MiB: Bill Dudley, NY Fed Chief
This week, we speak with Bill Dudley, former president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of...
State Coincident Indexes Improve
A quick follow-up to last month’s note on slipping coincident indicators: December was relatively stable compared to the...
At the Money: Forecasting Recessions
At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm (January 31, 2024 ) Investors don’t like recessions. But how...
Are You Bullish or Bearish in 2024?
What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? I don’t do annual forecasts1 because the short-term is way too random....
State Coincident Indicators Slipping
I am popping out of book leave to share this single data point that snuck out over the holidays: The Federal Reserve Bank...
Forecasting Recessions
The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the...
Slowing U.S. Economy, State by State
We spend way too much time trying to predict the future (especially this time of year). Rather than engage in futility, let’s...
Can Economists Predict Recessions?
Before your week ends and you head out the door, I wanted to share a new paper from St. Louis Fed. The title: Can Economists...
GDP When? (Not Now)
With 10 days left in the Third Quarter, it seems that lots of folks have been obsessing about the various GDP Now forecasts. The...
On the Road (to Camp Kotok)
Econ on the Road Labor, Consumers, Inflation & Data Earlier this month, I spent two and a half hours each way in a car —...