Its Non-Farm Payroll Day!

Yeah, its that god-damned time of the month again.

The consensus for NFP is for 115,000, with a range of 50,000 to 147,000, according to Barron’s/Dow Jones.

A few statistical oddities make today’s number, which has been touted in the media as all important, somewhat more unpredictable than usual:

• Teaching jobs (education, non-private) have been declining over the summer.  That is an aberration which should get fixed this month. In today’s WSJ, Justin Lahart notes:

"One wild card is the way the government counts teacher jobs. The August
report registered a loss of 32,000 public-school teaching jobs, which
came on top of 50,000 lost teaching jobs in July. "While it is possible
that some school districts around the country have downsized this year,
we think it is more likely a number of districts have simply changed
the timing of the start of their school year," economists at Lehman
Brothers noted ahead of the report."

• Weak ADP Report:

"Nonfarm private employment grew 58,000 from August to September of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment ReportTM. The estimated change in employment from July to August was revised down by 11,000 to 27,000.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report was the third consecutive weak reading and confirms the recent deceleration of employment.

In September, employment in the service-providing sector of the economy grew a moderate 97,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 39,000. This marks the tenth consecutive monthly decline in the goods-producing sector. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 22,000."

• Birth/Death adjustment has been modest in past Septembers. Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens notes:

"Loath as I am to bet against the BLS’s ability to manufacture jobs, the birth/death factor, which has single-handedly accounted for 1.1m (or 70%) of the 1.5m jobs ‘created’ over the past year, is lower in Sept. than any other month of the year after January. 

Last year, the Sep birth/death contribution was 13k, versus an average monthly contribution of 93k jobs.  Given the uptick on Continuing Claims, Jobs Hard to Get (in the Consumer Confidence report) and the record low notched in Help-Wanted Ads, the potential for a negative surprise seems high…

I agree with Stephanie that a downside surprise is, well, not much of a surprise (recall our years long success with betting the Under).

• Revisions: This is another wild card that may surprise. We know the BLS has been over-stating small business  job growth, most especially in construction. However, as BLS skeptic Bill King has observed "Last month, the BLS attempted to remove some of these jobs." Perhaps they have gotten religion over the absurdity of the B/D adjustments.

On a related note (and for the record), I am not in the conspiracy camp;  I beleive the statisticians at the Labor Department do the best job they can. They release all of the data they have on NFP, Inflation, etc. — warts, and all. Whatever biases that are inherent in the BLS output comes from the very senior people who are in charge of tweaking the master models.

