In early April, we looked at the US dollar doing poorly versus the Euro.
Today, we see another depiction of this via a good chart from Jeff Saut. The dollar has broken its most recent level of support.
To those short the dollar, the trend remains your friend . . .
“Risk versus Reward”
Equity Research Department, Raymond James & Associates
April 16, 2007
The scary part about the fall, it is no longer responding to the Fed hawkish talk. In addition, this lower dollar is exerting additional upward pressure to already rising inflation.
The $USD needs to be adjusted ex. Euro, since the Euro is so volatile. Then everything should be peachy.
Or better yet….$USD should be adjusted ex. everything except the RMB. In that case, the $USD is perfectly fine!!
Positions: short proforma
That’s a brutal graph from a technical standpoint.
The real world consumer prices are unquestionably higher despite the inherently flawed numbers produced by federal bureaucracies, as was pointed out in the comments section from the last post.
I know this is a “big picture” site and individual stock advice is to be found elsewhere, but how much longer can irrationality in US equities continue?
Micheal S and others seem convinced that this is some pre-1929 environment, but how much “pre” is it? 1927? 1925? Nobody has these answers.
As I sit here the US DJIA is up 1% today and world bourses are at all-time highs, yet many on this site are kneading their fists in dismay. As Winston pointed out in the last post, there are reasons why “Don’t fight the tape” and “The trend is your friend” are part of the lexicon of investing.
Obviously, keeping your retirement and/or trading assets in US dollars has been ghastly. Even Euros and the Yen have not outperformed US equities the last year, month or even week.
I’m not trying to start a fight, just wondering when the irrationality will end. Maybe we should look to technical analysis or even Chaos Theory. Anyone?
Technical analysis will tell you a different picture than what is “offered” up in the main stream press….it has been somewhat worthless over the last three months.
One final time: This is a blog….do not confuse what I say HERE with what I DO in the market. Vastly different
Pre- 1929?? I don’t get what you are attributting to me. can you explain??
It’s great for our trade deficit, though… ;^)
I apologize for the misattribution. It was Winston who had said, “At the moment, hope and greed are fueling the markets, driven by easy money. The same thing was occuring in 1929, and the early warnings were ignored.”
MS, I enjoy your comments and the discussions are intellectually stimulating. I’m sorry I confused your comment with someone else’s. My bad.
Please accept my apology.
Reason no body knows when “support” will permanantly end is, all the fabrication in the info. Why not go another five or ten years and bring some real perspective to these spoiled kids living with their parents? Rich will grab more market share of China that way. Too bad there’s the whole environment thing.
Rothschilds and Wellingtons will decide. Their emmisaries the Rockefellars or Kludges or whoever??? will respond in kind.
An interesting analysis would be to use supercomputers to follow the 100 richest family money. Then I bet we’d know. Buffet small fry is putting money into trains. Commodities portend a depression? Who knows man.
NP…..I have made reference to that time period but only in the sense of the rules that are in place to keep the markets from gourging on themselves. They don’t seem to be working at this point…….LOL
“I’m not trying to start a fight, just wondering when the irrationality will end.”
Short answer: No one knows.
John Maynard Keynes: “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
How can you predict the end when there are constant market manipulations? For example, the analysts have quietly lowered the earnings estimates so the companies can beat the estimates this quarter.
actually, looking at the wave pattern in the chart, this might be a good place to look for a bounce to 86-88. maybe. possibly. could be worth betting a ducat.
Kevin has a great one too, of the Yen, on his blog (http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/)
It is funny that every time Paulson declares, “The global economy is as strong in the last couple of years as I’ve seen in a lifetime” the stock market rallies.
Is it some sort of a buy signal for bulls?
It seems that the bulls are conditioned, every time they hear this statement they salivate and rush in front of each other to buy stocks.
The chart looks quite different depending on what the x-basis is. From a EUR viewpoint, the USD is getting crushed. From a JPY viewpoint though, a short USD bet has been a consistent loser for some time.
