Fascinating flowchart from Deutsche Bank:
It is wrong to think that contagion stems only from Grexit. An excessive compromise with Greece could result in moral hazard, particularly in relation to structural reforms. This could undermine the medium-term stability of the euro area. The tail risk is that Greek politicians try to leverage too much the fear of Grexit “contagion risk”. We complete our analysis by looking at the vulnerability of other euro peripherals and the ex-post tools to limit contagion.
Source: Deutsche Bank, The Greek Issue