Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Greek bailout 2 and PSI (awaiting participation vote but CAC will force it) deal basically done, finally, and for now
2) Feb final UoM confidence up slightly from Jan but to best in a yr
3) Jan New Home Sales a bit better than expected, months supply shrinks again
4) Initial Jobless Claims 4 week avg falls to lowest since Mar ’08 at 359k
5) 7 yr note auction, most sensitive auction of the week to inflation expectations, was solid. What are buyers seeing that equity guys don’t?
6) After last weekend’s RRR cut in China, Shanghai index rallies every day of the week to highest since mid Nov
7) HSBC flash Feb PMI mfr’g up almost 1 pt to 49.7, a 4 month high but below 50 for 4th straight month
Negatives:
1) Notwithstanding Greek deal, news priced in to European equity markets as German and French stock markets up only slightly on week and Italy, Spain and Greece close lower
2) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index falls back below 50 unexpectedly
3) According to AAA, US gasoline prices rise another .10 on the week to $3.65, highest since Sept
4) Implied inflation expectations in TIPS continue higher
5) Existing Home Sales 320k less than expected including prior month revision but with sales at highest since May ’10, months supply falls to 6.1, smallest since April ’06
6) MBA said purchase apps fall 2.9% to lowest since Oct. Refi apps fall 4.8% on the week.
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