Coincident State Indexes (October 2022)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia


The Coincident State Indexes for October 2022 snuck out last week right before Thanksgiving. You might have missed it during the holiday week, but it’s worth reviewing.

The specifics are noteworthy:

-Over the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, making a one-month diffusion index of -4.

-Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 36 states, decreased in 11 states, and remained stable in three

-The 3-month diffusion index is 50 (breakeven)

The economy is slowing, and some states are doing great, some okay, some less so. The coincident index can show you exactly where:

Texas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are all booming. California, Washington, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, South Dakota, Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia are all expanding.

The down states: Montana, Wyoming Oklahoma, West Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, and Maine are all contracting; slowing (a little less) are Kansas Arizona, and Mississippi.

The FOMC increases are having an impact.



Signs of Softening (July 29, 2022)

Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022)

Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022)

Coincident Index by States (May 22, 2008)


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