The End of a 20-Year Energy Cycle

Following up on our Polyanna post last week, here’s some more Leonhardt:

While Congress is barking up the wrong tree — blaming speculators for high Oil prices — consider this simpler explanation for $100+ Crude Oil:

"The world is now at the end of a 20-year energy cycle. From the
mid-1980s to the middle of this decade, oil prices fell even as the
world economy grew. A barrel of crude cost $68 in 1983 (adjusted for
inflation) — and just $33 in 2003.

How did this happen? The high prices of the early 1980s gave producers
an incentive to take more oil out of the ground and also gave consumers
reason to use less of it. With supply growing quickly and demand
growing less quickly, prices plummeted.

The low prices of the 1990s reversed those incentives. Americans fell in love with Hummers and pickup trucks, and the Chinese and Indian booms were fueled by cheap energy. Oil supplies, meanwhile, weren’t growing so quickly. To top it off, the decline of the dollar since 2001 has reduced Americans’ purchasing power. Without that fall, a barrel of oil would cost less than $110 today, rather than $141, according to Stephen P. A. Brown at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas."

Oil will stay expensive until two things happen: the fundamentals of the supply and demand equation changes, and the scarcity psychology around crude oil shifts.

Bottom line: Oil prices will eventually fall as the global economy
cools off. But you can forget very cheap oil — under $30 or even $40
dollars a barrel — until we find a cheaper adequate replacement.


>


>

Previously:
The Costanza Energy Policy: 25 Ways to Drive Oil to $150 (May 29, 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/how-to-drive-oi.html

Source:

Dispelling the Myths of Summer
   
DAVID LEONHARDT
NYT, July 2, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/02/business/02leonhardt.html

~~~

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. johnnyvee commented on Jul 8

    So, the solution is use less or find a replacement? What about the argument that there is plenty of oil out there? Apparently, the peak oil camp is going mainstrea. I am off to buy guns and canned peas.

  2. Sinomania! commented on Jul 8

    Both the IEA and the American Petroleum Institute put out reports last year that discuss the current supply dilemma due to declining production in the US, North Sea, Mexico, probably Iran, and the wars in Nigeria and Iraq. The American Petroleum Institute pushes the idea that demand can be met if the Mid East (Saudi Arabia) produces maximum output and new production (Iraq) and Mexico opens up exploration and drilling and upping production everywhere possible. The IEA saw only competition ahead (EU reliant on Russia, US and China competing) and talks of conservation and efficiency. A balance between the two approaches could lead to stabilized price under today’s level if there was sufficient poltical agreement and initiative. Competing with China for oil looks to be the worst possible outcome.

  3. Chief Tomahawk commented on Jul 8

    BR, what’s TheBigPicture’s take on T. Boone Pickens’ new ad running on CNBC?

  4. Douglas Watts commented on Jul 8

    Bottom line: Oil prices will eventually fall as the global economy cools off. But you can forget very cheap oil — under $30 or even $40 dollars a barrel — until we find a cheaper adequate replacement.

    Such a thing does not exist. Maine is now learning this the hard way, with virtually all of its housing stock heated for out 5-6 month winter on No. 6 heating oil.

    The retrofit that Barry describes needed to have been in the R&D stage when Jimmy Carter created the Department of Energy for this specific purpose.

    Which didn’t happen.

    Landlords in Maine are now talking seriously about evicting low-incom tenants because the cost of heating the buildings + rent received will be lower than the cost of draining the pipes, shuttering the buildings and writing off the property taxes.

  5. ML commented on Jul 8

    Kind of off key, but does anyone have any opinions about Tesla Motors, granted their first vehicle is pricey, I believe 100K, but I don’t see why they wont go cheaper in the future.

    http://www.teslamotors.com/

  6. mysterious eggs commented on Jul 8

    When you are pumping out oil and selling it for $10 a barrel, you don’t invest in future production. With a lead time of 10 years, we’re just observing the lack of investment from the 90s. Yes, there is a squeeze on light, sweet crude, but not of the heavier sour mix. But refining that stuff in large quantities is detrimental to the world’s health. History and Analysis – Crude Oil Prices is a good primer on the many factors leading to price changes. The single largest factor over time seems to be geopolitical conflicts, not supply issues. This might change, but to say we can predict this change is a bit arrogant. Producing more in the short term at the detriment of the long term is bad policy. At least high prices create diminishing returns on oil consumption at a more reasonable level.

    One question I wish we knew the answer to: Is the burgeoning Chinese middle class powerful/wealthy enough to fund the Chinese expansion internally while the demand for the latest cheaper priced trinkets in the US dwindles or is their wealth generation still tied to income from the US consumer? Boiled down – If China contracts with the US, then oil will nose dive with it. In the long run oil will be scarce, in the short term it’s anyone’s guess.

  7. mysterious eggs commented on Jul 8

    Getting a little theoretical here. If governments (domestic AND foreign) levied taxes on goods in proportion to the cost of waste removal, waste storage and related pollution from manufacturing and eventual decomposition (or lack there of, in the case of plastic goods) would it actually be any cheaper to produce our consumer goods overseas? Wouldn’t that represent the true price of the good including negative externalities that we otherwise leave for future generations?

  8. Timba commented on Jul 8

    I am curious what the impact of substantially higher energy costs flowing through to the transport sector will be on global trade patterns. How much of the price of various imports is shipment costs? Does Mexico reenter the offshoring picture in a substantial way if shipping costs from China triple? Anyone know of anything written on this?

  9. wally commented on Jul 8

    How is that a “cycle”?

  10. DL commented on Jul 8

    The Democrats’ core constituency is opposed to drilling. However, there are Democrat-leaning “swing voters” who favor drilling, since it would result in lower prices. It is these “swing voters” that the Dems are worried about in the November election; hence all of the efforts by them to blame George Bush, the oil companies, the futures traders, and to otherwise throw up various smokescreens. The Dems are trying their best to convince these “swing voters” that more drilling won’t help.

  11. AGG commented on Jul 8

    Kramer Junction, California has a 385 megawatt solar plant. You can find it quicj on Google earth. It’s clean, it works, and everything anyone tells you about “alternate’ technology not being cost effective is only true if you are an oil company CEO. Don’t be stupid, people. This technology that runs that plant near LA was invented in the 1920’s for God’s sake! When is all this bullshit about oil going to stop? When the top bozos have squeezed the last dime out of that particular scam and have poisoned the ground so much that they can scam us on water costs like they did gasolene.

  12. VJ commented on Jul 8

    Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross, of W.L. Ross & Co., on the Wall Street Journal Report:

    There’s clearly not a physical shortage. I think what’s changed is that oil has become a psychological commodity, sorta like gold has been for quite a while. You now have pension funds trading it as an asset class. You have hedge funds speculating in it. I think that’s the real story, not anything else.

    So, let’s see, that’s the Saudi Minister of Oil, the Libyan national oil company, and now billionaire Wilbur Ross.
    .

  13. ottnott commented on Jul 8

    The relevant policy question is not whether or not more drilling helps lower oil prices, but, rather, whether or not more drilling now is in the best interests of the country.

    Any genuine debate would address that question, not the meaningless question about whether or not more drilling helps lower prices.

  14. VJ commented on Jul 8

    DL,

    The Democrats’ core constituency is opposed to drilling.

    Actually, they advocate drilling in the 68 million acres of federal land that Big Oil already have leases on, where geologists have determined that 79% of America’s crude oil reserves are likely located.

    More than 41 million acres of the 68 million total are offshore, where Big Oil is only drilling on 10.2 million acres. There is an estimated 54 BILLION barrels of oil available that they already have leases on, but are not drilling.

    The Dems are trying their best to convince these ‘swing voters’ that more drilling won’t help

    Why would “more drilling” ultimately “help” ?

    We use something like 26% of the planet’s production of crude oil.

    We have something like 03% of the planet’s reserves of crude oil.

    Need I add a ‘DUH’ ?
    .

  15. Roman commented on Jul 8

    Oil will crash with the economy. We might not see $30 to $40 oil, but we could easily see $60 to $70 oil in a year or two.

  16. MitchN commented on Jul 8

    The relevant policy question is not whether or not more drilling helps lower oil prices, but, rather, whether or not more drilling now is in the best interests of the country.

    Bingo. We’ve got to stop kicking this (oil) can down the road. Oil is a finite resource, increasingly difficult and expensive to find, pump, and refine. What would a gallon of gas in this country cost if we figured into it the expense of maintaining the whole Central Command infrastructure, the Fifth Fleet, oil wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc. — not to mention the environmental costs of our addiction to oil. Wake up, people. It’s time to get the monkey off our collective back. It won’t be easy, but breaking a destructive habit never is.

  17. Carmen commented on Jul 8

    Oil will crash. How low it will go? Nobody knows.

  18. burtstreet commented on Jul 8

    Before we start blaming consumers for buying SUV’s and trucks, let’s remember that most of us buy what Detroit and Japan offer us. The trend toward gas guzzlers began with the auto companies and was heavily promoted by them for years. Why do consumers continue to buy name brand aspirin and not generics. Same reason. Go back and read Vance Packard’s “The Hidden Persuaders” from the 1950’s. The consumer is manipulated; he/she does not originate, except at the margins.

  19. Alfred commented on Jul 8

    Barry joins his own Pollyanna crowed by pretending to know where the real (supply and demand driven) price of this particular asset class is headed. He does not offer empirical evidence like this one:

    Between the years 1991 and 2000 world oil consumption grew by 1.4 percent annually. From 2001 to 2007 consumption grew by 1.6 percent annually. A barrel of oil has averaged $10 during the 90s.
    Global oil stocks have remained stable at around 100 days forward demand in the last 20 years and remains so to this day.
    Demand in China, although still high, has slowed down somewhat in 2001-07 compared to the 90s (6.7% vs 7.6%).

    The supply and demand story is just not holding up. What is really driving the price of all commodities are negative real interest rates and the associated debasement of the dollar. In any case it is the doves at the Federal Reserve that are responsible for this drive in prices and they are doing so in support of ailing trading desk on Wall Street. Their business model is broken and the only trade that is working is the commodity trade.

    Therefore oil will stay in the triple digits independent of supply and demand until authorities will be forced to support the nations currency.

  20. Roman commented on Jul 8

    “The Prince of Saudi Arabia sets the price of oil. Period.

    It is called a monopoly faked as a free-market.”

    Umm, if thats true how was the price of barrel $10 dollars in the 90s?

  21. Roman commented on Jul 8

    “US People should demand we nationalize our oil reserves, do you know how many school could be build? the USA could have free school and health care for all it’s citizens as does Norway.

    Instead Americans are so retarded they would rather be poor and stupid giving away thier own profits to a few super rich.”

    Posted by: Alex | Jul 8, 2008 6:11:56 PM

    What oil reserves? The ones you liberals don’t want us to drill for? We have no oil reserves.

  22. Bodz commented on Jul 8

    Ramble On — Led Zeppelin

  23. Drilling commented on Jul 8

    According to Barrons, Bush worked out a deal with his brother JEB (who happened to be governor of Florida at the time) not to drill off the coast. And oh, by the way, Florida and the Supremes elected W as president.

    Now all of a sudden, bush has seen the light, he has changed his ways and wants to drill everywhere. What an incompetent fool.

  24. Mind commented on Jul 8

    Seems the oil question really pushes some buttons!

    Frank – we’re not used to having such a frank view of CheneyBush uttered unflinchingly.

  25. CaptiousNut commented on Jul 8

    Here go the whiners again, pontificating as if oil has ZERO positive *externalities*.

    Oil moves in multi-decade cycles of over-supply and under supply? Gee, that sounds like the thesis of Jim Rogers’ book. Only ignoramuses haven’t already read that.

    I want to thank Frank for the quote of the day:

    Too bad you Americans are so retard [sic]

    As for you America-hatin’ foreigners:

    Ever wonder why us Yanks don’t spam your blogs with complaints?

    Answer: Because y’all are mice!

  26. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jul 8

    Be careful how you throw words around.

    If you mean liberal say liberal, if you mean Democrat, say Democrat. Same goes for conservative and Republican.

