Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.14.16

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

 

Positives:

1. Initial jobless claims were 246k, 7k less than expected;  revisions were down 3k to last week’s number. This level of claims was last seen in 1973.

2.Retail sales in auto’s and building materials had sales gains up 1.1% and 1.4% respectively.

3. US import prices were basically unchanged in September m/o/m and were flat ex fuels. On a y/o/y basis, prices ex fuel fell .7%.

4. Business inventories in August rose .2%, one tenth more than the estimate and with a .2% sales increase.

5. Producer prices in China rose .1% y/o/y in September. That was the first positive print since January 2012.

6. This goddamned election only has 24 days to go . . .

Negatives:

1. Core retail sales (ex auto’s, gasoline and building materials) in September saw a gain of just 0.1% month over month, three tenths less than expected.Core sales grew by just 2.5% y/o/y, the slowest pace of gain since November 2015

2. Fed’s September Labor Market Conditions Index fell to -2.2 and is now negative for the 8th month in the past 9.

3. UoM October consumer confidence index fell to 87.9 from 91.2. That was 4 pts below the estimate and the weakest print since September 2015.

4. PPI grew by 0.3% m/o/m in September and .2% ex food and energy. Both were one tenth more than expected. The y/o/y headline gain of .7% is the most since December 2014.

5. Purchase applications fell 2.6% w/o/w. Refi apps fell by 8% as the average 30 yr mortgage rate rose to a 3 week high.

6. This goddamned election still has 24 days to go . . .

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