NFP Day
Today will be quite the interesting Non-Farm Payrolls report. Consensus is for 127,000 new jobs, with a range of 60,000 to 160,000. Why...
What Are Fed Fund Futures Actually Forecasting?
Fascinating discussion on the meaning of the Fed Fund Futures. While many economists have taken to stating this means a likely rate cut...
Case Shiller Housing Composite: Worst since 1991
Pretty amazing: This data release (May 2007) marks the 18th consecutive decline in growth, dating back to December 2005. As the chart...
Durable Goods & GDP
The headline number miss of yesterday’s Durable Goods number got some people worried about GDP today. Following May’s 2.3%...
“Unexpected Weakness in Home Sales”
"David F. Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said the unexpected weakness in recent months had...
NYSE Short Interest Hits New High
I am up in Maine this weekend at Leen’s Lodge, courtesy of David Kotok’s annual economic summit/fly fishing event....
The City That Never Sleeps
Now you know why its called the City that never sleeps: Everyone is up late talking too fast, grinding their teeth. Source:World...
Retail Follow Up
I am meetings this morning, but I needed to get a quick follow up to yesterday’s Retail data. It was mixed, with a negative bias...
The Accelerating BLS Birth/Death Adjustment
I’ve mentioned the B/D adjustment over the years, and how its become an increasingly large portion of the reported BLS new jobs....
Can You Judge a Homebuilder By Its Book Value?
There is a fascinating article in today’s WSJ about a contentious valuation debate: Homebuilders judged by their book value. What...