Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Fed’s Beige Book said the “economy continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace from mid Feb thru late Mar”
2) Germany continues its European economic outperformance as Exports unexpectedly rise in Feb
3) Chinese loan growth in March rises 1.01T yuan, well above estimates of 797.5b and the most since Jan ’11
4) Chinese retail sales and IP both up a touch above estimates
5) US headline PPI flat m/o/m vs forecast of up .3% but core rate rises .3% vs expectations of up .2%
Negatives:
1) Fed’s Beige Book said the “economy continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace from mid Feb thru late Mar” and not more
2) Spanish and Italian bond yields jump again, IBEX and MIB stock indexes both fall more than 5% on the week, Spanish CDS at record high and not too far from Hungary
3) French business confidence holds at lowest since Sept ’09 and IP and mfr’g production both less than expected
4) China’s GDP grows 8.1% in Q1 vs est of 8.4%, Mar CPI up 3.6%
5) Initial Jobless Claims rise to 380k, a 10 week high. Possibly distorted by Good Friday but maybe also a weather give back
6) CPI rate of change in line but index at new record high and continues rising faster than wage growth
7) UoM confidence down slightly but components mixed as while Current Conditions fell, the Outlook rose to the highest since Sept ’09,
8) The NFIB small business optimism index falls to 4 month low
9) Following endless Fed speak this week, parsing every word out of their mouths is really irritating.
