Recession Yet? September 5, 2008 4:00pm by Barry Ritholtz Funny comic from Ted Rall (who is usually too far over the top for my taste) Spread the wealth. twitter facebook linkedin What's been said: Discussions found on the web: Jonathan commented on Sep 5 There is so much irony in that cartoon, I am not sure where to begin. km4 commented on Sep 5 Obama: McCain focused on biography over economy DURYEA, Pa. – Democrat Barack Obama called Republican rival John McCain’s acceptance speech the final piece of an out-of-touch convention that focused on its nominee’s biography instead of the struggles of the middle class. “If you watched the Republican National Convention over the last three days, you wouldn’t know that we have the highest unemployment in five years because they didn’t say a thing about what is going on with the middle class,” Obama told workers at a specialty glass factory. Obama mocked McCain’s campaign manager Rick Davis for saying the election would be decided more by voters’ views about the candidates than about issues. “Personalities? I mean, I’ve got a pretty good personality. But that’s not why I’m running for president,” Obama said to laughter. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080905/ap_on_el_pr/obama BINGO ! nades commented on Sep 5 Barry, The link to Ted’s site doesnt work. Cheers! ~n KnotRP commented on Sep 5 (here they come…) ….are you going to eat the rest of that economist, or can I have a little? ….hey look, the ranks of the unemployed dropped by one…. ….hey, we’ve finally reached the bottom. But I ain’t eating it. ….and then he said “on the one hand we won’t have a recession, but on the other hand………one fixed economist, ready to serve. ….If I adjust by the birth/death model, he’s not dead yet… (ok, sorry sorry sorry…) Mike M commented on Sep 5 Interesting, the Treasury is going to have an announcement regarding FNM/FRE. Anyone not surprised financials were so strong today? I wish Boozaka Hank would let me know in advance about his announcements. Vespatian commented on Sep 5 If you think this is contained to the US – think again. Here is the best rant I’ve yet seen and it’s based in the UK: http://www.bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/ Strider commented on Sep 5 Perhaps you have a new definition of recession. Can’t wait to hear it. JustinTheSkeptic commented on Sep 5 Well, so let them announce and implement another wreck of a bail-out plan, in the end it is going to end up biting all of them in the ass. They will go down as the most incompetent people to ever run the White House. Perhaps as the most incompetent people period. JustinTheSkeptic commented on Sep 5 I pitty the american generations that follow. winslow commented on Sep 5 What Obama needs to do right now is have a press conference and provide DETAILS of what he will do. Recommendations: 1) form a panel to explore other forms of energy that can be implemented over the next 10 yrs. 2) provide a method to reduce the national debt 3) describe infrastructure improvements 4) present immigration reform 5) restructure taxes to help the “average” American 6) restructure SS to ensure its continuance Steve Barry commented on Sep 5 News of Fannie and Freddie backstop about to be announced per CNBS. F&F shot up on the report…now tanking after hours….even Fast Money “Emissary” Melissa Lee admits it (boy they turn business news into high school stupidity). I only care about QQQQ anyway. The dollar rally will turn QQQQ into what I have oft stated…a smoldering crater. JustinTheSkeptic commented on Sep 5 I ment PITY – pity the people that didn’t have a vote to proffer. JL commented on Sep 5 Perhaps you have a new definition of recession. Can’t wait to hear it. Posted by: Strider | Sep 5, 2008 4:55:41 PM Strider you must not come to this site often. Go back to the FOX business channel and I’m sure they will tell you what you want to hear. Steve Barry commented on Sep 5 My conspiracy theory: republicans know how unconscionably bad things are behind the scenes and want to lose the election…they will stick Obama with all the problems. If somehow we are stupid enough to STILL vote in McCain, they’ll just have to start a war somewhere. leftback commented on Sep 5 Looks like Westbury and Dennis Kneale at the “camp” fire…..? leftback commented on Sep 5 If the Freddie and Fannie bail out is for real, then what happens Monday? FRE and FNM common stock tanks. Treasuries sell off. The $ tanks and gold takes off. Do the rest of the financials rally on reduced counter-party risk, increased stability? Market rally, short squeeze? Anyone else care to speculate? This is a good example of why overnight risk is huge in this market – there is so much interference. Steve Barry commented on Sep 5 Ok…who is the genius who paid $7 for Fannie common just when this rumor came out? A panicky short? Darkness commented on Sep 5 1) form a panel to explore other forms of energy that can be implemented over the next 10 yrs. 2) provide a