I couldn’t find a chart (old enough) to link here, but take a look at a LONG TERM chart of the dollar — 1980 – today, and you get a completely different perspective. The “strength” (read: explosion) of the greenback in the 90’s – 2001 was a direct result of falling and stable inflation (compared to the rest of the world) and ultimately the implosion of the Energing currencies. This period (’90- ’01) is an OUTLIER. The US dollar is now “coming back” to the “right level” for stable growth, and low inflation. The Emerging economies have gotten “religion” (e.g. Brazil) and now their currencies will enjoy higher buying power as a result. The short sighted view of the US dollar bears will die away.
Global growth is strong. Global financial conditions are not tight. US firms are becoming more competitive vis-a-vis Europe by the day.
Why is is taken as a given that a stock market that’s modestly outperforming cash is acting “irrationally”?
Yes the “paulsen rally” as I call it….it basically means tht Goldman Sachs is bullish, no big revelation there however when the former CEO of said company says it it’s sort of a tacit approval coming directly from the purveyor of the printing presses to continue to bid it up until…well it can’t be bid up anymore!!…LOL
Fred – here’s another “LONG TERM” perspective:
Note that there was a significant rise in the trade weighted value of the USD in the early to mid-80s, and a deterioration in the balance of payments. This makes perfect sense, imports got cheaper and exports more expensive. After a peak in the TWUSD in the mid-80s, the current account (with a lag) began to move towards balance.
The next episode of USD strength, from the mid-90s to around 2001 showed a similar deterioration in the balance of payments. This time though, the USD strengthened from a somewhat weaker point and not as far, and the current account balance weakened more quickly.
The TWUSD softened after 2001, but the current account has yet to move meaningfully towards balance. History suggests the current account will eventually move back towards balance, and when it does, the probability is that a weaker USD will be part of the picture
Technically, the LT chart of the TWUSD appears to be bouncing weakly off a long term support level.
>>Why is is taken as a given that a stock market that’s modestly outperforming cash is acting “irrationally”?>>
Modestly??? look at where the dollar is relative to the “modest” performance of the stock market over the last two years.
and this is with the administration “supporting” a strong dollar…what happens when it does’nt?
MS – You say “and this is with the administration “supporting” a strong dollar”.
Pray tell, what administration? Hu’s your daddy now ;-)
Nice chart Estr…the superspike in the early mid 80’s was from the Volker hammer. One can clearly see that if you “lop off” the 2 outlier spikes (~’81-’85 and ’90-’01) we are at the trend line.
I’m astonished we don’t see this BIG PICTURE very often.
As the cops say to rubberneckers — “there’s nothing to see here folks…move along!”
SPX is up three and a half percent this year…be generous and call it four with dividends. Cash return YTD is 1.3% or so. 2.7% is pretty modest, particularly given the returns available in other assets.
Given that the US is a net exporter of equity capital, perhaps a catastrophic decline in the dollar would render foreign markets unaffordable and keep more of the money at home. It will certainly raise the profitability of US multinationals.
Of course, these things are irrelevant if your start with your conclusion, cherry pick your supporting facts, and then deride all else as crooked or irrational.
In a world of fiat currencies, market participants crave the currency with the most stability. The last several years have been poor for the US dollar from a stabilty standpoint, so investors flock to Euros, or the British pound, or whichever currency is keeping its value the most stable in terms of gold.
Funny that you get specific only after you’ve cherry picked. You did say the “market” and were not specific…but that’s ok I see how you just did that to support your position of “modest growth”.
This is most certainly NOT modest growth:
now to further your statement let’s look at the dollar over 2year’s since that’s how long the Bushies have been “strong” on it
Does’nt take a rocket scienctist to blow a hole in your “moderate growth for stocks relative to the dollar” theory.
I see an express elevator in the first one while the chart of the dollar is all over the place but the end result is clearly not what you make it out to be when put against stocks.
I guess you did’nt know that..
Why is is taken as a given that a stock market that’s modestly outperforming cash is acting “irrationally”?
