Jonathan Wilmot of CSFB notes that “Risk Appetite, which has been in the euphoria zone, is quickly approaching an 11-year high.” He notes that since 1981 there have been 7 prior euphoria spikes and in six of those episodes, global equity returns posted a new high for the cycle within 3 months.
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Risk Appetite: Too Soon To Panic About Euphoria
Source: Jonathan Wilmot, CSFB
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Wilmot notes that vigilance is in order, but “it is probably too soon to panic.” Spikes into euphoria territory provide less urgent signals than dips into the panic zone. (hope springs eternal, or perhaps it simply reflects the psychological fact that it is easier to remain complacent for an extended period than to persist in a state of panic for weeks or months at a time).
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Quote of the Day:
“Every truth passes through
three stages before it is recognized: In the first it is ridiculed; in the
second it is opposed; in the third it is regarded as self-evident.”
–Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)
Quote squared:
[Quote of the Day:
“Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized: In the first it is ridiculed; in the second it is opposed; in the third it is regarded as self-evident.”
-Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)]
— end of quoting rodeo
I suppose that’s like first being impossible; second being conceivable; and third being destiny.
….like watching a video of a train on a long track with a bridge out. If we were gods, we’d have possession of the video.
RE Schopenhauer: Idol of the recalcitrants. What this man lacked in charm he made up for in intellectual rigor. It’s important to know a little something about quoted folks, so I offer this up on Schopenhauer. He was an avid reader and most of his books bear a rather furious and pressure intensive scribbling in the margins.
Broker/Dealers look like they have put in a high probability weekly top and look ready to put in a monthly top as early as next week.
Wage increases of 0.7% and negative productivity for the first time in six years. Wage inflation? Full employment, albiet, underemployment for many? Productivity says likely so. Globalization logic not holding up? 1970s also had blue collar woes caused by globalization and wage inflation. An interesting mix of data.