Last month, we looked at the Bush vs. Kerry Ratio. It’s a chart maintained by Martin Pring, a highly regarded market chartist.
Pring applied the tools of technical analysis to political forecasting. Last we looked at the chart — before the debates — the incumbent was sitting pretty. We noted our caveats of charting polling data, but had to admit it was an interesting concept.
I made the observation that “Pring does a nice job of presenting the data as an objective assessment. It will be curious to see if the debate tonight impacts this . . .”
Well, here we are, three debates later. Guess what?
Click for larger graphic
Graphic via Pring Research
The debates did have a significant impact on the charts. Here’s Martin Pring’s comments:
“First, the Bush/Kerry Ratio broke below its recent trading range. Second, the momentum in the bottom panel reversed direction and crossed below its moving average. Momentum buy and sell signals such as this typically last for at least a week. Note how the momentum peaks have been getting progressively lower in the last couple of months, even though the Ratio made a new high recently.All this spells serious trouble for Bush unless he can rally due to some unexpected event or debate performance.