Back-to-School Sales: *Weaker Than They Appear
Last week, I noted that the Back-to-School Sales were, at first glance, Surprisingly Strong. I should have known better. It turns out...
The Big Stall
Regular readers of The Big Picture will recognize the sentiment presented below. Its a simple 3 part analysis: 1) The economy is soft; 2)...
A Closer Look at Unemployment
All eyes are on Friday’s NFP Report. With the markets desperately rooting for a Fed cut, especially after yesterday’s rather...
The Ongoing Impact of the Housing Sector
John Mauldin is away this week, and so I contributed to his Outside The Box series in a post called "The Ongoing Impact of...
New Home Sales= Zero Gains, +/-
"The U.S. Commerce Department said Friday that new home sales rose 2.8% in July after falling 4% in June." > That was how...
Real Income Fails to Rise for most of the 2000s
I’ve been talking about this for years, but I am glad to see quantifiable proof has now been adduced. According to IRS data:...
Catching up with the Fed’s Thinking
The WSJ has what appears to be an "All Fed, All the Time" edition out this morning. A combination of articles does a very good...
The NYT, Magazine Cover Indicator, and Mean Reversion
Would someone please explain to the nice folks over at the NYT, or the economics department at the U.C.L.A, the concept of mean...
Attention Robert Novak: The Fed isn’t at Neutral
Neutral Bias? Apparently so, according to the political pundit Robert Novak, in an otherwise cogent piece titled A Rate Cut on Hold....