Dow Winning Streak

May 8, 2007 3:45pm by

Nice look at the Dow winning streak, via WSJ

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click to see Public WSJ page

Dow_run_2

Rank

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Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch asks:  What are the odds of the Dow being up  24 days of 27?

Over the course of 111 years — 30,000 trading sessions — since the
Dow was created in 1896, Rudi Fahlenbrach, an assistant professor of
finance at Ohio State University’s Fisher College of Business,
caclualtes the odds are between one and two times in an 111-year period
— exactly what has happened.

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. rs commented on May 8

    I think this time is different… we are in a permanent high plateau. LOL.

  2. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on May 8

    05/20/1926 – 06/17/1926 20 Out Of 23

    07/01/1927 – 08/21/1927 24 Out Of 27

    06/11/1929 – 07/09/1929 21 Out Of 24

    This is why bears go broke. Me thinks we may have far to roam.

  3. sylvia commented on May 8

    If by “far to roam” you mean “three years”.

  4. Pool Shark commented on May 8

    Any theories on why all the longest streaks occurred during the period between May and August?

  5. TheLarge commented on May 8

    Notice how long it took before the next major correction:

    8/27: Market rose another 91% to peak in 9/29, then corrected (crashed). Time = 25 months.

    5/44: Market rose another 47% to peak in 7/46, then corrected. Time = 26 months.

    7/55: Market rose another 12% to peak in 8/57, then corrected. Time = 25 months.

    Remind me to get out of the market in June of 2009!

  6. Tom C., Stamford,Ct. commented on May 8

    Amazingly no such streak in 1999-2000. In February/March 2000 I listened as my firm’s market/technical analyst ruminated on the coming of NASDAQ 10,000. We sold that day. When the market pundits begin speaking similarly you know it’s over. Until then, be careful but don’t fight the tape.

  7. ac commented on May 8

    The economy will tell you if you have “far to go” or not. Continues to sink, you don’t. The Big fry will fry the Small fry for supper.

  8. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on May 8

    Any theories on why all the longest streaks occurred during the period between May and August?

    Posted by: Pool Shark | May 8, 2007 4:45:58 PM

    Sell in May and go away doesn’t sound like such a hot idea during a mania. Concerning why, maybe the fact that these periods can be lightly traded at times making it much easier to paint the tape.

  10. Andrew commented on May 8

    Bad news the market goes up good news the market takes off…. I can’t fight irrationality nor can I fight a fed head who wants to drop cash from a helicopter.

  11. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on May 9

    The economy will tell you if you have “far to go” or not. Continues to sink, you don’t. The Big fry will fry the Small fry for supper.

    Posted by: ac | May 8, 2007 5:12:25 PM

    The Market and Economy are two very different animals in a globalized world. The big multi-nationals will do very well which can hold up the market longer than you have money to burn. The trend is your friend until it isn’t.

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