Regardless,  the revisions might surprise.

~~~

How will the markets react? Well, a strong number reduces the likelihood of a Fed cut . . .. but it also lowers the likelihood of a recession.

A poor number might generate a knee-jerk short term rally, increase the Fed Fund Futures markets odds of further rate cuts, but also increase the odds of a recession. And no matter you might have heard on TV, recessions ain’t good for profits or stock prices.

As we have noted in the past, its only one monthly data point, the overall trend is what matters most . . .

UPDATE OCTOBER 5, 8:43am

September non farm payrolls rose by by 110k, ever so slightly under consensus. There were very large upward revisions, of which ALMOST ALL were in Govt jobs.  This is the Teacher/Education revisions we discussed above.

However, private sector jobs were revised  upwards a grand total of 5,000. ADP seemed to get the Private Sector job number pretty dead on (73k)

The most interesting news in the report was the Average Hourly Earnings — they rose 0.4% (0.1% more than expected) — and were up a substantial 4.1% y/o/y. This may improve the outlook for consumer spending, but also reduces Fed Cut possibilities.   

The US Dollar is rallying on the news, implying the odds of another Fed Cut are lowering. Rate cut odds for a 25 bps cut at the October meeting have fallen to 52% (from 72% as of yesterday). The odds of a total of 50 bps by yr end is down to 16%, from 40% yesterday.

For the year ending March 2007, the Benchmark revisions were down by 297k. As Miller Tabak’s Peter Bookvaar notes, "there were 297k less job growth than initially thought, thus making Govt data tough to believe in month to month.  The Bottom line: ex out the noise from Govt jobs over the past few months and private sector job gains are averaging just 74k over the past 3 months."

 

>

Sources:
Weak Economy Doesn’t Always Spell Job Losses
Justin Lahart
WSJ, October 5, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119154070011049571.html

Analysis of September 2007 Report
ADP, Wednesday, October 3, 2007, 8:15 am EDT
http://adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/FINAL_NER_Report_September2007.pdf

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Peter commented on Oct 5

    Sept Payrolls are expected to bounce back from the Aug weakness with a gain of 100k vs -4.

    Averaging the 2 mo’s together will likely be a better gauge as public school teacher jobs was the swing factor in Aug as it’s been difficult to seasonal adjust b/c of the differing dates that kids go back to school.

    Looking at private sector jobs will likely be the better way to go today. We know there has been very little firing as measured by the low level of initial claims but have seen a reluctance to hire in light of the slowing economy.

    The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.7%, the highest since Aug ’06. Avg hourly earnings are expected to rise .3%. We will also see the annual benchmark revision for the yr ended Mar ’07 and its estimated to be down.

  2. Eclectic commented on Oct 5

    Well, I see you are playing after all… or are you? I didn’t see a number from you.

    Oh, hell… I’ll play. It’s free.

    — down 15,000 —

  3. jake commented on Oct 5

    cant wait for bagdad bob’s(jack bouroudjian) spin on the number…..

  4. Eclectic commented on Oct 5

    The problem is that, outside of some significant external event that might indicate the likelihood of a significant downturn, the models that *predict* employment are still the slaves of past employment.

    Thus, if some trend of reversal is being hinted at here:

    http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/ner/charting.aspx

    …even if ever so faintly, then ultimately some BLS NFP must surprise us all, no differently than a blind man would be surprised riding in a car when topping a hill.

  5. SINGER commented on Oct 5

    upward revs??

  6. SINGER commented on Oct 5

    Reliability of the estimates,Statistics based on the household and establishment surveys are subject to both sampling and nonsampling error. When a sample rather
    than the entire population is surveyed, there is a chance that the sample estimates may differ from the “true” population values they represent.

    The exact difference, or sampling error, varies depending on the particular sample selected, and this variability is measured by the standard error of the estimate. There is about a 90-percent chance, or
    level of confidence, that an estimate based on a sample will differ by no
    more than 1.6 standard errors from the “true” population value because
    of sampling error. BLS analyses are generally conducted at the 90-percent level of confidence.

    For example, the confidence interval for the monthly change in total employment from the household survey is on the order of plus or minus 430,000. Suppose the estimate of total employment increases
    by 100,000 from one month to the next. The 90-percent confidence interval on the monthly change would range from -330,000 to 530,000 (100,000 +/- 430,000).

    These figures do not mean that the sample
    results are off by these magnitudes, but rather that there is about a
    90-percent chance that the “true” over-the-month change lies within this interval. Since this range includes values of less than zero, we could not say with confidence that employment had, in fact, increased.

    If, however, the reported employment rise was half a million, then all of the values within the 90-percent confidence interval would be greater than zero. In this case, it is likely (at least a 90-percent chance)
    that an employment rise had, in fact, occurred. At an unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, the 90-percent confidence interval for the monthly change in unemployment is about +/- 280,000, and for the monthly change in the unemployment rate it is about +/- .19 percentage
    point.

  7. jake commented on Oct 5

    now the government is fudging employment numbers along with inflation numbers…

  8. W.Edwards commented on Oct 5

    September in line as expected, August upwardly revised from -4K to +89K. Did the Fed jump the gun in lowering rates a half point? In the financial market bizarro world that has been in play the last few weeks, this good news may end up being bad for the street.

  9. UrbanDigs commented on Oct 5

    knee jerk reaction is UP for stocks, lets see if it holds now that multiple fed cuts are probably off the table.

    Thing is, jobs growth is still decelerating, a sign of a mature economy, but not nearly as bad as some have expected. Soft landing seems in line and if the environment is ripe for stocks and the economy, that means probably rate hikes in 2008!

  10. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Oct 5

    The devil is always in the details. We will have to parse the numbers to see what BLS has been up to with it’s alchemy.

  11. Josh commented on Oct 5

    The hedgies (& Paulson) got to the August data to get their rate cut. What a joke.

    Gain in government August employment was created from an initial loss.

  12. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Oct 5

    How can the stock market be a discounting mechanism when we have liars and thieves running the numbers?

  13. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Oct 5

    Barry, just read this at immobilienblasen Blog. Enron comes to mind, and I’m wondering if Ken Lay danced?

    While Citi teams up with KKR / FT
    KKR and Citigroup are understood to have agreed to form an off-balance-sheet vehicle with about $5bn of equity and $10bn of debt to buy impaired loans, which could include some from Citi’s investment bank.

    The joint venture brings together the private equity firm responsible for some of the biggest leveraged buyouts in the run-up to the credit crunch and the bank that agreed to finance many of those deals.

    The vehicle could allow Citi to sell some leveraged buyout debt, which it has underwritten but is struggling to syndicate, as well as other troubled loans.

    > “Could”…. LOL! Conflict of interest…?

  14. Ames Tiedeman commented on Oct 5

    These numbers are not that great:

    -14,000 construction jobs (housing)
    -18,000 manufacturing

    110,000 people are happy that they have a new job, but how happy is America if these jobs are low paying and low skill? Do we just become a low paying service economy with a space program? Where is the beef? I am deeply concerned.

    What is driving the economy? We are just spending on consumer items made in China. Not the kind of economy one would hope for.

  15. me commented on Oct 5

    “now the government is fudging employment numbers along with inflation numbers…”

    And your explanation of the BD Model where 3/4 of the jobs are made up out of thin error (sic). I think Josh is on the right track. After what has been done to the justice department (approving torture comes to mind) why not the BLS?

  16. Stuart commented on Oct 5

    Thank god for government jobs. The quality of this report is lousy. These are not economy growing jobs.

    The bulk of the gains in September hiring came in service industries, including an addition of 44,000 in education and health services and 37,000 in the government. In the goods-producing sector, another 18,000 factory jobs were shed and 14,000 construction jobs were lost.

    So we now have the government more and more carrying the economy on its back and borrowing from abroad to cut their paychecks. Perrrffectt, just perfect. Oh, and 100K swings from month to month, the BLS just lost any credibility it had.

  17. me commented on Oct 5

    “110,000 people are happy that they have a new job, but how happy is America if these jobs are low paying and low skill? Do we just become a low paying service economy with a space program? Where is the beef? I am deeply concerned.”

    This goes right to the senior economist or economic write at the wsj editorial page, goofy Moore bragging about 7 million jobs created. Why aren’t they embarrassed? Ronnie created about 20 million and Clinton 24 million jobs in the same period.

    If we needed 150,000 jobs per month to break even in the 80 and 90, why now is 100,000 sufficient? And those are made up with the BD model. They can’t even come up with jobs the old fashioned way.

  18. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Oct 5

    Of course Prince and CITI will have to get in line to be investigated. I know I should be talking about the fictitious jobs numbers, but the fictitious accounting numbers are more fun because it may well lead to criminal charges, and we can’t really charge the BLS with anything but stupidity…they are the government.

    WSJ: “a criminal probe into Bear Stearns’s two collapsed hedge funds.”

  19. lurker commented on Oct 5

    Let us also keep in mind that other than Monica’s, many of those Clinton jobs created Internet millionaires from folks wise enough to bail out of their stock options the moment their lockups expired.

  20. Stuart commented on Oct 5

    I posted his earlier but it’s such a perfect example of the mindset of why these guys get into trouble…

    buy-and-hold investors?????????
    near default rates?????????

    “In a new research report entitled “Leveraging CLO illiquidity premia”, JP Morgan says that the combination of historically wide CLO liability spreads and near-zero default rates makes this an optimal time for buy-and-hold investors to consider investing in CLOs-squared. It says this is a way to efficiently monetise the current illiquidity created in the “spread rout of 2007″.”

  21. Steve Barry commented on Oct 5

    I can’t believe how CNBC spins a weak 110,000 headline number, below WSJ consensus, as a strong number that beat expectations.

  22. Steve Barry commented on Oct 5

    how many jobs are needed to keep up with the workforce? I’ve read 125-150K.

  23. Ross commented on Oct 5

    Steve Barry, when watching CNBC one must always remember to use the laugh trac button. I have an old one from Archie Bunker days. Works very well. The greatest invention in the last 40 years is the mute button!

  24. Woodshedder commented on Oct 5

    You know what is ironic is that Bookvaar is essentially asking to ignore the month to month numbers (mainly due to revisions) in favor of the longer term trend numbers.

    The irony is that is exactly the argument for using the Core vs. the All Items report.

  25. techy2468 commented on Oct 5

    do we really have to pay so much attention to these numbers, what if they are revised by +-1000% next month.

    my concern will be to depend on some othe indicator which will be more reliable in hinting the onset of recession.

    can the below any good?
    * retails sales number (i am assuming they cannot be fudged since they are reported as per the cash register)

    anything else comes to mind?

    i know that the 2001 downturn was a result of excess spending during 97-2000 on technology and stuff, and a sudden cutdown leading to massive job loss in techsector.

    This time we had very slow growth since 18 months….which is good because we are already adjusting to a slowdown rather than take the plunge all at once.

    but its quite possible that things may slow down further because consumer spending may fall and business spending is definitely going to fall because of all the bad news (self fulfilling prophecy)

    my personal experience so far has been that job market is not so bad (far better than it was in 2002-2003), consumer spending has also not declined as expected since people are still able to make enough money to spend.

    i guess the ultimate indicator will be holiday sales……i am expecting a slow down nothing drastic though.

    in other words, i am expecting a very slow moving usa gdp, but inflation will creep on the higher side because of commodities,food & energy.

    but cost of capital will be further reduced by interest rate cuts if required (there is not much pressure on the dollar anymore, no currency in the world wants to appreciate much)

    similar conditions as in japana i guess.

  26. Justin commented on Oct 5

    How long will this psydo-bull market last? When do they realize that their tails are on fire? Given, the average decline in employment, what sectors are losing jobs, and discrepancies in reporting, I’m guessing that as the leaves fall off the trees so will the dow, nas, and s&p, get plummeled. Bears might be greedy now, but what lays ahead has more gooks and gobblins than any Halloween ever had. This economy has a long-toothed monster waiting in wait.

  27. Woodshedder commented on Oct 5

    Also, I don’t think the issue here is that everyone was expecting 150K+ jobs created.

    The issue is the trend. And the trend seems to show a decrease, month to month, in the number of jobs lost in manufacturing and construction. Sure it is only one data point.

    The numbers have been weak over the last three months, and they bear monitoring closely. However, the picture being painted is more of a soft landing than a recession.

  28. Steve Barry commented on Oct 5

    Ross:

    You are right about the laughs…they just had a woman on who said for every WS job lost, 3 more would be lost. Mark Haines, trying to make an outrageous remark, said, “we should thern keep all the fat cats employed”…the woman agreed with this! In other words, we should keep overpaid fat cats employed, even if they are making money selling questionable debt products, so that the economy can keep going.

  29. MikeW commented on Oct 5

    Fascinating how the payroll number tracks
    market conditions. I’m learning. I would
    have thought it worked the other way around.

  30. techy2468 commented on Oct 5

    steve… i wonder how many people are really employed in WS.

    maybe around 300k?? how does that compare to nationwide….i am sure its a peanut.

    but what if WS really falls into BS, CNBC will be almost non-existant….i guess thats what matters most.

  31. Ames Tiedeman commented on Oct 5

    If I have said it once I will say it a thousand times.

    The TRADE DEFICIT matters. We can talk about Adam Smith all day long and we can talk about creative destruction all night long. The bottom line is we are making too much overseas and not enough in America. Too many American companies have exported jobs. Look at the Steele Industry. In 1974, the last year the USA had a trade surplus, we employed nealry 600,000 in steele making. We now employ about 171,000 in this enterprise. Less than Japan. Trade matters. Trade deficits matter. When Greenspan called the Trade Defict primarily a finance issue, I nearly lost it. It is a jobs issue more than anything. We need to create more jobs in America. EDS is exporting 15,000 jobs to India. This is not good. This is job destruction. If every job that went away was replaced with an equal job I would bot be so concerned. The probem is we have way too much job destruction and not enough job creation. We need to move away from the NAFTA and WTO model.

