Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) ECB gets off its arse and swings hammer of the printing press.
2) Italian consumer confidence bounces slightly off lowest level since at least ’96.
3) China’s July HSBC flash mfr’g index rises to 6 month high but at 49.5 is below 50 for a 9th straight month.
4) With record low mortgage rates, refi apps rise to the most since Apr ’09.
5) Jobless Claims fall to 353k, 27k less than expected but throw it out with seasonal distortions from historical auto plant shutdowns that aren’t shutting down this summer.
6) UoM final July confidence ticks up a touch from preliminary but finishes at lowest of the yr.
7) KC region mfr’g PMI up 2 pts to +5.
Negatives:
1) US Q2 GDP up just 1.5%, slowest in a yr with no improvement seen in Q3.
2) June Pending Home Sales unexpectedly falls 1.4% vs est of up .3%. NAR cites lack of inventory and not demand but it’s not like job and income growth has suddenly picked up.
3) June New Home Sales total 350k, down 32k and 22k less than expected.
4) Notwithstanding record low mortgage rates, purchase apps fall 3.2%.
5) Ex the volatile headline #, June Durable goods weak.
6) Richmond mfr’g falls to -17 from -3.
7) German IFO business confidence falls to lowest since Mar ’10.
8) UK GDP in Q2 falls .7% q/o/q, down for 3rd straight quarter.
9) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index holds at 46.4 but below 50 for 6th straight month.
10) French business confidence drops to lowest since Feb ’10.
11) Italian business confidence near 3 yr lows.
12) In addition to Valencia, 6 other Spanish regions asking for help.
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