Succinct Summations for the week ending June 21st, 2019
Positives:
1. Markets continued their rally, adding 3 percent for the week.
2. FOMC did not think the economy was soft enough to warrant a rate cut. They left the Federal funds rate target level unchanged at 2.25% – 2.50%.
3. Same store sales rose 5.4% w/o/w, higher than the previous increase of 5.0%.
4. Crude oil inventories fell 3.1M w/o/w from 485.5M to 482.4M.
5. Jobless claims fell 6k w/o/w from 222k to 216k.
6. Housing starts came in at 1.269M for May, above the expected 1.239M.
Negatives:
1. Trump is politicizing what an apolitical bureaucracy. Recall he complained in 2015 that the FOMC was “keeping interest rates unjustifiably low.”
2. To protect their own institution, the FOMC is resisting POTUS political pressure; this could develop into a problem.
3. Existing home sales came in at 5.340M in May, lower than February’s 5.480M.
4. Housing market index came in at 64 for June, below the expected 67.
5. MBA mortgage purchase and refinance apps fell 4.0% w/o/w after previous increases
6. The US current account came in at $-130.4B for Q1, larger than the expected deficit of $124.3B.
Thanks, Matt!
