We may be surprised at how things play out…

Michael Liebreich (@MLiebreich) is Chairman of the Advisory Board at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a company he founded in 2004 that was acquired by Bloomberg L.P. in 2009.

Following Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, joining Syria and Nicaragua, he posted a 10-part Tweet storm. It is a very counter-intuitive, second level thinking on how this plays out; I thought it was insightful enough to reproduce here.

 

1. I’m not sure @RealDonaldTrump pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement is such a bad thing. We may be surprised at how things play out. It is very counter-intuitive, exhibits good Second level thinking, and could very well play out as @MLiebreich expects:

2. The figures Trump quoted on the costs of Paris to US are pure tosh. If that’s all he’s got, it’s trivially debunked, will not age well.

3. It’s no longer possible to pretend Trump is anything other than a buffoon. This will have domestic as well as international consequences.

4. Internationally, US officials will be shocked by their pariah status, not just on climate. The world has moved on since the Dubya years.

5. Far from encouraging other countries to quit Paris, it will strengthen their resolve. The EU and India must now deliver or be humiliated.

6. Domestically, this should mark the point when sensible Republicans finally start rowing back to the scientific and social mainstream.

7. This will spur a tidal wave of climate action by US states, cities, businesses & citizens. I bet the US will meet its Paris 2030 pledge.

8. So pulling out of Paris stiffens everyone else’s resolve to act on climate, marginalising Trump and the anti-climate headbangers. Sweet!

9.Finally FWIW: EU leaders miscalculated in ruling out renegotiation. It’s a voluntary deal FFS! Let him demand an extra scoop or whatever.

10. I nearly forgot! A number of clean energy technologies are beyond the tipping point & will keep eating fossil market share in any case.

 

Good stuff, thanks Michael

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