Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) With all the fears of Spanish and Italian spillover from Greece, both stocks and bonds in each are little changed on week.
2) French feel good with new Pres as consumer confidence rises to best since Nov ’10.
3) German consumer confidence holds at just .2 pts from highest since Mar ’11.
4) April New Home sales total 343k annualized, above expectations and the 2nd best over the past 2 yrs.
5) Apr Existing Home sales a touch above estimates but months supply rises to 6.6 from 6.2.
6) With mortgage rates hitting another new low, refi’s up 5.6% to 14 week high.
7) UoM confidence rises to most since Oct ’07 in May as one yr inflation expectations fall to 3.0%, the lowest since Dec ’10 in response to a 3 month low in gasoline prices.
8) KC region mfr’g rises to 9 from 3.
Negatives:
1)Greek stocks fall another 12%, down 91% from the high in ’07, a greater fall top to bottom than during the US Great Depression.
2) German IFO business confidence falls to 6 month low, mfr’g PMI drops to lowest since June ’09 at 45, French PMI at 44.4.
3) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index declines to lowest since June ’09.
4) UK Q1 GDP contraction revised even lower.
5) Italian consumer confidence falls to new low.
6) China’s HSBC flash mfr’g index remains below 50 for 7th straight month falling .6 pts, Shanghai index loses at 5 1/2 week low.
7) US Durable Goods fall .6% ex transports and 1.9% at the core vs an expected gain for both.
8) Initial Jobless Claims total 370k, in line but declining trend over past yr has stopped for now.
9) Richmond mfr’g falls to 4 from 14.
10) Notwithstanding new low in mortgage rates, purchase apps fall 3% to 4 week low.
11) Fitch downgrades Japan’s credit rating to A+, not a surprise but Japan continues its path to its European moment.
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