Thanks to the year-end rally, the S&P 500 recently closed a fraction below a new 4-year high.
Today’s offering from CotD compares the average year-end rally for the Dow since 1900 (see the solid blue line) to this 2005’s year-end rally (gold line).
Source: Chart of the Day
As the chart illustrates, the timing of this year’s rally has been fairly typical while the magnitude has been well above average. Perhaps this reflects the snapback from the deep post-Katrina sell off.
Chart of the Day notes that "going forward, if the year-end rally were to continue with a typical year-end structure, then the market should brace itself for a somewhat choppy first half of December followed by a strong finish."
Sounds pretty reasonable, although I never have much of a clue what the market might do on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis . . .