Succinct summations of events for the week ending July 31, 2015
Positives:
1. Durable goods increased 3.4% in June, above the 2.6% expected.
2. Case-Shiller home price index rose 4.4% y/o/y.
3. Weekly jobless claims rose to 267k off historically low levels; still very positive number.
4. July Markit services PMI rose to 55.2 from 54.8, a rebound from the lowest read since January last month. The average year to date is now 56.3 and remains below the average seen last year of 57.1.
5. Chicago PMI rose to 54.7, the highest reading since July
6. Japanese labor force participation rate rose to 60%, the most since September ’10, the size of the labor force increased by 390k and the number of employed rose by 340k.
Negatives:
1. Consumer confidence came in at 90.9, a ten-month low and below the 99.3 expected; Consumer sentiment fell to 93.1, down from 93.3 and below the 94 expected.
2. Pending home sales fell 1.8% vs expectations for a 1% gain.
3. US economy grew by 2.3% in Q2 at an annualized pace, less than the 2.5% estimate. This follows a revised Q1 growth rate of .6% vs the last print of a contraction of .2%.
1H growth rate = 1.5%.
4. Employment cost index rose a record low of just 0.2% vs expectations of 0.6%.
5. Average 30 yr mortgage rate fell 6 bps w/o/w to 4.17% as the MBA said mortgage applications were unchanged. Purchases were down .1% while refi’s were higher by 1.6%. Purchases still remain up a good 17.5% y/o/y. Refi’s are higher by 6% y/o/y.
6. There was an upward surprise in the price deflator which grew by 2%, well above the estimate of 1.5%. Also, the core PCE was up 1.8% q/o/q.