  32. stormrunner commented on Oct 5

    ALL HAIL KING GEORGE!!!

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071005/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_76;_ylt=AogowOd2IDSfZrdXywVMblIE1vAI

    President Bush, whose job performance ratings on handling the economy have sagged in recent months, hailed the figures as “an indicator that this economy is a vibrant and strong economy for our country.”

    He cited the government’s revisions showing job gains in August — initially reported as a net loss of 4,000 payroll jobs — and said that it means “we’ve had 49 consecutive months of job creation, and that’s the longest uninterrupted job growth on record for our country.”

  33. Woodshedder commented on Oct 5

    Ames, do you consider the weak dollar to be an incentive to increase manufacturing jobs in the USA?

  34. Justin commented on Oct 5

    Something just isn’t right with this picture the banks are reporting massive losses yet the dow dreams on!

  35. John Badalian commented on Oct 5

    Barry – How many of the jobs created this September where courtesy of the BLS’ “net birth/death” adjustment?

    [BR: 17k http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm%5D

    Old Dr. Kurt Richebacher, the torchbearer of the Austrian School of Economics (that’s the play you pay School)stated in August 2006 that “Among the many absurdidities in American statistics, this definitely by far the worst… we are supposed to believe that during the past few years (the 2003-2006 timeframe)a limited number of new firms in the United States has created millions of jobs, while a huge army of existing firms is sacking labor.” From 2001 to date, the majority of jobs “created” in this country have been courtesy of the Model.

    Yes, I did take my meds this morning, but I find it rather funny when Dr. Richebacher states: “…the Monthly Situation Report… does not mention the existence of the whole model. The figures are published on a seperate “net birth/death” page, to which there is no reference in the text of the main report”. The Richebacher Letter, August 2006 Page 8.

    The old antifascist, economic contrarian died on August 24th at the age of 88. He’ll be missed!

  36. BDG123 commented on Oct 5

    I believe dollar is rallying because people might be figuring out what is really going on globally as opposed to what Fed Fund futures are saying. Contrary to popular opinion, dollar hasn’t broken any long term support and there is no fundamental reason for that to happen. If the crowd believes the Pound or Euro is a safe haven, I’d like to hear that argument. And, the GBP and EUR exchange rates are completele lunacy based on fundamentals that are deteriorating faster in Europe. In a world of uncertainty, the dollar is going to start getting alot more positive interest from smart money regardless of what the Fed does.

  37. Eric Davis commented on Oct 5

    This is like the best snow job ever…..

    How do you convince everyone and stop people from talking about how bad sub 100,000 jobs are..

    and it’s revised back up, no one notices that we are still sub 100K jobs.

    and everyone thinks that it’s good.

    Because sub 100K numbers for the past 3 months is good for the economy.

    As the stock market has weak volume rallies and high volume sell offs.

    Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!!!!
    I Am OZ!!!
    but I digress.

    in a few months we find out that goldilocks has been held up like a marionette for months.

    The greatest shell game ever told.

    I’m not a big black helicopter guy, it’s just how the numbers played out. But the message through the noise should be “Wholy crap” our economy is moving into recession.

    I like the fact that we arn’t falling off a cliff, and that we won’t get another rate cut.

    Guarantee, it’s the poor who will suffer the most. Just no bonuses for wallstreet.

  38. Justin commented on Oct 5

    Someone mentioned that: “A weak economy doesn’t always…job loss.”

    Check this out and tell me that jobs lead? Basically we are wittnessing a FED dancing act that is about to stubble on stage, because consumption leads employment and consumption is heading downwards…no if, and, bits about it! IMHO

    http://www.aheadofthecurve-thebook.com/02-01.html

  39. Estragon commented on Oct 5

    BDG123,

    I don’t have a strongly held opinion on USD/EUR or USD/GBP. As you’ve noted, there are signs of weakness developing in both Europe and Britain, and the USD has already moved a lot relative to both currencies.

    That said, I see a small but not zero probability that China decides to pre-emptively revalue or even float before protectionist pressure builds in Europe.

  40. MarkTX commented on Oct 5

    Justin,

    Seems the market is acting just like last year,

    but really,

    Think of the movie 12 Monkeys-Bruce Willis

    “It really is about control”.

    SPX is right now ATH

  41. formerPermaBEAR commented on Oct 5

    but the market is rippin higher! give it up permabears and join the party! wohooo!