I don’t know about the cash part, but with respect to the market in general – today we have homebuilder stocks up after an NAHB report came out that lowered forcasts, used the word “crisis” twice, and suggested that the risks are all to the downside. The stocks, of course, were up prior to the report, and since this report wasn’t supportive of those higher prices it was mostly ignored.
You can’t argue that we have a rational stock market… at least not with respect to stock valuations.
So to summarize, MS, everything that disagrees with a bearish view is irrational or corrupt, but you yourself refuse to “own” the bearish view (exceptions to which you denigrate with the charming ‘Nice Try’), presumably until it starts working, at which point you’ll be all in from the high tick.
As an aside, isn’t Michael Schumacher a bit of an ironic tagname to have for someone who complains about corruption so much?
Sure I can. Economic conditions for the other 95% of the world’s population are doing well. Trailing and estimated P/E ratios in the US are not out of line with historical norms, while interest rates are lower than historical norms.
Those suggesting that earnings are rigged or unreliable, please provide the starting date at which the historical earnings record goes reliable to to fabricated, as I didn’t get that particular memo.
The Yankopomorphic viewpoint that the rest of the world is irrelevant is, it would seem, one reason for the apparent bewilderment over how US equities could have the temerity to rise.
Anybody see Google ringing that Time Warner/AOL bell with their cash purchase of Double Click?
Anybody find it interesting that 2 DJIA stocks who had already reported did not participate in today’s rip roaring rally?
And did the big C beat by 8 cents or miss by 8 cents. I couldn’t tell.
Stocks aren’t near ready for a plunge(though today’s rally was stupid and will be taken care of shortly much like in February), but the economy is. Macro econ is what has and always will “destroy” rallies. I remember the market rallying into 1980 and near historic highs in spring 2001.
The US economy is in bad shape and it leaking into business spending. By this summer, the dam will have busted in that sector creating the grounds for the next recession.
So easy to see and understand. That is what seperates the strong from the weak.
It’s pretty clear that fast expanding credit growth well beyond GDP growth ( including Export-import ) means dollar is being debased.However debasement continues in many currencies as each is trying to gain adavantage over other by manipulating currency.So Forex market movement doesn’t foretell anything.What should be of concern to a debt-ridden society is how fast the interest rates are rising.That’s a bigger concern than just the dollar devaluation.Considering
that the following developments worries me more:
1: China setting up a Govt owned hedge fund ( something like that ) to seek higher return on it’s dollar reserves.Consequence : Less money available for borrowing in debt market.
2.India is mulling setting up two agency to better use it’s dollar reserves such as investing in Infrastructure projects.It’s only a fraction now but we know every gush starts from a trickle.Consequence : RBI will sell treasury bonds and lend money to those two agency at a higher interest (ie yield )
3. Many Central Banks have started a process similar to above.
As we are dealing with Macro-economics expecting grand events to happen at the blink of an eye is mere wishful thinking.It’s more likely that small steps events above will form the big event that is
rising interest rate and secular bear market.
—economic conditions for the other 95% of the world’s population are doing well—
depends on what is meant by ‘well’ and contradicts feb 07 ilo ‘global employment trends’ report, from which:
– “The number of people unemployed worldwide remained at an historical high in 2006 despite strong global economic growth…
– even though more people are working globally than ever before, the number of unemployed remained at an all time high…
– only modest gains in lifting some of the world’s 1.37 billion working poor – those working but living on less than the equivalent of US$ 2 per person, per day – out of poverty, stressing that there weren’t enough decent and productive jobs to raise them and their families above the US$ 2 poverty line.
– “The strong economic growth of the last half decade has only had a slight impact on the reduction of the number of workers who live with their families in poverty and this was only true in a handful of countries. In addition growth failed to reduce global unemployment”, said ILO Director-General Juan Somavia. “What’s more, even with continued strong global economic growth in 2007 there is serious concern about the prospects for decent job creation and reducing working poverty further.”
– For the last decade, economic growth has been reflected more in rising levels of productivity and less in growing employment.”
