Video-o-rama: Fresh wave of risk aversion
The first few days of the week have been characterized by a fresh wave of risk aversion as uncertainty over the global economic outlook took its toll on stock markets and investors favored safe-haven assets such as government bonds, the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, yesterday brought some relief for risky assets – now in corrective mode – and it remains to be seen whether the S&P 500 Index will close down for a fourth consecutive week as the US earnings season gets on the way.
The usual debate on the outlook for the economy and financial markets dominated the video channels over the past few days, but interesting snippets on the IMF’s improved forecast for the global economy, the viability of the Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), the US dollar’s role as reserve currency, the prospects for the earnings-reporting season and President Obama’s visit to Russia were also featured in the clips.
This week’s somewhat shorter-than-usual edition of Video-o-rama includes interviews with the likes of Oliver Blanchard, Jim Bianco, Puru Saxena, Roger Altman, Peter Peterson, Wilbur Ross, Allen Sinia, Jeff Saut and Boone Pickens.
The compilation starts off with a contribution on risk aversion by John Authers, the Financial Times‘s investment editor, and concludes with a Charlie Rose discussion on Barack Obama’s Russian rendezvous.
John Authers (Financial Times): Risk aversion makes comeback
“Commodities and currency markets are experiencing a new wave of risk aversion, driven in part by a swing from expectations of inflation to deflation fears, says FT’s John Authers.”
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Source: John Authers, Financial Times, July 8, 2009.
Bloomberg: Blanchard says recession lingers, sees “weak” recovery
“Olivier Blanchard, chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, talks with Bloomberg’s Peter Cook about the prospects for a global economic recovery. The IMF said in a report today [Wednesday] that the world economy will expand 2.5% in 2010, stronger than its 1.9% growth forecast in April. Blanchard also discusses governments’ fiscal stimulus plans and exit strategies for emergency programs.”
Source: Bloomberg, July 8, 2009.
CNBC: G8 set to move markets?
“This week’s G8 summit in Italy is going to be more philosophical than market moving, Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, told CNBC on Wednesday. Bianco considers the possibility of a second US stimulus package.”
Source: CNBC, July 8, 2009.
MSNBC: Stimulus a success – or spluttering?
“As lawmakers and analysts debate the effectiveness of President Barack Obama’s economic recovery plan, MSNBC’s Dylan Ratigan and a panel of guests offer their impressions.”
Source: MSNBC, July 9, 2009.
Charlie Rose: A conversation with Roger Altman, former United States Deputy Treasury Secretary
Source: Charlie Rose, July 8, 2009.
CNBC: Saxena – no recovery for at least 12 months
“An economic recovery will not be seen for at least 12 months, says Puru Saxena, money manager and CEO of Puru Saxena Wealth Management. He tells CNBC’s Amanda Drury why the rally we’ve seen is based on the wrong premises.”
Source: CNBC, July 7, 2009.
Charlie Rose: A conversation with Peter Peterson
Source: Charlie Rose, July 3, 2009.
Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker: Ron Paul is right! We should audit the Fed
“An amendment based on Congressman Ron Paul’s House bill to audit the Federal Reserves was blocked by the Senate this week on procedural grounds.
“Speaking on the Senate floor, Republican Senator Jim DeMint and supporter of an audit said, ‘allowing the Fed to operate our nation’s monetary system in almost complete secrecy leads to abuse, inflation and a lower quality of life’.”
Source: Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker, July 8, 2009.
CNBC: The unwinding of Lehman Brothers
“Bryan Marsal, CEO of Lehman Brothers Holdings, has been unwinding Lehman Brothers since the firm’s historic collapse. He discusses the process with CNBC.”
Source: CNBC, July 6, 2009.
CNBC: PPIP unveiled by Treasury
“The long-awaited Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) has finally been unveiled by the Treasury. Wilbur Ross, chairman of WL Ross & Co, shares his thoughts on the program.”
Source: CNBC, July 9, 2009.
CNBC: Allen Sinai and Jeffrey Saut on markets
“Allen Sinai, of Decision Economics, and Jeffrey Saut, of Raymond James, share their outlooks on the market and the economy.”
Source: CNBC, July 8, 2009.
CNBC: Art Cashin on secular cycles
The following from Art Cashin, head of floor operations at UBS:
“Back on the cycle – David Rosenberg, formerly chief economist at Merrill Lynch and now at Gluskin Sheff was a guest host on CNBC’s Squawkbox this morning. During the discussion he alluded to an 18 year cycle in the market. Not to quibble but many traders have thought of it as the 17.6 year cycle.
“Here’s how I outlined it back in May 2002: Yesterday, as the elders were being asked about the hiding place of the great Bull Market one of the fogeys mentioned the ‘near 18 year cycle’. Like the fat and lean years, it refers to so-called ‘easy’ times to make money in the market versus times requiring much harder work. The fogeys suggested it was near 18 years because it was approximately 17 years, 7 months. For ease of explanation to the juniors, one of the fogeys decimalized the number as 17.6 years so they could use their calculators.
“He then postulated this example – Let’s say the markets topped out in about February 2000. Let’s call that 2000.2. Subtract 17.6 and your back in about July 1982 (1982.60). The Dow was around 900. So you could see why those were a fat (easy) 17 years. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around January of 1965 and the Dow is around 900. (Yup – just like 1982.) Many twists and turns in those 17 years. Lots of chances to make money. But you had to work for every penny. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around May of 1947. The war is over. The Dow is around 170. Lots of prosperity ahead. Take away 17.6 and you are back around Sept of 1929 and the Dow is around 350.
“He began to go on. The juniors had had enough. Folks don’t like to hear that you can do well only if you do your homework everyday. Having lived through two of those cycles, we can attest that it works.”
Source: CNBC, July 7, 2009 (hat tip: The Big Picture, July 8, 2009).
Fox Business: Sam Stovall – outlook for Q2 earnings
“S&P’S chief economist Sam Stovall on what the market can expect from the past three months’ earnings.”
Source: Fox Business, July 7, 2009.
CNBC: Prospect of a new reserve currency
“Discussing the prospect of a new reserve currency, with David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumblerland Advisors, Andrew Freris, invesment strategist, BNP Paribas Wealth Management and CNBC’s Martin Soong.”
Source: CNBC, July 3, 2009.
John Authers (Financial Times): Curbs to oil speculation
“John Authers says that while regulating commodity trading may be risky, it seems to be justified in the current situation.”
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Source: John Authers, Financial Times, July 7, 2009.
CNBC: The Pickens Plan – one year later
“Boone Pickens, chairman of BP Capital, gives CNBC an update on the progress of The Pickens Plan, which sets out to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil.”
Source: CNBC, July 7, 2009.
Financial Times: BOE keeps rates and QE on hold
“The bank of England’s monetary policy committee surprised the market on Thursday by announcing it would not expand its programme of quantitative easing beyond the £125 billion already authorised. FT’s Chris Giles talks to Daniel Garrahan about how the bank will act next and whether the QE scheme is working.”
Source: Financial Times, June 8, 2009.
Charlie Rose: President Obama’s trip to Russia
“Update on President Obama’s trip to Russia with Michael Mandelbaum, Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy program at the Johns Hopkins University and Martha Raddatz of ABC News.”
Source: Charlie Rose, July 7, 2009.
