Forecasting & Prediction Discussions

 

Apprenticed Investor: The Folly of Forecasting   (Originally published Thestreet.com, June 7, 2005; Mirror)
Mirror

Worst Predictions for 2008 (TBP, December 31, 2008)

Investing in 2012: Get ahead of forecaster folly (Washington Post December 30, 2011)

Why Do Forecasters Keep Forecasting? (Bloomberg, Dec 11, 2013) The Big Picture

Greenspan 3.0 and Other Random Thoughts (Bloomberg, Dec 20 2013)

The Trick to Making Better Predictions (Bloomberg, June 2 2014) The Big Picture

What’s the Penalty for Pundits Who Get It Wrong? (Bloomberg, June 11, 2014)

The Secret to Perfect Market Forecasts (Bloomberg, July 11 2014)   The Big Picture

Pro Forecasters Stink, You’re Worse (Bloomberg, July 14 2014)

My Prediction: Your Forecast Is Wrong (Bloomberg, Nov 11 2014)

It’s time to market forecasters to admit the errors of their ways (Washington Post, January 16 2015)

Market Forecasts to Ignore in 2015 (Bloomberg, Jan 5 2015)

You’re Smart, But You Can’t Forecast (Bloomberg, Feb 13 2015)

Would you let a mystic manage your investment portfolio? (November 28, 2015)

The Halo Effect: Bad Forecasts by Billionaires (December 18, 2015)

The End Is Nigh! Oops. That Was Only a Forecast. (Bloomberg, May 18 2015)

Oil’s Rebound and Other Wrong-Way Forecasts (Bloomberg, Feb 11 2016)

What Investors Should Ask Themselves (Bloomberg, Feb 12 2016)

The Next Recession Is Coming. Big Deal. (Bloomberg, Oct 14 2016)

In the Mood for Holiday Forecasting Follies (Bloomberg, Nov 21 2016)

No, don’t buy those ‘best stocks to own in 2017’ (Washington Post, December 10 2016)

Fun with Forecasting! (December 14, 2016)

My Annual Predictions for the Coming Year, 2017 Edition (TBP, December 13, 2016)

10 Points About Forecasting and Why We Stink at It (Bloomberg, November 1, 2017)

What Can We Forecast About Next Year? (TBP, December 14, 2017)

Rules for Forecasters (April 8, 2019)

It’s the Most Forecasty Time of the Year (December 6, 2021)

Stop Listening to Pundits (December 8, 2021)