A quick follow-up to last month’s note on slipping coincident indicators: December was relatively stable compared to the...
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At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm (January 31, 2024 ) Investors don’t like recessions. But how...
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What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? I don’t do annual forecasts1 because the short-term is way too random....
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I am popping out of book leave to share this single data point that snuck out over the holidays: The Federal Reserve Bank...
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The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the...
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We spend way too much time trying to predict the future (especially this time of year). Rather than engage in futility, let’s...
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Before your week ends and you head out the door, I wanted to share a new paper from St. Louis Fed. The title: Can Economists...
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With 10 days left in the Third Quarter, it seems that lots of folks have been obsessing about the various GDP Now forecasts. The...
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Econ on the Road Labor, Consumers, Inflation & Data Earlier this month, I spent two and a half hours each way in a car —...
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The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Jawad Mian, Stray Reflections, is below. You can stream and download our full...
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