—please provide the starting date at which the earnings goes reliable to fabricated—
see the sept 2001 Levy Institute Forecasting Center’s SPECIAL RESEARCH REPORT,
Two Decades of Overstated Corporate Earnings
The Surprisingly Large Exaggeration of Aggregate Profits
The Wall Street Journal published a story questioning the magnitude of corporate America’s earnings gains in the past five years in view of the huge, recent write-offs. The Journal addressed the issue citing aggregate profits data. People are starting to ask, Just how widespread and serious is the overstatement of aggregate corporate profits?
The answer is startling. The macroeconomic evidence indicates that corporate operating earnings for the Standard & Poors 500 have been significantly exaggerated for nearly two decades by about 10 percent or more early in this period and by over 20 percent in recent years. These figures are conservative, the magnitude of the overstatement may be considerably larger.
dollar getting creamed, you have to wonder with the policy makers keeping all their increasing number of balls in the air, wether this is the one that slips between their fingers…..
Inflation doesn’t exactly feel contained here either, what a way to run an economy.
Barry et al,
Any thoughts on how much of an impact the sale of Iranian Oil in Euros instead of USD will have? My sense is this is small compared to USD devaluation by the Federal Reserve, but this is pure SWAG.
How can the dollar not continue to tumble when the Federal Reserve is totally handicapped by a slowing economy? How much of an increase would it take to actually turn around the dollar? I would say it would have to be huge, as much as .50-.75% and possibly even more.
As long as the Federal Reserve keeps the target rate artificially low at 5.25%, it must defend that rate by providing debt at that rate – it is demand that drives the currency increase. When you expand the supply – in this case dollars – the value decreases.
The problem with raising rates is the Federal Reserve must then defend that new target rate by subtracting currency. A contracting money supply is a credit crunch. The Fed is well aware that a credit crunch would drive the U.S. into a deep and prolonged recession.
It looks to me as if the Federal Reserve will attempt to “weather the storm” by continuing to hold interest rates, further inflating the money supply, in the hopes that the economy will turn, giving them a reason to raise rates in time to keeep the entire house of cards from collapsing.
I don’t see they have any other choice.
Thomas Friedman will have a field day with this…..Indian Rupee at multi-year highs v. $USD.
No choice Winston, but didn’t they get themselves in this mess?
Still amazed at their almost Pathological fear of recession big or small, someone somewhere decided that could be honey forever and this is the result.
Absolutely, the central bankers have created their own nightmare. It is interesting to note that over time central bankers have unsuccessfully attempted to manage the economy by changing the target goal. What is being used now is consumer price index as a target to manage inflation with a complete disregard for money creation – this is a reworking of the Irving Fisher model that was used by the central bank in the early 1920’s, which led to a credit bubble, massive liquidity, and an ultimate crash and depression.
The oddity is that although a yardstick to make assumptions about monetary policy, there is no definitive definition of the word inflation.
Frank Shostak has an interesting article here: http://www.mises.org/story/2525 about this same subject. He makes a compelling argument that expanding money supply is inflation, and price changes are a result of not the cause of inflation.
It seems to me that by targeting CPI and ignoring money supply the Fed is ignoring the raging inferno in the house in order to make sure the embers smoldering in the pay-to-go outhouse don’t prevent a disruption in the customers.
Is it possible to have a rising cost of living with dropping asset prices (worst of all possible worlds)? If so, what would the catalysts be, and are those catalysts around today?
Second, where does the USD go from here? Bounce? Crash? What levels to look for and when?
Third, how does that affect “John Q. Public”, in layman’s terms?
And fourth, how does a smart “John Q. Public” start hedging against this risk with a VERY small amount of money?
“Third, how does that affect “John Q. Public”, in layman’s terms?
And fourth, how does a smart “John Q. Public” start hedging against this risk with a VERY small amount of money?”
I would like to know this as well
I’m far from an expert but here’s what seems to make sense to me….
Jonh Q is gonna fell the sting in oil…which bleeds into everything else. Energy is the one common thread in everything we consume.
Rich folks hedge by turning there soon to be worth-less dollars into hard, usable assets. Since those assets are typically expensive that means in order to do that John Q would have to use debt…preferably long term fixed rate debt. OR you could find the safest way to invest in the most stable self sufficient foreign currency/economy you can.
