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Today’s WSJ has some comments on everyone’s favorite month:
Ah, autumn: The evenings turn cooler, the children head back to
school — and the stock market blows up.The stock market doesn’t always hit trouble in the fall, of
course. But September long has been far and away the worst month for stocks.And there is plenty to worry about this September: Oil is
approaching $70 a barrel, the Federal Reserve is hard at work raising short-term
interest rates, and September marks the quarter’s end, when companies facing
high analyst expectations may have to warn of profit disappointments.Since 1900, September is the only month in which the Dow Jones
Industrial Average has fallen more often than it has risen. The Dow industrials
have fallen 1.2% in September, on average, making it the only month with an
average decline of any significance. The industrials fell in each of the past
six Septembers, and in 18 of the 25 from 1980 through 2004. More bull markets
have ended in September than in any other month, according to Ned Davis Research
of Venice, Fla.
For October, the average gain is barely above zero. And when
really bad things happen, they somehow do it in October. That is when stocks
crashed in 1929 and 1987. Of the Dow industrials’ 15 worst one-day percentage
declines, seven came during October."
(emphasis mine)
As noted previously, I am looking to buy into the next intermediate lows — which we are on target for, my expectation is from late August to mid-September . . .
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Source:
For Wall Street, Cruelest Month Is September
By E.S. BROWNING
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 15, 2005; Page C1
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB112406091688412853,00.html
If you study economic history you find that in the early days of the stock market, especially before the Fed was created, there was a very strong seasonal swing in credit and financial flows from city banks to country banks to finance the harvest that significantly impacted the stock market.
So my question is, has this averge changed over time– was Sept a lot worse from 1900 to 1933 and has been about averge since 1950 or has the pattern been staple?
Will September be the Cruelest Month?
The Big Picture referes to a Wall Street Journal’s article:
The stock market doesn’t always hit trouble in the fall, of course. But September long has been far and away the worst month for stocks.
Since 1900, September is the only month in which …
events (monthly returns) may be random and independent. people may be looking for a pattern where there is no pattern.
please note I am not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with the preceding two sentences.
or maybe people look for patterns in randomness and create a self-fullfilling prophecy thereby giving the markets seasonal tendencies.