Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) ECB LTRO continues to show signs of aleviating debt stress, for now as European bank stock index rallies 8%+ on the week and Italian bond yields fall
2) Euro basis swap, euribor/ois spread and US$ 3 mo LIBOR all narrow
3) German ZEW investor confidence jumps sharply
4) IMF wants more cash to bulk up
5) US Initial Jobless Claims plunge 50k BUT Labor Dept cautions on seasonal distortions
6) Months supply of existing homes fall to 6.2, the lowest since ’06 helped by investor purchases
7) NAHB builder sentiment up 4 pts to 25, the best since June ’07
8) Single family housing starts rise to most since Apr ’10
9) Mfr’g IP rises .9% m/o/m
10) CPI, PPI m/o/m headline readings benign but core rate tick up and y/o/y 2011 gains show inflation well above Treasury yields,
11) NY mfr’g better than expected
12) China’s Q4 GDP rises 8.9%, weakest since Q2 ’09 but better than estimated. Retail sales and IP both rise more than expected. HSBC mfr’g flash PMI steady with Dec 13) Philippines cuts rates, joining other Asian central banks in easing policy to boost growth. Brazil cuts rates too
Negatives:
1) Earnings reports very mixed with only about half beating estimates, down from 70-75% seen over the past few yr’s
2) Multi family housing starts weaken, just taking a breather as permits remain strong
3) Philly Mfr’g a touch below expectations
4) IMF wants more cash to bulk up, do they not have enough? They don’t, $2T funding gap they claim over next two yrs. Can they get it?
5) Australia reports unexpected job loss in Dec, economy very sensitive to Asia.
What's been said:
Discussions found on the web: