Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Oct Payrolls increase a net 171k (est 125k), 184k (est 123k) of which in the private sector which is the most since Feb helped by an unexpected increase in mfr’g hiring.
2) ISM mfr’g increases to 51.7 from 51.5 and touch above est of 51.0 with this caveat, there is “continued concern over a fragile global economy and soft orders across several mfr’g sectors.”
3) Initial Claims fall to 363k from 372k.
4) Q3 Productivity up 1.9% vs est of 1.8%, unit labor costs unexpectedly fall by .1% (keep margins elevated) .
5) While slightly less than expected, Oct consumer confidence 72.2 up from 68.4 in Sept, best since Feb ’08 as answers to labor market questions improve and those that plan a vacation at 25 yr high!
6) CS home price index rises to highest since Nov ’10.
7) Oct retail comps better than expected.
8) Mfr’g PMI’s increase in China, Taiwan, South Korea and India from prior month.
9) If you like QE, BoJ brings another 11T yen.
10) India cuts RR to help economy.
Negatives:
1) A disaster storm that wrecks havoc on lives and property.
2) Oct unemployment rate ticks up to 7.9% as increase in labor force offsets rise in household survey. Avg hours worked unch at 34.4 vs est 34.5. Avg hourly earnings unch m/o/m vs est of up .2% and up just 1.6% y/o/y, below CPI of 2.0%.
3) MBA said refi’s fell 6% to 8 week low and purchases up just .5% after 8.3% drop last week notwithstanding the Fed’s best efforts.
4) Vehicle sales in Oct total 14.22mm vs est 14.9mm.
5) Savings rate falls to 3.3% from 3.7%, lowest since Nov ’11 as REAL income is flat.
6) German unemployment rises more than expected.
7) Final euro zone mfr’g PMI 45.4 v 46.1 in Sept, 15th month below 50.
8) UK consumer confidence at 6 mo low and mfr’g PMI falls to 47.5.
9) Euro zone Economic Confidence at lowest since July ’09.
10) Canada adds just 1.8k jobs vs est of 10k.
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