Do We Have Inflation?
Barron’s jumps on the "We Have Inflation" bandwagon this week, with two editorials acknowledging what Big Picture readers...
Will the US Economy Decelerate Rapidly as Boomers Retire?
> Bloomberg reports that a "Revolutionary" Federal Reserve study is "shaking economists’ forecasts by suggesting...
Did the Yield Curve Send a “False Alarm?”
"So much for the inverted yield curve." >Or so says a recent Bloomberg column. If I read this correctly, any inversion that...
Q1 Performance versus Q2-Q4: Any Correlation?
Mark Hulbert asks an interesting question: What does a strong first quarter imply for the rest of the year? On the one hand, we know that...
Fed Gets New Excuse to Keep Tightening Rates
Short version: A group of Fed researchers presented a paper that rebuts the slack in the labor market argument. The Fed, therefore, is...
Real Fed Fund Rates
Last week, we looked at the historical range of Federal Reserve Funds since 1946. It was a simple mean reversion, and did not...
Does the CPI Reflect Reality?
I almost missed this earlier this week, and its on point to our prior discussion: The WSJ asked its readers: "Does the...
Historical Fed Fund Ranges
As I have stated repeatedly, I do not buy this "One and Done" meme. This is the 3rd attempt at it — the first being last...
CEO Options: Luck — or something else?
The WSJ streak of taking very interesting columns and hiding them on Saturday continues. Yesterday, they asked: Are some CEOs reaping...