Are you actually going to answer the questions or just continue to complain about my name or whatever else you do to avoid the issue, just like Nogo. Your ascertation of modest gains for the market (since you were not specific until you were called out on it) does’nt hold any water when a chart of the dow and the dollar are measured against each other.
Do you have a rebuttal?? or are you just going to continue to skirt the question and support your weak arguement??
To those asking, you hedge the dollar by shorting it, buying gold, gold miners, UXG, GLD, bullion, or currencies that are going up in value, ie: Pound, Euro, Franc, and currencies of commodity producing countries like Australia, Canada, etc.
With little money UXG, GLD are good choices on pullbacks.
fed total credit way up every single week
banks borrow from fed and lend at fractional reserves of practically 1%. fiat money supply balooning. Fed must keep lending or fear a contraction of credit which is the lubricant to keep this economic engine running. this world economy is running on credit created by central reserve banks around the world. cut credit risk choking the expansion. keep credit flowing and hedonically substitute inflation aggregates and everything is fine…until it isn’t. Buy gold, guns and can goods :)
How is Gold a hedge from inflation when people bid the price of it up because of inflationary fears? Seems like pissing in the wind to me.
Yeah its about that time when all the dollar bears come out of the woodwork. Where were they at a 85 or 90 dollar index. When the bears get confident in shorting the dollar its going to turn on them.
the reality of it is that the fed has laid it all on the table for everyone. Don’t try to read between the lines. It’s like a buy and hold investor watching the intraday movements. Its all noise. Bernanke told everyone that they have a targeted range for inflation. The Fed ended a long tightening cycle when they saw inflation slowing and giving potential to a reversal or disinflation. They paused rates and started massively injecting liquidity into the markets for over 5 months. That damages the dollars strength against other currencies and prices as it is still a global reference for prices. So money runs into everything and lifts equities and commodities. Rising commodity prices results in rising PPI and other inflation indexes. They you go more inflation and brings inflation back in the comfort zone the Fed likes. If they ran too much liquidity int he markets they may have to raise rates to contain it again. Which is their intent. An increase in rates or a tightening of money supply to slow the rise in inflation will be supportive of the dollar. Look back to the 80s and 90s on the dollar chart for what a inflation comfort zone looks like.
BR: Note we first mentioned the dollar in this context in 2005
The Incredible Shrinking Dollar
The return of ANDER L !
British Pound Passes $2 Mark http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117681573120672571.html
Another hedge idea to look at, Rydex has a fund that shoots for double the inverse of the U.S. Dollar Index, RYWBX
this might help in 1933 The dollar went off the gold standerd. also in 197? we went off the silver standerd. what they did was let the dollar run free after that. that whay you have what you have. there is no backing. not by gold not by silver. what you got is a free dollar. if you think something is worth $20 then that what it is. but if somone elc thing the same thing is $30 and you can find it for $20 well then it worth $30. you cant go and get silver or gold aney more for that $20. that my 2 cents into it.
NY Times headline today read:
“Employment Report Shows 166,000 Gain in Jobs”
Upon reading the article I found the real story:
“Payrolls grew in the service sector, the Labor Dept. said. But a separate survey showed that fewer Americans were employed over all last month.”
I read a bunch of mainstream news reports about the supposed “favorable” job reports and it shouldn’t be a surprise that the numbers are all fudged and twisted.
“The labor force shrank by 211,000 jobs, and 465,000 Americans said they were no longer working.”
I love the comments from April about the end being nigh for dollar bears. I got short around 90, stopped out a couple of times, but am short from 86.50. Life could be worse. I could be long, for example!
‘Our enemies never stop thinking of ways to harm our country…and neither do we’.
George W. Bush
This is intentional folks.
Ah deception, how many friends doth thou makest?
The “US Dollar” (Federal Reserve Note) is not a “Dollar”. A “Dollar” is defined in LAW which a Federal Reserve Note IS NOT a “dollar” as defined in law, and never was.
