Fooled Ya!
I am heading out for the long weekend, and then off to speak at a CFA conference, so expect light postings the next week (Reads continue...
Analysts’ S&P500 Earnings Expectations
Fascinating look at the tendency for analysts to overestimate earnings, except at market lows, when they under-estimate them: ...
Strategists: Full of Bull
“Salil Mehta is a two-time Administration executive, leading Treasury/TARP’s analytics team, as well as PBGC’s policy, research,...
Trump: The Economy is in a Bubble (No, its not)
Trump’s Bubble Predictions Are for Losers The Donald’s economic forecasts are no better than guesswork. Bloomberg December...
What Do Donald Trump and Markets have in Common?
Christmas came early this year, and my present is: Donald J. Trump, who has given us all a delightful graduate level course in...
Attention Forecasters: STFU!
Would you let a mystic manage your investment portfolio? Washington Post, November 28, 2015 “Forecasting...
Seattle. Chicago. Los Angeles. Min Wage Lies Travel.
@TBPInvictus here The AEI’s Mark Perry has taken his nonsense – his Lies About Geography and Minimum Wage Tour – on...
A Brief Word to Forecasters: STFU!
My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the annual forecasting foolishness so...
The Latest Cognitive Dissonance: Weak Recovery is all Dodd...
Don’t Blame Dodd-Frank for the Slow Recovery The law isn’t perfect, but it hasn’t hurt small-business lending....
Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts?
Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts? Michael D. Bauer and Erin McCarthy FRBSF Economic Letter, September 21, 2015 ...