Of all the dumb things Wall Street is infamous for, perhaps none is sillier than the all too regular forecasting game. Quarterly earnings, Non-farm payrolls, annual S&P predictions, oil prices, inflation rates, FOMC cuts — it’s a never-ending parade of predictions, forecasts, and guestimates, most of which are wildly, often laughably wrong.
Guessing the revenues and profits of any company is tough enough; it becomes even more difficult for any company with only a few years of history.
Allow me to present to you Exhibit A in whatever subsequent litigation arises, via the WSJ:
“SpaceX’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis shared with top investors Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter.
Morgan Stanley told investors the rocket maker’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2040 could top $2.7 trillion, the people said.”
I find it hilarious that anyone imagines they forecast revenues and/or profits a decade and a half into the future, let alone $3.4 trillion. Hey, you gotta move some shares, and this seems to be one way to accomplish that.
Just recall whatever you were thinking back in 2012 about 2026 (or the early 2010s about the mid 2020s) — was Artificial Intelligence the top of your list? Intel finally rallying after the US government took a 10% stakle in it? Korea up 4X? GameStop / meme-stock short squeeze? Silicon Valley Bank / digital bank run? 500 basis point rate hikes in 2022? Did you anticipate the pandemic, the rise of EVs, the invasion of Ukraine, or either Trump elections? January 6, or October 7? A treatment/cure for Pancreatic Cancer?
The world is composed of countless co-variables — not only things we cannot predict, but also secondary effects and unforeseen consequences that are even more impossible to forecast — the further out you look, the number of possible outcomes increases exponentially.
So much happens over the course of a year that it makes forecasting challenging; 10-15 years into the future is utterly laughable.
Look, I get it, analysts’ jobs are hard enough as is, and many of them are justifiably terrified about being replaced by Claude.
Still, f*ckery tomfoolery like this does not give one confidence in this IPO process…
Previously:
Is SpaceX IPO Breaking Capitalism? (May 13, 2026)
“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition (January 2, 2025)
Nobody Knows Anything (May 5, 2016)
The Folly of Forecasting (June 7, 2005)
Nobody Knows Anything (Archive)
See also:
SpaceX won’t make the S&P 500 (FT, June 5, 2026)
Source:
Morgan Stanley Sees SpaceX’s Revenue Reaching $3.4 Trillion in 2040
By Corrie Driebusch
WSJ, June 5, 2026
