My favorite is this one, which for some reason makes me think of Doug Kass:
We always enjoy Doug’s reasoned arguments, and pass along the above with love.
Doug has some words in Abelson’s column this week in Barron’s:
Simultaneous bull and bear markets?
“But that they’re taking place at the same time doesn’t mean they’re otherwise equal. As Doug Kass, the redoubtable bear who runs Seabreeze Partners, points out, the bullish part of this hybrid bull-bear market, has been restricted pretty much to a relative handful of high-steppers (a number of which, as it happens, are prominent components of the Dow and the S&P 500 averages). Since Doug views everything through some expensive designer glasses darkly, he points to historic instances as demonstrating that narrow bull markets end badly.
In support of his forebodings, he cites the Nasdaq 100’s spectacular performance so far this year — last we checked, it had shot up a cool 25%, or some 448 points — as a startling illustration of how a few exceptionally strong stocks can give the impression of a big bull move. Of that roughly 25%, or nearly 450 points, gained by the Nasdaq 100, a whopping 230 points, or over half the index’s rise, has come from just three issues: Apple (135 points), Research In Motion (60 points) and Google (35 points).
No accident that each of that triumphant trio is part of the big, amorphous sector dubbed “tech”. For according to that perceptive observer referred to a few paragraphs above, the torrent of dough exiting the financial shares, which for so many years ruled the investment roost but lately have been feeling the effects of the credit chill, has flowed in gobs into techs, which have been largely out of favor for quite a spell.
No accident, either, he says, that Apple, Research In Motion and Google, wear the growth label. For, he believes, the long dominance of value over growth in investor preference is in the process of changing and, if and when the market regains its footing, growth will reassert its preeminence. The emphasis, though, will not be on current momentum favorites like Apple, Research In Motion and Google, but, instead, on that vast legion of growth stocks that have conspicuously lagged in markets ever since the dot-com bust.”
Interesting stuff — thanks Doug!
JUMP RIGHT IN — THE WHIPLASH IS FINE.
Barron’s OCTOBER 29, 2007
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET