:

Dr Bernanke needs to put down the textbooks on the Great Depression and even the papers on Japan, at least for the time being. The difference between those events and where we are now is obvious: the $ is the world’s reserve currency, and the best way to stabilize the world financial system here is to support the $. By lowering rates too far, the Fed has created new imbalances and additional instability that is threatening to spiral out of control.

Much attention is paid to the stock market when the credit markets are almost always ahead of the game, and in many ways are far more important. The Treasury market is sending a message to Dr. Bernanke – it has just produced its own ~15 bp rate hike. He needs to pay attention.

We hear a lot about moral hazard from commentators. Here is a serious moral hazard for the Fed to consider: the hot money in the commodity markets is creating a situation where people in poor countries are going to starve while people on limited incomes in the USA are in danger of freezing to death this winter. There is an obvious solution.

A 25 bp or even a 50 bp hike right here pops the commodity bubble, as the laws of supply and demand would be allowed to determine price, and those markets would be restored to their normal state very quickly by the rapid exit of leveraged players.

At the same time, the hot money would be allowed to find its natural homes within the equity and credit markets. Such a modest change in rates would do little damage to solvent institutions, while those that are insolvent cannot be helped. As for the housing market, it is frozen anyway, so this would have little effect. The process of asset price discovery will continue.

A small hike here would probably restore confidence very quickly and does not rule out easing later if required. It’s important to have perspective – please save lives, not bankers.

The Constitution provides checks and balances among the three branches of the federal government. The authors of the Constitution expected the greater power to lie with Congress and it has been theorized that that is one reason they are described in Article One. Congress writes and passes legislation, not the President. The President leads the country and fights for legislation that he believes to be in the best interest of the Country as a whole.

Looking at it this way we see that Democrats currently have 54% (289) of the members of both houses. The Republicans have 46% (249) of the membership – Independents count just 2 members. Certainly the Democrats have control.

So who is to blame? Both parties in my opinion. Neither side wants to introduce legislation that although needed, my not be seen as favorable to the electorate. So the choice is made – should I as a Congressman do what is right, or do what will get me re-elected. We know what choice they made.

Most of you here are giving the President way too much credit to where we are today. It is the Congress that is to be blamed.

Joe Eifrid writes: Looking at it this way we see that Democrats currently have 54% (289) of the members of both houses. The Republicans have 46% (249) of the membership – Independents count just 2 members. Certainly the Democrats have control.

So who is to blame? Both parties in my opinion. Neither side wants to introduce legislation that although needed, my not be seen as favorable to the electorate. So the choice is made – should I as a Congressman do what is right, or do what will get me re-elected. We know what choice they made.
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While I agree that the Democrats have offered us nothing and and have undoubtedly been playing politics to win in 2008 at a very dangerous economic time, the Republicans controlled everything for 6 years. E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G. The seeds of this economic decline have been planted in the first 6 years of the Bush Administration and a Congress entirely controlled by Republicans.

How can you ignore that and think both parties equally share the blame?

This is rich coming from someone who voted for Bush twice. Those tired old corrupt asses like Kennedy & Byrd at least voted against this obscene and costly war based on a pack of lies which the poster supports. A war that’s dragging our economy in the tank. I’ll take the wise old asses of Kennedy and Byrd any day over the incredibly dumb asses named Bush & Cheney.