Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) US Sept Retail Sales rise more than expected almost across the board.
2) Housing starts and Permits in Sept well above estimates.
3) Months supply of existing homes falls to 5.9 from 6, the lowest since Mar ’06 as Sept sales total 4.75mm, the 2nd highest since the tax credit boosted month in May ’10 and homes for sale fall to lowest since Mar ’12.
4) Purchase apps up just .9% but higher for 4th week.
5) Philly mfr’g positive again at +5.7 after 5 straight mo’s below zero but components very mixed.
6) Initial Claims normalize last week’s distorted figure with a 4 week avg near the lowest since mid Sept.
7) Moody’s keeps Spain’s credit rating IG, bonds rally on week even as Rajoy continues to drag his feet.
8) Greek stocks rally 5.5% on the week to the best level since Sept ’11 and bonds at new post exchange high.
9) German ZEW investor economic confidence 6 mo’s out the least negative in 5 mo’s.
10) UK unemployment falls to 7.9%, lowest since June ’11 with claims down in Sept.
11) Chinese retail sales, IP, FAI, M2, exports all better than expected and CPI moderates to 1.9%.
12) With room to do so, Thailand joins South Korea and cuts rates.
Negatives:
1) NY mfr’g in Oct remains below zero for a 3rd straight month at -6.2 vs -10.4 in Sept and est of -4.0.
2) Sept CPI rises .6% m/o/m to a new record high.
3) IP better than expected but prior month revised down and y/o/y gain of 2.8% matches lowest since Nov ’11.
4) According to Bankrate.com, avg 30 yr mortgage rate rises 10 bps on the week to 3.49%, obviously historically low but impact from Fed quickly ran its course with not much of a drop (8 bps).
5) Refi apps fall for 2nd week by 5.3%.
6) China’s Q3 GDP growth of 7.4% is slowest since Q1 ’09.
7) German ZEW current conditions component falls to lowest since June ’10.
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