The LEGAL definition of a federal reserve note is “Obligations of the US”. That is a FAR CRY from the legal definition of what EXACTLY a “dollar” is. The Dollar is a measurement of the purity and weight of GOLD, those being expressed in Dollars. The amount of the purity and the weight of the gold is ESTABLISHED BY LAW – and are expressed in DOLLARS – that is – “X” amount of purity + “Y” amount of weight = ONE DOLLAR. A Dollar is a measurement – an inch is a measurement of length – a quart is a measurement of liquid volume – a bushel is a measurement of solid volume – a foot is a measurement of length — So too is the Dollar.
A federal Reserve Note IS NOT a Dollar. The actual de jure Dollar is not a Paper Note – Bill of Credit (explicity outlawed by the US Constitution from circulating as money) – it is a MEASUREMENT of the purity and weight of GOLD.
Therefore, the chart above does not show a Chart of the US Dollar AS DEFINED IN LAW – it is a chart of the FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE – Which is NOT a Dollar and never was.
“Federal Reserve Notes are not dollars” ~ Russel Monk — Counsel U.S. Treasury.
I also might add:
The United States is NOT OFF the Gold Standard. That is the biggest deception (lie) of all.
To make the States which comprise the Union abandon the “Gold” standard would take an amendment to the United States Constitution. Executive orders and all that other crap are INFERIOR to the establishments of the US Constitution regarding the MONEY OF ACCOUNT of the United States of America as DEFINED IN LAW, and I could EASILY prove this in a court of law before an IMPARTIAL judge and jury.
The United States is NOT OFF the Gold standard, if it was, the US MINT would be eliminated from COINING the MONEY OF ACCOUNT AS DEFINED IN LAW.
The United States DID NOT go off the gold standard, the FEDERAL RESERVE DID.
OY. You know what flashed through my brain when someone upthread mentioned Buffet investing in trains?
Seems that things are going exactly as planned! As the dollar plunges and inflation surges, the American people will happily accept the idea of a North American Union, with its promises of prosperity and a new stable currency: THE AMERO.
Fiat money, yet another infringement on our rights by the gov’t. Add it to the ever-growing list of violations:
They violate the 1st Amendment by opening mail, caging demonstrators and banning books like “America Deceived” from Amazon.
They violate the 2nd Amendment by confiscating guns during Katrina.
They violate the 4th Amendment by conducting warrant-less wiretaps.
They violate the 5th and 6th Amendment by suspending habeas corpus.
They violate the 8th Amendment by torturing.
They violate the entire Constitution by starting 2 illegal wars based on lies and on behalf of a foriegn gov’t.
Support Dr. Ron Paul and save this great country.
Last link (unless Google Books caves to the gov’t and drops the title):
America Deceived (book)
Sustainable, Green Economics – http://jahtruth.net/greeneco.htm
Why is everyone apparently missing the obvious? Alan Greenspan was relieved of his fed position to accomplish another role; The murder of the US dollar to make way for the Amero of the North American Union. This is exactly what he is doing and what is happenning.
When the people have been impoverished to the point of asking that they surrender the US dollar to the duct-bucket of history, the Amero will take its place. You could not, in Amerikka, just dump the dollar, which was the worlds reserve currency, without destroying it first. That has almost completely been accomplished. The recession and subsequent joblessness of the american people will do the rest.
The age of Pisces is over. The universal awakening is now. See the world for what it is and understand that even if you think you have the complexion that has the protection, that ain’t so anymore. The world gov’t is looking to consolidate its power and it will be run out of Is it real. (isreal)
We Canadians look south, and with our usual politeness and wisedom…smile
What does it mean? US is in need of another Bretton Woods?
Forget it – the geopolitical climate works against the US.
The US is less prepared for a downfall than the Sowjetunion was! The downfall of the US will cause food shortage and other shortages. In the former Sowjetunion, because of general shortage of goods, people built up their own sustainability.
Think about that.
do all the ways to stop the economic crisis
in your country because if you put your economic down the whole asia who gets supports from you will be down also
please………especially us in the philippines we are in great danger of dying from hunger please……… do what you can do………