  42. VJ commented on Oct 5

    me,

    If we needed 150,000 jobs per month to break even in the 80 and 90, why now is 100,000 sufficient?

    The Clinton administration routinely utilized 185,000/Month (with a smaller population), but even if one used 150,000/Month, exactly WHERE is the supposed good news ? This administration has had negative job growth for the seventh year in a row.
    .

  43. MarkTX commented on Oct 5

    Not only join the party,

    dot com = china

    So,

    your mission if you choose to accept it…..

    Any stock with the word CHINA in it——BUY

    here is a starter list

    FXI,GDC,PTR,CHNR

    don’t worry about money, this game is just starting.

    Good Luck

  44. me commented on Oct 5

    vj,

    That was my point, there is no good news.

    “Ames, do you consider the weak dollar to be an incentive to increase manufacturing jobs in the USA?”

    I will not pretend to answer for Ames, but your question is a good one if applied to service jobs.

    IBM has fired US workers and hired over 50,000 Indians. In the WSJ today is a graph showing that in 2002 when Palmisanno began his big push to shed American jobs the rupee was a little over $2.00 per hundred rupees. yesterday it closed at $2.535 per hundred rupees. In addition to wages in Indian IT increasing over 15% a year and the Indian bank no longer going to support a weakening dollar, at what point do the big multinationals get hurt big time and wish they still were creating jobs in the US.

  45. Woodshedder commented on Oct 5

    Eric, et. al.

    No one is arguing that the last 3 months of jobs growth is not weak. And I don’t remember hearing anyone arguing that growth is slowing.

    The argument simply is, recession or soft landing?

    The data points to soft landing.

    Now, if we created 200K jobs, then the bears will growl about inflation. However, we did not see a strong jobs number, only an uptick.

    So, the trend will continue until there is data to support either a. stronger push towards recession b. greater inflationary data.

  46. Cherry commented on Oct 5

    BLS data for Augest is wrong. That was a negative month. Their “revisions” are wastefull. Much like 2000, it won’t be seen to BEA revisions “shake it out”.

    September may be revised higher.

    October will be weak and most likely negative as B/D is at a VERY weak point only observed in January, May and July before.

  47. Ames Tiedeman commented on Oct 5

    ME: To answer your question:

    The weak dollar is indeed an incentive to increase manufacturing in the USA. I would not be surprised to read of VW building a plant in America soon. I also think we will see Toyota and Nissan expand in America. Look at the plant in Alabama that Hyundai has built. BMW is in North Carolina. MB is in Alabama. The Trade Deficit is so large, 5 % of GDP, that I see the dollar falling for years. We need to get the trade deficit back to under 1% of GPD. it was there 15 years ago…

  48. Ames Tiedeman commented on Oct 5

    Look, manufacturing jobs will return to America as the dollar collapses. It is just going to take some time.

    I am disgusted with the decline of our Steel, Auto, and Textile Indistries.

  49. Unsympathetic commented on Oct 5

    Manufacturing will only return to the US if the UAW isn’t a part of it – their inane policies and refusal to adopt both lean and a competitive compensation package has lead directly to killing the golden calf. Hope the union leadership has enough saved to pay for all the plant closings! Accordingly, the decline in the big 3 was inevitable and inescapable.

    The one part of UAW’s failing that’s sad.. the bottom-line profits for all those companies go to the foreign country instead of the US.

  50. Aaron commented on Oct 5

    Interesting how much ground the dollar has given up after its initial boost from this number. Guess it’s just a sign of extreme weakness in the currency.

  51. .morg commented on Oct 5

    “Manufacturing will only return to the US if the UAW isn’t a part of it – their inane policies and refusal to adopt both lean and a competitive compensation package has lead directly to killing the golden calf. Hope the union leadership has enough saved to pay for all the plant closings! Accordingly, the decline in the big 3 was inevitable and inescapable.”

    What total bullshit I worked for Boeing for 15 years as a line mechanic we were involved with it all including sigma six just in time and lean manufacturing. I’m sure if we would have excepted the prevailing chinese wage no company sponsored healthcare and dumped all our toxic waste out the back door everything would have been fine.All the outsourced jobs would still be here.

  52. Brian B. commented on Oct 5

    I wonder how many more times I will have to read about how great the Clinton years were? Listen I am a rebublican however, I am not foolish enough to think that either a Dem or Reb president has that much power over the economy. Clinton had the unbelievable fortune to be president during one of this countries biggest booms (dot.com revolution). Then had even better luck to leave office before the boom took its toll. Sometimes to be a great president, I guess it’s a matter of timing?!?! We will see if the next Clinton has the same good fortune? Someting tells me she won’t.

  53. Ames Tiedeman commented on Oct 5

    I have to tell you GM has a good deal with the UAW. I must also say that I am extrmely optimistic that GM will gain market share vs. BMW, MB, and Toyota.

