Buying SPYs and DIA

For a trade, I am a buyer of Spyders ($127.44) and Diamonds ($112.37).

Let’s see if we do better with these than the Qs.

Note: These are rentals, not long term holds . . .

UPDATE:  May 18, 2006  4:00 pm

Do I suck, or what? My short term trading has become a reliable fade . . . Learn
to say "Sold to You!"

As long as everyone is looking for a bounce, it ain’t gonna happen.


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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Bynocerus commented on May 18

    Ahh Barry, you’re not a reliable fade – just a touch early in the time I’ve been reading this site. Given that you’re 0-3 in the last few days, I’m getting ready to average down (I got stopped out of some trades I placed Wednesday, so I can’t exactly give you hell, and even if I could, I wouldn’t).

    I’ll get really aggressive when JJC starts saying that no one can know where the bottom of this thing is.

  2. emd commented on May 18

    setting up for another ugly close….. this market is SICK SICk SICK. honestly it’s a bit disconcerting how ugly it is and how rapidly it transpired

    you should have fun on CNBC tonight

  3. Get Long Vega commented on May 18

    C. Cornell / Soundgarden channels Mr. Market:

    I got up feeling so down
    I got off being sold out
    I’ve kept the movie rolling
    But the story’s getting old now
    I just looked in the mirror
    Things aren’t looking so good
    I’m looking California
    And feeling Minnesota
    So now you know, who gets mystified
    Show me the power child
    I’d like to say
    That I’m down on my knees today
    It gives me the butterflies
    Gives me away
    Till I’m up on my feet again
    I’m feeling outshined
    Someone let the dogs out
    They’ll show you where the truth is
    The grass is always greener
    Where the dogs are shedding
    I’m feeling that I’m sober
    Even though I’m drinking
    I can’t get any lower
    Still I feel I’m sinking
    So now you know who gets mystified
    Show me the power child
    I’d like to say
    That I’m down on my knees today
    It gives me the butterflies
    Gives me away
    Till I’m up on my feet again
    I’m feeling outshined

  4. Bynocerus commented on May 18

    Also, for those of you who are interested in that sort of thing, the market has more downside momentum in the last two days than it did during Black Monday and Tuesday of 1987. On second thought, I may wanna hold off on getting in front of this train.

  5. casey jones commented on May 18


    Driving that train, high on cocaine,
    Casey Jones is ready, watch your speed.
    Trouble ahead, trouble behind,
    And you know that notion just crossed my mind.
    This old engine makes it on time,
    Leaves Central Station ’bout a quarter to nine,
    Hits River Junction at seventeen to,
    At a quarter to ten you know it’s travlin’ again.
    Driving that train, high on cocaine,
    Casey Jones is ready, watch your speed.
    Trouble ahead, trouble behind,
    And you know that notion just crossed my mind.
    Trouble ahead, Lady in red,
    Take my advice you’d be better off dead.
    Switchman’s sleeping, train hundred and two is
    On the wrong track and headed for you.
    Driving that train, high on cocaine,
    Trouble ahead, trouble behind,
    And you know that notion just crossed my mind.
    Trouble with you is the trouble with me,
    Got two good eyes but you still don’t see.
    Come round the bend, you know it’s the end,
    The fireman screams and the engine just gleams…

  6. Mike commented on May 18

    You guys crack me up.

    How oversold can a bear market get? I’ve seen RSI values that look like an upside down tidal wave on the charts before.

    Are we there yet? No.

    Do we need to be? No.

    Just wait for the rally and buy some in the money puts.

    Less heart burn IMO. You never know when some bad news is really drive things down big time.

    The trend is your friend until the bend at the end (and that ain’t until October – possibly later).

  7. Bynocerus commented on May 18

    My theme song for the day is I Like Dirt by the Chili Peppers. Maybe you can figure out why.

