Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (12/16/2011)

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) European bond yields fall across the board and across the curve (except Italian 10 yr)
2) Euro basis swap, euribor/ois spread down a touch on the week
3) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index unexpectedly rises to 47.9 from 47
4) German ZEW 6 mo expectations outlook up slightly
5) Philly and NY mfr’g survey’s surprise to upside and 6 month outlook improves (what are they seeing?)
6) Initial Claims fall to 366k, the least since May ’08
7) CPI rate of change about in line
8) MBA said refi’s rose to 5 week high
9) Big demand for Treasury auctions of 3’s, 10’s and 30’s
10) No QE3, for now at least. Money printing just a drug and hangover will come anyway at some point
11) China’s HSBC flash mfr’g # rises to 49 from 47.7 but still below 50 for 5th month in past 6

Negatives:

1) Implementation of EU summit agreement easier said than done
2) Euro zone CPI runs 3% y/o/y for 3rd straight month
3) US CPI up 3.4% y/o/y headline, 2.2% core, core rate at most since Oct ’08
4) US retail sales in Nov light vs estimates
5) MBA said purchase apps fall to 4 week low
6) Nov IP unexpectedly falls .1% led by auto’s and nat gas output
7) Shanghai index falls another 4% on week, FDI down 9.8% in Nov, 1st drop since July ’09
8) Indian Sensex drops to lowest since Nov ’09 as Oct IP falls 5.1% vs forecast of .7% fall
9) Japanese Q4 Tankan mfr’g # falls to -4 from +2
10) Solid demand for Treasury’s 3’s, 10’s and 30’s, what does that say about the economic outlook?
11) FOR STOCK MARKETS ONLY, no QE from Fed and ECB

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