    1. The new Cadillac CTS is just awesome. Go to your local dealer and check it out. This will give MB and BMW some trouble.

    2. The new Pontiac G8 will hurt BMW 3 series sales. You have to go see this car.

    I have not been this optimistic about a US Auto manufacturer, ever. I see GM share going back to 20% within 10 years.

    Also, the new Acadia by GMC is superb.

    Saturn is no longer a joke, either.

  54. VJ commented on Oct 5

    Brian,

    I wonder how many more times I will have to read about how great the Clinton years were?

    Just the facts. If you can’t handle the truth….

    Clinton had the unbelievable fortune to be president during one of this countries biggest booms (dot.com revolution).

    The economic “boom” began in 1993. By February of 1994, Greenspan stated he needed to raise interest rates, as he claimed the national economy was “overheating“. Although I was telnetting into my alma mater’s computer back in ’93, widespread dial-up did not happen until several years later.

    The so-called “dot.com revolution” was a tiny fraction of the national economy even by 2000. Overall retail sales in 2000 amounted to more than $3.2 Trillion. On-line retail sales in 2000 amounted to something like $50 Million.

    As someone famously once said, You do the math.
    .

  55. wunsacon commented on Oct 5

    VJ, I agree with 100% of every post I’ve read from you to date and always enjoy reading the facts you include. But, let me just say:

    1. The “contribution” of the dot-com era to the “overall economy” wasn’t so much the $50 million in retail sales but the investment up until that point.

    2. To me, the “dot com” reference isn’t just about the Amazons and Yahoos but also the telecom buildouts and the Y2K bug. This all occurred concurrently.

    3. By comparison and though I was a Dem/Clinton-basher at the time, Clinton’s policies were great. But, only because he didn’t do something stupid to get in the way of all the innovation and investment occurring at the time.

  56. Brian B. commented on Oct 5

    Wunsacon,

    Yes, I have always said the same thing. Please tell me just a couple of things Clinton did that were helpful? Remember, he had a rep. congress during 6 of his years. And I will admitingly admit a much better congress than the one we have had this last 6-7 years. I dont want this to become a political thing… it just seems so easy to bash from these “armchair QB’s”. And I was as well a Clinton basher, but since realize the same, at least he was smart enough to stay out of the way. Even now however, I realize that he is very intelligent and articulate. So as I said before the next Pres if a Dem, may not as be as fortunate, then we will see how easy it is to be Pres in this new generation.

  57. Greg0658 commented on Oct 5

    American business is attempting to balance wages with world wages and thus the American standard wage is LOWERING

    The FED is doing the same with Inflation

    these actions will allow 3rd world economies to buy our stuff (eventually)

    you all in the Wall Street game are fighting just like American Unions did and the middle class non-players are getting the blackjack

    it’ll be nice to get back to a balance with banks making the loans and savers getting a decent return for their retirement years

  58. Greg0658 commented on Oct 5

    VJ – the good Clinton years were the a product of starting up the China manufacturing climate (Wal*Mart) amoung other items like dot coms, that Y2K for the programmers and TIFs (tax increment financing)

  59. Greg0658 commented on Oct 5

    I’m raggin on Wal*Mart to much – our great white hope for poverty stricken service laborers

    computer and cell phones of many brands – 2 other big, really big gainers in the Clinton years – manufactured where? – China

    the cynic in me guesses that somehow manufacturing figures for American business rise and the trade deficits rise in lock step

    and CNBC reports a counterfeit market rages on

    perfect – US chip sales with fake housings for the 3rd world – illegal imports for Americas security firms up the yingyang

  60. Greg0658 commented on Oct 5

    now – I’m raggin on China

    Welcome to the free market capitalism world

    give us time here in America to adjust the levels and balance out our heads

    thanks for doing our work as best you can

    and watch out government officials – its a jungle

    ps – anybody with any of my 60’s Matchbox cars left (sold em to buy a ZX81 Timex Sinclair computer) run a test on them for me – any lead paint? Maybe thats where my COPD came from.

  61. Eclectic commented on Oct 5

    It’s the end of the day… night has settled in… appraised all the facts… analyzed all the input from the day… applied logic, reason and objectivity, and resisted the temptation to overreact. What’s the net?:

    … Game tied, we’re into overtime.

    There was no clear direction given today by BLS NFP. Yes, employment strength has surprised many for quite a long time… and may continue to do so, but nothing changed from just before NFP to just after.

    All that can be said about today is that no evidence was presented that this economy is NOT still expanding. The status is still quo.

    But, that economy is like a gunfighter champion, and its players are like his top challengers… Fed by adrenaline and bravado, none can ever sleep.

    That’s what your challenge is, Mr. Gunfighter. You have to keep all the other gunfighters convinced of your speed… Nobody here can harm you… It’s your compatriots that you’ll always have to beat to the draw.

