Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events for the week ending November 11, 2016
1. Donald Trump’s election will likely increase fiscal stimulus, reduce regulatory restrictions, and cutr corporate taxes.
2. Dow Industrials hit a record high on the recognition that fiscal stimulus is soon to replace monetary stimulus.
3. Initial jobless claims fell 11k to 254k, 6k less than expected but brings the 4 week average to 260k from 258k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose 18k off the lowest level since 2000.
4. Preliminary November UoM consumer confidence index rose to 91.6 from 87.2 in October and was above the estimate of 87.9. It’s the best level since June but is about in line with the year to date average of 91.1.
5. Mortgage applications to buy a home rose 1.4% w/o/w off the lowest level since January and is up almost 11% y/o/y.
6. NFIB October small business index rose to 94.9 from 94.1 in September. It’s at the best level since last December. Wage pressures were noticeable in the Compensation data.
1. Donald Trump’s election will likely see raising tariffs, create trade wars and build protectionist walls.
2. Bond market bubble is showing signs of vulnerability given the rapidity and quickness of this interest rate rise.
3. Refis fell 2.7% and are down for the 5th straight week to the weakest pace since June as rates moved higher again.
4. China’s exports in both yuan and dollar terms fell more than expected in October and is not getting the hoped for lift from a weaker yuan.
5. Retail sales in the eurozone fell for the 2nd straight month by 0.2% but was about in line with the estimate. The y/o/y gain of 1.1% is the slowest in two years.