OER, CPI and the Fed: A Strange Love Story
What do apartment rents in NYC have to do with Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and rising bond yields? According to a recent...
The Value of the Dollar
This week’s Up and Down Wall Street looks at a recent analysis out of QB Partners. They are a hedge fund run by Lee Quaintance and...
Housing is Falling Much Faster than Reported
Real Estate Consultant John Burns has looked at the housing data and reached a rather interesting conclusion: "The housing market...
Inflation Errors (Part II)
Yesterday, we looked at a way to measure actual Inflation: Comparing the "spread" between the Headline CPI data, and that of...
Want to Measure Actual Inflation? See the Core/Headline CPI Spread
As we have previously discussed, inflation remains contained to the rest of the world ex-USA. Globalization be damned, there may be rapid...
CPI & Retail Sales
The rollicking response to Friday’s PPI data makes today’s Consumer Price Index especially significant. Last week, we learned...
Commerce Retail Sales Data: Beware Gas Inflation
Yesterday, we looked at the abysmal Same Store Sales data (Retail Sales = Hard Landing ?) Today, we will get the Commerce...
More on NFP: More Recognition of Disbelief
The WSJ’s Marketbeat reported yesterday that the latest analysis to join our skepticism on NFP is none other than Goldman Sachs:...
NFP: 88k (and I don’t believe even that)
The Payroll numbers are out, and they are not particularly pretty: 88,000 new jobs were created in April, according to BLS. This is the...
NFP: The Return of the Over?
Some time ago, we retired the Over/Under bet on the monthly NFP. The initial number gets so significantly revised, that the first release...