Succinct summations for week ending July 19, 2013.
Positives:
1. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed at new all-time highs.
2. TBTF banks reported solid earnings, XLF closed at its highest level since December 2008.
3. Bond yields fall on the week with 10 yr note yield at 2 ½ week low.
Homebuilder confidence soars to 57 v expectations of 51, its largest two-month increase in over 20 year
4. U.S. initial jobless claims fell 24k last week to 334k v expectations of 345k.
5. Bernanke sees highly accommodative policy for the foreseeable future.
6. Furniture sales were up 2.4% m/o/m in June, housing remains a strong tailwind.
7. The Philly fed index came in at 19.8 v expectations of 8.
8. U.S. outlook revised to stable from negative by Moody’s.
9. The Nasdaq 100 rose 14 days in a row (longest streak ever).
11. June industrial production rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. (we’re glass half full people)
12. Empire state manufacturing index came in at 9.46 in July, v expectations of 7.84.
Negatives:
1. Detroit becomes the largest U.S. city ever to file for bankruptcy.
2. Tough week for Tech: Intel and Microsoft post ugly numbers and lose a combined ~35B of market cap; Google & AMD not much better.
3. CPI came in at 0.5% v expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI in line at 0.2%.
4. Higher gasoline prices accounted for two-thirds of the rise. AAA said gasoline prices up another $.10 per gallon on the week.
5. Implied inflation expectations in 10 yr TIPS up 11 bps on the week to 2.20%, most since early June. 5yr5yr forward breakeven up 16 bps on the week also to highest since early June.
6. MBA mortgage applications index fell for the fifth straight week. Refi’s fell 4.2% to a 2 yr low
7. U.S. housing starts fell 9.9% to 836k v expectations of 960k.
8. Retail sales grew 0.4% v expectations of 0.8%. Core retail sales (ex-auto, gasoline) rose just 0.15%, the weakest gain since January.
9. UK citizen suffers from elevated inflation vs modest wage gains as CPI rises to 2.9% up from 2.7% and the fastest since April ’12.
10. China’s Q2 GDP moderates to 7.5%, in line, but 2nd slowest since Q1 ’09. IP and FAI also grow less than expected in June.
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