Fooled Ya!
I am heading out for the long weekend, and then off to speak at a CFA conference, so expect light postings the next week (Reads continue...
Analysts’ S&P500 Earnings Expectations
Fascinating look at the tendency for analysts to overestimate earnings, except at market lows, when they under-estimate them: ...
Strategists: Full of Bull
“Salil Mehta is a two-time Administration executive, leading Treasury/TARP’s analytics team, as well as PBGC’s policy, research,...
Trump: The Economy is in a Bubble (No, its not)
“Remember the word bubble? You heard it here first.” So said Donald Trump at a campaign event in Cedar Rapids,...
What Do Donald Trump and Markets have in Common?
Christmas came early this year, and my present is: Donald J. Trump, who has given us all a delightful graduate level course in...
Attention Forecasters: STFU!
“Forecasting security prices is not properly a part of security analysis.” –Benjamin Graham, economist and professional...
Seattle. Chicago. Los Angeles. Min Wage Lies Travel.
@TBPInvictus here The AEI’s Mark Perry has taken his nonsense – his Lies About Geography and Minimum Wage Tour – on...
A Brief Word to Forecasters: STFU!
My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the annual forecasting foolishness so...
The Latest Cognitive Dissonance: Weak Recovery is all Dodd...
Don’t Blame Dodd-Frank for the Slow Recovery The law isn’t perfect, but it hasn’t hurt small-business lending....
Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts?
Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts? Michael D. Bauer and Erin McCarthy FRBSF Economic Letter, September 21, 2015 ...