    When they find you in the street, here’s the challenge they’ll make:

    “If you’re not ready to buy, be r-e-a-d-y to die!”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPDWWX4tvVA

    SINGER,

    You’re correct generally in your observation, but we’ve played that game for a while now. The cumulative monthly data are still showing a jobs market that is adding jobs. The cumulative levels cause the data to reach the level of statistical significance.

    What I’d like to see is some good research analysis on just exactly what the early effects of the front-end Baby Boomer retirement are doing to the dynamic unemployment situation… not e-m-p-l-o-y-m-e-n-t but un-employment pressures. In once sense they are mirror images, but in another they’re apples and oranges.

    I can’t help but believe that, were this Baby Boom generation 10 years younger, now, under the same economic conditions as today, unemployment would be moving much higher. I’ve witnessed too many examples of Boomers that are retiring early or cutting back to part-time jobs, or in some other ways clearly reducing the pressure on unemployment. I’m half-way to thinking of doing something like that myself and I’m 56.

    At any rate, BLS NFP is no warning flag as yet. Slow jobs, yes… but still new jobs and no worsening unemployment.

    Who can know?… It’s always possible the recession has been canceled due to lack of interest. I would even help Kudlow sing Goldilocks tonight, but I wouldn’t help him with her credit card bills or mortgage payments.

  62. Barry Ritholtz commented on Oct 5

    A quick reminder how to get unpublished and/or banned:

    • Don’t reveal your real email address to me. This way, if I have a question or warning for you, I cannot reach you.

    • Go all ad hominem on other posters

    • Posting naked self-promotional — and worthless — comments, just for the link back to your new blog

    • Mention specific data, but fail to source or link it

    • Especially do that about your host — misquote me, or state something without backing it up.

    • If you are posting 10-20 comments a day, well, then, its time to think about getting your own blog.

    There are too many positive contributors around here, and if you make it difficult to reach you, well, the easiest thing to do is temporarily ban you.

  63. wunsacon commented on Oct 6

    Brian B.,

    >> Remember, [Clinton] had a rep. congress during 6 of his years.

    Oops…I forgot to mention that!

    >> it just seems so easy to bash from these “armchair QB’s”.

    Well, it’s not easy to do it *well*. The “armchair QB’s” on this board make some good points. (This isn’t Yahoo!, thank heavens.) :-)

  64. VJ commented on Oct 6

    wunsacon, Greg0658,

    I don’t want to get into a long back ‘n forth, but you really have to get your chronologies in alignment. None of that stuff was happening back in ’93.
    .

  65. VJ commented on Oct 6

    Brian,

    Please tell me just a couple of things Clinton did that were helpful?

    Raising income taxes on the top 1.2% of taxpayers as well as Corporate America, and using the proceeds to pay down some of the Reagan/Poppy Bush debt. Expanding the EITC and raising the Federal Minimum Wage, which lifted MILLIONS up out of Poverty and into the Middle-class. It’s a long list.

    Remember, he had a rep. congress during 6 of his years.

    Remember, they didn’t get any legislation of consequence signed until February of 1996, after they had shut the government down TWICE and capitulated. The national economy and stock market were already performing quite well by then.
    .

  66. VJ commented on Oct 6

    Barry,

    Don’t reveal your real email address to me. This way, if I have a question or warning for you, I cannot reach you.

    As a general response, get your own domain with a modicum of security, and I for one would gladly provide a real e-mail contact. I’ve had too many instances in the past of nuts attempting to track me down.

    ~~~

    BR: Emails are not revealed on the site — only I see them.

    However, if something questionable is posted, my only option for someone w/o a live email is to pull it. I would rather reach out to a commentor and ask them to edit it — but with no email, my options are limited.

    That’s before we get to the issue of the anonymous cowards . . .

  67. Greg0658 commented on Oct 6

    I’ll eat some crow – that cynic in me puts 2 and 2 together and figures coalition

    quick checked a few of my 385 inventoried purchases (I dont database country of origin)

    Nokia 5120 cellphone buyMar99 – base USA, battery Japan, booklet Canada
    Hewlett Packard 6370Z buyNov98 – made in USA w/foreign components
    Iomega 100M ZipDrive buyMay97 – assembled in Philippines w/US and foreign components
    Envision LCD Monitor ENLM500 buyMay01 – made in Taiwan
    Promise Ultra100 raid controler buySep00 – Made in China

    I’ll quit there – 155Kbytes of prior input to TBP over 217 days – sorry folks if I’m a rag – Sister Mary Elephant should wack my fingers – I’ll give it a rest – watch over things in the big picture, please.

  68. VJ commented on Oct 7

    Barry,

    Emails are not revealed on the site –

    I’m aware.

    – only I see them.

    If you believe that, you don’t appreciate the mechanics (Unless you’re saying you own http://www.typepad.com). The stories I could tell you.

    Best I can do is an alt address. You really should get your own site.

    :]

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