method to reduce the national debt 3) describe infrastructure improvements 4) present immigration reform 5) restructure taxes to help the “average” American 6) restructure SS to ensure its continuance 1,2,3,5,6 are easy. More taxes. In the case of 3, a real gas tax would be logical, like $2/gallon. Trouble is Republicans have made it impossible to fess up to the electorate with the truth that someone has to pay for stuff. Any candidate who does gets murdered at the polls. But it should be considered a form of denial bordering on insanity to think that we can keep pushing paying the bills off forever and ever as the Republican platform insists we do. My theory as to why they have a psychotic reaction to actually paying for stuff is that they either, one) always get bailed out by daddy their whole lives and still instinctively think that will happen no matter what they screw up, or two) they think they can party nonstop until the rapture at which point, they’d look silly floating up to heaven with their accounts in the black. VennData commented on Sep 5 VennData is putting out an immediate sell on MSFT. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afR5J7eskno AGG commented on Sep 5 I just read something by Paul Craig Roberts where he asserts that a rather influential group of blood thirsty war lovers are still very much influencing ALL our government policy. The connection to the present state of the economy is that these types thrive on social anarchy. They don’t just profit from war. They yearn for an impoverished mass to be willing to do anything for crumbs. These PR vampires have probably seen Ted Rall’s cartoon and are planning to set up cameras and mikes in impoverished areas and charge the rich to watch the poor suffer. No, I’m not kidding. This crazy group of fascists has tha same “private hobbies” that Hitler’s entourage had. It seems despotic power always brings with it the love of depraved activity. These sick bastards have got to go. Don’t blame the bean counters at the Government agencies. They are just “following orders”. No, if you’ve got an incumbent senator or congressman that doesn’t support impeachment, vote him out. The impeachment thing is moot but the balls of a legislator to deny the constitution says it all. This is NOT a republican or democrat problem. It goes way beyond that. JL commented on Sep 5 “If you think this is contained to the US – think again. Here is the best rant I’ve yet seen and it’s based in the UK: http://www.bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/ Posted by: Vespatian | Sep 5, 2008 4:44:46 PM” Great rant indeed. All you have to do is replace “Labour Voters” with “Bush Voters” and you get the same for the US. VJ commented on Sep 5 winslow, “1) form a panel to explore other forms of energy that can be implemented over the next 10 yrs.” Why wait 10 years ? The cell phone companies recently released data from their GPS mapping software that indicated that on most days, most Americans travel less than 20 miles from home. So, you incentivize the auto companies to do a crash program to start building Plug-in Hybrids, you provide a federal tax credit so that they cost the same as a non-hybrid, and provide a tax incentive to employers to install electrical outlets for their employees to recharge their vehicles. Then, on most days, most Americans would not use any gas or very little gas. Bada Bing. “2) provide a method to reduce the national debt” Simple. Reverse what created the debt. “5) restructure taxes to help the ‘average’ American” The American RightWing will label such an effort as “Class Warfare”. Nevermind the Middle-class and Working Poor have badly lost that war. “6) restructure SS to ensure its continuance” Once again, Social Security is more financially sound today than it has been throughout most of its 72-year history. What’s to “restructure” ? . CNBC Sucks commented on Sep 5 I barely glanced at the cartoon the first time and didn’t think much of it, but now, seeing the disemboweled body and torn limbs being eaten, I say, that’s about right for the Palin Administration 2014. Yeah yeah, its out of fashion now, but I hold my ground that the big oil spike crisis (the one that Matt Simmons worries about when oil supply actually declines) could happen at any time, and I imagine Palin having to deal with THAT. It gives me cold comfort to know there are millions of voters in key states who would vote against Obama just on 1 or 2 issues (anti-choice + his race) even as their means to survive are becoming tenuous with each passing day. CNBC Sucks commented on Sep 5 Much apologies for the double post, but I didn’t see the comment on Westbury and Kneale. I still have a mental note to slam the hell out of Westbury for his Dow 15,000 by yearend prediction earlier this year. I am still holding back because we have 4 months left and the market is not only irrational, but delusional, as late Baby Boomers like Westbury and Kneale toked up too much ahead of my