Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Yields in Spain and Italy back off from retest of recent highs.
2) China’s retail sales in June rise 13.7% y/o/y, above est of 13.4%.
3) China CPI up 2.2% y/o/y in June, slowest gain since Jan ’10 and PPI drops 2.1%, biggest since Nov ’09.
4) In terms of generating short term growth, Chinese loan growth of 920b yuan in June is more than estimates of 880b and the 2nd most since Jan ’11.
5) Brazil and South Korea cut rates as they’ve given themselves plenty of room by keeping rates ABOVE the rate of inflation unlike other central banks.
6) IP in Euro zone in May unexpectedly rises .6% m/o/m but still down 2.8% y/o/y.
7) US May trade deficit falls almost $2b as exports rise to 2nd highest level ever.
8) With mortgage rates falling to another record low, purchase apps rise 3.3%.
9) UoM one yr inflation expectations fall to lowest since Oct ’10 likely due to continued drop in gasoline prices.
10) June import prices fall 2.7% mostly led by energy.
11) 10 yr note auction off the charts in measurements of demand.
Negatives:
1) China’s economy in Q2 slows to the weakest growth since Q1 ’09.
2) Chinese imports grow just 6.3% in June, about half expectations and a precursor to future exports thus offsetting the impact of slightly better exports in June.
3) Australia unexpectedly lost jobs in June.
4) Japanese machinery orders in May fall about 15%, much more than est of a 2.6% drop.
5) NFIB small business optimism index not optimistic as it falls to 8 month low.
6) UoM confidence in July falls to 7 month low.
7) Notwithstanding record low in mortgage rates, refi apps fall to 6 week low.
8) PPI unexpectedly rises .1% m/o/m, modest but core rate still up 2.6% y/o/y. Inflation sticky as money printing meets global economic slowdown in battle royale.
What's been said:
Discussions found on the web: