Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (11/23/12)

Succinct summation of week’s events:


1) China’s HSBC Nov preliminary mfr’g PMI rises to 50.4 v 49.5, above 50 for 1st time since Oct ’11 (Shanghai index though doesn’t respond).
2) Of 70 cities surveyed, 35 see property price increases in China in Oct vs 31 in Sept.
3) Euro zone mfr’g/services index holds steady at 45.8 vs 45.7 in Oct but still just off the lowest since June ’09.
4) German IFO business confidence unexpectedly rises to 101.4 from 100 in Oct but back to the Sept level. Expectation was 99.5.
5) No official Greek deal (won’t be the last deal) yet but market expects one as Greek stocks rally 7% on the week as does the Greek 10 yr bond (that could benefit from buyback).
6) French business confidence up 3 pts in Nov to 88 from weakest since Aug ’09.
7) Cease fire between Israel and Hamas.
8) US Oct Housing Starts total 894k, 54k better than expected and the most since July ’08 led by multi family. Still long way to go as still 60% below high and near trough levels of the ’81 and ’91 recessions. Overall permits stay relatively elevated.
9) Existing Home Sales 50k better than est but prior month revised down by 60k. At 4.79mm, it’s 2nd best since Apr/May ’10 tax credit induced boost. Perspective, single family home sales at same level as Dec 1997.
10) NAHB home price index rises 5 pts to 46, best since May ’06, getting close to breakeven of 50.
11) MBA said purchase apps rise 2.7% after an 11% rise in prior week, matches highest since June.
12) Very young data point with little history but the Markit US mfr’g PMI rises to 52.4 from 51, the best since June and we’ll see if it correlates with ISM out on Dec 3.


1) MBA said refi apps fell 3.2% on the week after 13.1% jump last week but still remains 6.5% below the average since the Fed started QE3.
2) Final Nov UoM confidence at 82.7 is tempered from preliminary reading of 84.9 but holds steady with 82.6 in Oct, best since Sept ’07.
3) Moody’s takes away France’s triple A rating 10 months after S&P did. French 10 yr yield up 9 bps on the week but CDS cheaper by 5 bps, and CAC up everyday this week.
4) China’s FDI falls .2% y/o/y in Oct vs est of up 1%. It’s down for 11th month in past 12.
5) Japanese exports down 6.5% in Sept y/o/y, lower by 20.1% to China and by 11.6% to EU. Relief from weak yen seen in Nikkei rally.





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