Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) According to Bankrate.com, the average 30 yr mortgage rate fell to an historic low of 3.41% last night, down 7 bps on the week.
2) Initial Jobless Claims total 359k, down from 385k last week.
3) Personal Spending in Aug rise .5% m/o/m, the most since Feb (but up just .1% after adjusting for inflation) .
4) Conference Bd Consumer Confidence up 9 pts in Sept to 70.3, well above est and the best since Feb as answers to labor market questions improve slightly.
5) Richmond mfr’g improves to +4 from -9, Dallas mfr’g remains negative but less so at -.9 vs est of -2.7.
6) July S&P/CS home price index up 1.2% y/o/y to most since Jan ’11 seasonally adjusted with 16 of 20 cities up y/o/y.
7) German unemployment rate holds at 6.8% with number of unemployed up as expected.
8) German and Italian consumer confidence about as expected.
9) Italian and French business confidence about as expected.
Negatives:
1) Spanish IBEX down 6.3% on the week, 2 yr yield near 3.5% and 10 yr near 6% on upside. Budget news one thing, implementation and results another. Bank bailout needs in line with expectations but well below reality.
2) German IFO business confidence falls to lowest since Feb ’10.
3) Euro zone Economic Confidence falls to 3 yr low.
4) Aug Durable Goods orders fall sharply mostly due to nondefense aircraft orders. Ex transports still down and while non defense cap goods ex aircraft orders rise 1.1%, July revised to sharp 5.2% decline. Inventories to shipments ratio rises to most since Nov ’11.
5) Chicago PMI falls below 50 for 1st time since Sept ’09 at 49.7. New Orders fall to 47.4.
6) Aug Pending Home Sales fall 2.6% vs est of up .3%.
7) Aug New Home Sales total 373k, 7k less than est.
8) MBA said purchase apps rise just .7% and refi’s up only 3.3% notwithstanding record low rates.
9) Personal Income in Aug up just .1% m/o/m and down .3% after inflation. Savings rate falls to 3.7% from 4.1%, a 4 month low.
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