Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) The election is finally over and this little girl has stopped crying.
2) We’re a step closer to not hearing the saying “fiscal cliff” for hopefully a long time.
3) Nov UoM confidence rises to 84.9 from 82.6, the best since July ’07 and one yr inflation expectations fall to 3% from 3.1%.
4) Oct Trade Deficit at $41.5b is $3.5b below estimates as exports rise to record high and could lead to .2-.3% increase to Q3 GDP revision.
5) China’s IP, retail sales, and fixed asset investment all rise a touch more than expected in Oct. PMI services index up 1.8 pts to 55.5. CPI moderates to 1.7%, the slowest since June ’10.
6) Australia creates more jobs than expected in Oct.
7) RBA, Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia all keep rates unchanged as expected.
Negatives:
1) Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Pres insists again higher taxes on an economy that has risen 1.8% on average in 2012. Instead of “fiscal cliff,” “recession” will be the new saying in 2013 as he wants to redistribute our way to prosperity as its worked so well in CA.
2) Oct ISM services falls to 54.2 from 55.1 and below estimates of 54.4. New orders and exports fall.
3) Sept Job Openings fall to 5 month low.
4) German IP, factory orders and export orders all decline in Sept.
5) French and Italian IP also fall again.
6) UK PMI services falls to 50.6 vs 52, weakest since Dec ’10.
7) Australia, a Chinese proxy, exports fall to lowest since Feb ’11 with merchandise exports specifically to China down 6.5%, 8) Japanese machinery orders fall twice expectations.
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