Succinct Summations week ending September 6, 2013.
Positives:
1. Despite all the taper and Syria noise, the markets ended the week in the green (with a modest intra-day reversal Friday).
2. Auto sales total 16.02mm (Annualizd), 200k more than expected — its the most since November ’07.
3. The Fed saw “modest to moderate” growth across the country, according to the latest Beige Book.
4. Unemployment comes in at 7.3%, the lowest since December ’08.
5. Average hourly earnings rise 2.2% year over year — this is the best since July ’11
6. Jobless claims fell 9k to 323k v expectations of 330k.
7. July construction spending rose 0.6% v expectations of a 0.4% rise.
8. ISM Manufacturing rose to 55.7 — the highest reading since June 2011.
9. U.K. construction is on fire, PMI came in at 59 with total output rising at its fastest pace since ’07.
10. China services PMI hit a 5-month high; China HSBC PMI rose to 50.1, up from an 11-month low of 47.7 in July.
Negatives:
1. Oil headed for the highest close since May ’11 — though Congressional approval for Syrian strike remains uncertain, international cooperation is mixed.
2. The 10-year has risen above 3% for the first time since July 2011. It’s not the absolute number that is worrisome, but the rate at which rates have accelerated.
3. Scary news out of Syria continues to dominate the headlines. Putin said he will continue arms sales to Syria.
4. U.S. PMI fell to 53.1 v expectations of 54. This data is consistent with moderate improvement in manufacturing business conditions.
5. The participation rate fell to the lowest levels since 1978.
6. Nasty revisions to July’s NFP, down to 104k from 162k.
7. ADP jobs report came in at 176k v expectations of 198k.
8. The latest Beige Book revealed that lending activity has weakened.
9. German exports unexpectedly fall 1.1% m/o/m in July vs the estimate of up .7%. July IP also falls and June revised lower.
10. Both India’s manufacturing and services indices show August contraction and further confirms the dramatic slowing in its economy.
Feel better Batman . . .
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