generation. Whammer commented on Sep 5 Steve Barry, I know you are not a tin-foil hat guy, but what gives me a tummy ache is that I think you are right — if Obama wins, he will be inheriting a mess of biblical proportions, and it will really take some heavy lifting in order for him to get re-elected. If McCain wins, we are guaranteed a new war somewhere…….. bullpin commented on Sep 5 BTW its funky friday go to WXPN 88.5 My Mourning jacket plays next bye bye Steve Barry commented on Sep 5 Speaking of Westbury…he just said on Kudlow “Auto sales surged in August.” That is a direct quote. I found that hard to fathom…he’s right though. Unfortunately, he used month to month rather than y/y, and auto sales seasonally always rise in August due to end-of-model-year sales. He should get a job at the NAR. Read this from Business Week Brian: August Auto Sales Flop Heavy discounting and promotions have failed to attract buyers. Only Nissan reports positive August sales by Jim Henry General Motors (GM) did its usual cheerleading when August auto sales were reported on Sept. 3, but it was impossible to ignore the fact that its “Employee Discount for Everyone” sale on leftover 2008 models was a dud, especially compared with a similar offer three years ago that electrified the industry. GM’s relentlessly upbeat vice-president for North America vehicle sales, service, and marketing, Mark LaNeve, hoped aloud that maybe industry sales have struck bottom, even as other forecasters have cut their predictions for 2008 sales to as low as 14 million units, the worst in at least 15 years. “At some point—you like to think that it [the bottom] was June or July—hey, gang, it’s going to happen sooner or later, it might as well happen now,” LaNeve said in a conference call with reporters and industry analysts. “This [result] gives us reason to think we’re pulling our way out of this,” he said. Despite the discounts, GM sales were down 20.3% from the year-ago month, to 307,285 cars and light trucks in August. GM’s Employee Discount sale began Aug. 20. It was to expire on Sept. 2, but on Sept. 3, GM extended the deals through Sept. 30. Year-to-date, GM sales were down 18.1%, to about 2.1 million, according to AutoData of Woodcliff Lake, N.J. A Different Measure of Success In announcing its monthly sales, GM chose to emphasize the fact that its August sales increased 31.3% vs. July, even though year-ago comparisons are the usual measure of success or failure. Seasonally, August sales are typically higher than July, thanks to end-of-model-year sales. richmondrambler commented on Sep 5 McCain/Palin ticket is an excellent fundraiser — for Obama. Just threw some $$ at his campaign. “I’ve been straight enough to play my axe… and sweetly” Dexter Gordon, Round Midnight H Salmon commented on Sep 5 On my drive home today, I was wondering whether if God, Jesus, and Moses all descended from the heavens and announced “The US is in recession”, anyone would listen. Or if we would go back to idiots debating worthless data points. And sound bite political posturing. Duck and cover Jojo commented on Sep 6 Love Ted Rall! But don’t forget Mark Fiore: http://www.markfiore.com/ Dennis commented on Sep 6 Ted Rall is a disgusting human being. Ted Rall: Death of US Soldiers Raises IQ at Home… Just one example. There are many. Mark E Hoffer commented on Sep 6 “I just read something by Paul Craig Roberts where he asserts that a rather influential group of blood thirsty war lovers are still very much influencing ALL our government policy. The connection to the present state of the economy is that these types thrive on social anarchy. They don’t just profit from war. They yearn for an impoverished mass to be willing to do anything for crumbs. These PR vampires have probably seen Ted Rall’s cartoon and are planning to set up cameras and mikes in impoverished areas and charge the rich to watch the poor suffer. No, I’m not kidding. This crazy group of fascists has tha same “private hobbies” that Hitler’s entourage had. It seems despotic power always brings with it the love of depraved activity. These sick bastards have got to go. Don’t blame the bean counters at the Government agencies. They are just “following orders”. No, if you’ve got an incumbent senator or congressman that doesn’t support impeachment, vote him out. The impeachment thing is moot but the balls of a legislator to deny the constitution says it all. This is NOT a republican or democrat problem. It goes way beyond that. Posted by: AGG | Sep 5, 2008 6:57:48 PM AGG, No doubt. So many are playing, still, the Left/Right game, distracted from the fact that they’re the Game to be stilled.. Read this next.September 25, 2008 Latest Bailout Plan Spin: Its a Money Maker!December 6, 2005 No Xmas for SonyMarch 23, 2020 BBRG: U.S. Can Get Bailouts Right This Time Posted Under Data Analysis Macro/Econ Previous Post Paul Volcker: Finance System is ‘Broken’ Next Post Here Comes the Half Trillion Dollar Fannie/Freddie Bailout!