    It’s raining cats and dogs here, we just got a bear raid, and if my secretary asks another person if they’re having a case of the Thursdays (hat tip Office Space) I’m gonna go postal. If it were 1969 again I’d go home and fire up a J, but alas…

  8. Gregor Samsa commented on May 18

    Are you ready for STAG(flation) PARTY? I don’t think Mr. Market is………nor Gentle Ben………

  9. jkw commented on May 18

    If you really think the market is going down, out of the money puts are a better value. For every dollar you spend, you get more delta and more gamma. You can put less money at risk in the event of an unexpected rally with the same gain if the market declines. Just make sure you don’t hold them for too long if the market doesn’t decline.

  10. Bynocerus commented on May 18

    Seriously, last post of the day: If my chart is right, the low measures to NDX 1520. Who’s ready to lose another 5%?

  11. B commented on May 18

    Can I come over and lite up a j. with you? You guys are way too early on these trades. I’ve waited on a long set up all week and it hasn’t come. You’d be stopped out a little less often if you’d let an intraday reversal start to develop. Although, I must admit I expected the bulls to step in before this point.

    Mike, I don’t think anyone thinks the market is going to reverse and make a new high. Or even have a sustainable rally…..yet. We’re looking to trade a technical bounce. They are usually pretty profitable and usually very predictable using certain market readings. Without going back and checking, we likely didn’t experience many preiods of 7 consecutive down days even in 2000-2003. Even then bounces were often and pretty regular, lasting a few days or more. They don’t show up on an RSI reading because all that is is a jiggedy, jaggedy indicator of price relative to price X days ago.

  12. Dave commented on May 18

    I was actually making money until 3:30

  13. Gabe commented on May 18

    I could’nt help but laugh at Kudlow when I heard him saying the fed raising a half point in June would be bullish for stocks. That and other comments I’ ve heard from him makes it obvious he has no clue about how the markets really work. But of course this is why he is a TV commentator and not managing money for a living.

  14. jkw commented on May 18

    The closing news today said that this was the longest losing streak for the NASDAQ in 12 years. It’s been down for 8 days now. I don’t have $COMP data in the right format to analyze trend lengths. My $NDX data says the longest downtrend ever lasted 9 days in March 94 (which is 12 years ago), where the index fell from 418.45 to 380.25 (-9%). It was followed quickly by a climb back to 390 and then a fall to 355 (total drop from peak of about 15% in just over a month). There were only 2 downtrends that lasted 8 days (now 3). There was only one downtrend longer than 6 days in the 2000-2003 time period (it lasted 8 days). If $NDX is down again tomorrow and Monday, it will be a new record. This data is for about 20 years, and trends are based on comparing daily closing prices.

    Can we get any hints on what to look at to identify when technical bounces are likely?

  15. Jack commented on May 18

    I’d venture to say the NASDAQ will rebound to the 200 day ma around 2225-2230, from its current close of 2180. Theres a gap there and intraday price resistance too. Its also about a 33% retracement from todays low.

  16. vf commented on May 18

    who is going to take the market up to the 200 day? there is very little real money stepping in to buy and i doubt they will be chasing anything tomorrow on option expiry day. i was amazed stocks couldn’t mount any rally with futures spiking pre-open. where was the big money? hitting up ticks. sure feels like there is a lot of stock for sale out there. i think they waited too long today and threw in the towel during the last hour but my guess is there are still some leaves on some blotters. but hey be my guest play the trade. you might get lucky, Dell might rally the Nasdaq up to the 200 tomorrow but i bet every fund in sight will be offered there….

  17. jjr commented on May 18

    Forced margin sells were what did in the market at the end of the day today, in my opinion. Margin calls will probably wreak havoc on the market again tomorrow on expiration day. Options expiration exagerrates volatility, from what I’ve seen.

    Looking for a tradable rally early next week, after a capitulation open on Monday.

  18. todd commented on May 19

    The sell-off won’t be complete until Jim Cramer throws up his arms and says, “I have no clue where to go from here” and then makes a joke about the impending cancellation of “Mad Money.” He came close today, but we’re not quite there yet… LOL

  19. dsquared commented on May 19

    ooh look everyone! A “slope of hope”! :-)

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