Terrific interactive chart from the NYT comparing various regional prices versus the national average:
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click for interactive chart
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courtesy of NYT
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Source:
In Housing, the Strong Turn Weak
VIKAS BAJAJ
NYT, May 28, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/business/28housing.html
Looks like there’s a good portion that still needs to come off the top. I’d agree with that seeing prices for homes in my area in PA.
And aside, it looks as though the market is tipping back to the bearish side. Each time it breaks down points come off just that much quicker.
Banking stocks are breaking down now. They are realizing future profits are greatly in jeopardy and write downs weren’t large enough.
and to second above and as a consequence of collapsing home $$$$,
LEH testing $35. successful breakdown = everyone reaching for Panzner’s armageddon book.
If I had some more spine, I’d load up w/$35 Oct puts. so for now i’ll stick with SKF.
They were talking about credit problems getting better because the charts were going one way. But since when due credit spread charts suddenly only go one way without volatility. That was the first sign something was wrong.
It is very interesting to see cities that have a very low Beta, such as Denver, which seem to be moving with the tide of the market, just at a muted pace. Then, compare that to Los Angeles or Las Vegas, where the changes have been right on with the market, yet extremely overdone on both sides of the curve.
But the most interesting of all are the cities such as Seattle, which seems to lag the market. Seattle lags the market by almost a year if you look at its recent peak and where it began to come off. Portland and Charlotte very similar.
The toughest to look at are cities like Cleveland, which seem to be falling at the same pace as the rest of the country, yet never had the double-digit growth that the rest of the country enjoyed sinced 2000.
Lastly, Boston almost seems to be ahead of the market in terms of when it peaked. It seems like it might actually be worth watching the Boston market for indications of what will come and to trade the Seattle market on the back of it.
A Lehman here, a Lehman there … oh my, here we go again.
It just drives me nuts when I see, high in the story, the news about sales being up slightly from the previous month — while we don’t find out until much later that they’re down 42 percent(!) from the year earlier, which to me is the only really meaningful metric.
Any thoughts on why no Texas cities are included?
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BR: If you click through, you will find Dallas on the graph (Last I looked, Dallas was a city in Texas).
another uneventful day in the market. This chart is great. thanks.
Crack,
I too was wonderin’ at the lack of TX and AZ data. Living in Houston, it looks like prices are finally starting to move down. DFW area, particularly Plano, is starting to take a real pounding.
The only thing I can think of is that TX got left out because there is no overall big move for the state either up or down.
I thought Phoenix is supposed to be looking pretty bad now? Oh, wait a minute.
Democrat Presidential Candidate from IL? Check.
Democrat Presidential Candidate from NY? Check.
Republican Presidential Candidate from AZ. Never mind.
ANYBODY SEE ‘RECOUNT’: Texas was left out becuse of high oil prices…If the subject was ‘crime rates’ then the NYT would gleefully highlight Houston/DFW and leave out Detroit/LA?
These charts are true quantitative porn…lots of elegant little flash elements, coupled with the rampant pessimism, and you get the double-whammy you’d expect from The New York Pravda.
But you know what these charts tell me and what they don’t tell me?
First, they don’t tell me what the key period internal rates of return are. What’s the IRR for, say, Miami from 1995 to 2007? Better than the stock market? Worse? The same.
Second, the thing they DO seem to tell me that in some years, the rate of compounding was hellaciously good. Anybody here buy a house in a nice neighborhood in, say, Miami, in 1993? If so, it appears congratulations are in order, even today.
But hey, I like the idea of fracitional reserve banking and the notion of a stable credit markets, as opposed to the great wave of gold caressers and depression lovers on this board.
I am a mediocre equities trader, but this chart made me feel pretty good; I managed to buy my house in SF during the short break in price appreciation during ’01-’02.
Well, Karl, I’m glad to see *someone* enjoying these stable credit markets and fractional reserve banking. If I were foolish enough to read Pravda instead of the Ministry of Plenty bulletins, I’d have bought oil and foreign stocks instead of holding onto my strong dollar.
You can still make money by buying large urban repos and dividing them up into high-tech tenements for the tele-commute yuppies, now that gasoline is $4. cook and clean for them, nice digital game room, you’ll be deep in warm moolah jelly.
You can still make money by buying large suburban properties and developing them into high-tech Euro-retirement villages for the active-senior crowd, now that gasoline is $4, and being trapped in the city sucks. provide assisted living options, concierge, you’ll be deep in warm moolah jelly.
Single family but not yet retireds are dead enders anyway, from pure revenue extraction model, their in:out curves will cross soon, and who wants to be the bad guy then?