Succinct summation of week’s events (10/14/11)

October 14, 2011 3:30pm by

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Merkel and Sarkozy agree to agree on European solution with details to come but EU specifically working on Greek debt restructuring Part II, bank recap’s and Superman EFSF

2) Retail Sales in Sept surprise to upside and Aug gains revised up, notwithstanding tough labor market and global market turbulence over past few months

3) Initial Jobless Claims 4 week average falls to lowest since mid Aug

4) Sept NFIB small business optimism index up slightly from one yr low

5) Indonesia cuts interest rates, 1st Asian country to reverse recent tightening policy, Singapore follows with slight ease

6) Australian job gains in Sept twice expectations, key to watch as China proxy

Negatives:

1) Contagion threat in Europe still front and center as bond yields jump in Italy, Spain, France, Belgium and Portugal. French yields in particular at highest since Aug and Belgium 5 yr CDS at record high after Dexia bailout

2) Chinese CPI remains elevated at 6.1% in Sept at same time loan growth slows to lowest since Dec ’09, money supply growth slows to lowest since Feb ’02 and import and export growth both moderate

3) Oct UoM confidence falls, led by the Outlook component which drops to the lowest since 1980

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