Succinct Summations for the week ending August 19th 2016.
Positives:
1. U.S. Stocks reached new all-time highs this week as Dow, S&P and Nasdaq rallied 3 consecutive days, before giving back a little to end the week.
2. Initial Jobless claims fell to 262k, less than expected, and down from 266k last week.
3. Housing starts came in at a 1.211 million annualized rate, above the 1.180 million expected and up from 1.186mm in June. Multifamily starts rose by 21k m/o/m to 441k vs 387k one year ago.
4. July CPI was flat headline as expected and rose .1% core; On a year over year basis, prices were up 0.8% headline and 2.2% core, both one tenth less than expected.
5.Industrial production rose 0.7%, above the 0.3% expected rise.
6. NAHB home builder sentiment index for August rose to 60 from 58 in July
Negatives:
1. Bill Dudley, tells us the market is under pricing the possibility of rate hikes and that he wants to go again soon. Rate hike odds for the September meeting goes from 16% to 24%
2. Inflation still isn’t showing up in CPI, which came in flat m/o/m and rose 0.8% y/o/y, both below expectations.
3. Mortgage applications fell 4%, the fourth decline in five weeks.
4. For the 3rd straight month in June there was large net foreign selling of US Treasury notes and bonds;
5. Japanese exports fell 14% y/o/y — the biggest drop since 2009.
6. NY manufacturing index in August fell back into contraction at -4.2 from +.6 in July
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