Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Athens stock market rallies almost 14% on week on hopes New Democracy party squeezes out win.
2) Unconfirmed story but likely central banks stand ready for coordinated action to deal with potential bank runs depending on election outcome.
3) Historically low mortgage rates finally get many off their arse as refi apps jump 19.2% to most since April ’09 and purchase apps rise 1.28% to 6 month high.
4) Headline US CPI slows to 1.7% y/o/y, slowest since Jan ’11 and PPI up just .7% y/o/y due mostly to drop in energy prices.
5) CPI and PPI in China moderate further, loan growth, exports and imports gain more than expected.
6) April machinery orders in Japan rise more than forecasted.
Negatives:
1) Spanish bond yields spike on heels of 100b euro of extra borrowing to finance bank bailout. Italian yields also get dragged up.
2) US retail sales in May soft as drop in gasoline prices offset by iffy labor market and modest income growth.
3) Initial Jobless Claims total 386k, 11k more than expected and the 9th week in a row above 370k.
4) UoM confidence in June falls to lowest of the yr as both current conditions and the outlook fall.
5) IP unexpectedly falls .1% m/o/m.
6) June NY mfr’g survey falls 14.8 pts to weakest since Nov ’11..
7) Core CPI growth remains sticky at 2.3% y/o/y, matching the fastest pace since Sept ’08, PPI core up 2.7% y/o/y
8) Chinese retail sales and IP grow less than expected in May.
9) India’s wholesale inflation up 7.55% y/o/y, more than estimated ahead of RBI rate meeting Monday. IP up just .1%. Will slowest growth in 10 yrs offset still high inflation?
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