    I’m a liberal Republican (in the true sense of the word – not like that crap the GOP is peddlin’). Don’t tag me as a conservative (whatever that is), or tar me with Democrat.

    As for oil, why is it so expensive?

    Because if you drive a car, they have you by the nuts.

    That’s why.

    That’s also why we need to do the right thing and render their commodity worthless by developing renewable alternatives. Fuck Big Oil.

    And stop with the drilling in America crap. Y’all do understand that there will be Americans in the future, and that those people will likely be your kin, don’t you? You understand that they will get cold and hungry, just like you – right? Or is it all about you, right now? (Ayn Rand would be so proud!)

    Oil is to energy supply as the USPS is to the internets tubes: yesterday’s technology and nothing but toxic trouble. The less we have to do with it, the better (environmentally, economically, and politically).

    And while I’m on a rant, let me say one more thing: Everybody should stop having so many goddamned children (and don’t give me that, “having children is a gift from god” bullshit, ’cause I ain’t buyin’ it. If god was going to feed all of the hungry people in the world, he’d already be doing it). We need to start facing up to population being the source of all of our woes. Wear a rubber, take a pill, or abstain.

    So, there.

    Bitchez.

  27. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jul 8

    Be careful how you throw words around.

    If you mean liberal say liberal, if you mean Democrat, say Democrat. Same goes for conservative and Republican.

    I’m a liberal Republican (in the true sense of the word – not like that crap the GOP is peddlin’). Don’t tag me as a conservative (whatever that is), or tar me with Democrat.

    As for oil, why is it so expensive?

    Because if you drive a car, they have you by the nuts.

    That’s why.

    That’s also why we need to do the right thing and render their commodity worthless by developing renewable alternatives. Fuck Big Oil.

    And stop with the drilling in America crap. Y’all do understand that there will be Americans in the future, and that those people will likely be your kin, don’t you? You understand that they will get cold and hungry, just like you – right? Or is it all about you, right now? (Ayn Rand would be so proud!)

    Oil is to energy supply as the USPS is to the internets tubes: yesterday’s technology and nothing but toxic trouble. The less we have to do with it, the better (environmentally, economically, and politically).

    And while I’m on a rant, let me say one more thing: Everybody should stop having so many goddamned children (and don’t give me that, “having children is a gift from god” bullshit, ’cause I ain’t buyin’ it. If god was going to feed all of the hungry people in the world, he’d already be doing it). We need to start facing up to population being the source of all of our woes. Wear a rubber, take a pill, or abstain.

    So, there.

    Bitchez.

  28. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jul 8

    Be careful how you throw words around.

    If you mean liberal say liberal, if you mean Democrat, say Democrat. Same goes for conservative and Republican.

    I’m a liberal Republican (in the true sense of the word – not like that crap the GOP is peddlin’). Don’t tag me as a conservative (whatever that is), or tar me with Democrat.

    As for oil, why is it so expensive?

    Because if you drive a car, they have you by the nuts.

    That’s why.

    That’s also why we need to do the right thing and render their commodity worthless by developing renewable alternatives. Fuck Big Oil.

    And stop with the drilling in America crap. Y’all do understand that there will be Americans in the future, and that those people will likely be your kin, don’t you? You understand that they will get cold and hungry, just like you – right? Or is it all about you, right now? (Ayn Rand would be so proud!)

    Oil is to energy supply as the USPS is to the internets tubes: yesterday’s technology and nothing but toxic trouble. The less we have to do with it, the better (environmentally, economically, and politically).

    And while I’m on a rant, let me say one more thing: Everybody should stop having so many goddamned children (and don’t give me that, “having children is a gift from god” bullshit, ’cause I ain’t buyin’ it. If god was going to feed all of the hungry people in the world, he’d already be doing it). We need to start facing up to population being the source of all of our woes. Wear a rubber, take a pill, or abstain.

    So, there.

    Bitchez.

  29. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jul 8

    Be careful how you throw words around.

    If you mean liberal say liberal, if you mean Democrat, say Democrat. Same goes for conservative and Republican.

    I’m a liberal Republican (in the true sense of the word – not like that crap the GOP is peddlin’). Don’t tag me as a conservative (whatever that is), or tar me with Democrat.

    As for oil, why is it so expensive?

    Because if you drive a car, they have you by the nuts.

    That’s why.

    That’s also why we need to do the right thing and render their commodity worthless by developing renewable alternatives. Fuck Big Oil.

    And stop with the drilling in America crap. Y’all do understand that there will be Americans in the future, and that those people will likely be your kin, don’t you? You understand that they will get cold and hungry, just like you – right? Or is it all about you, right now? (Ayn Rand would be so proud!)

    Oil is to energy supply as the USPS is to the internets tubes: yesterday’s technology and nothing but toxic trouble. The less we have to do with it, the better (environmentally, economically, and politically).

    And while I’m on a rant, let me say one more thing: Everybody should stop having so many goddamned children (and don’t give me that, “having children is a gift from god” bullshit, ’cause I ain’t buyin’ it. If god was going to feed all of the hungry people in the world, he’d already be doing it). We need to start facing up to population being the source of all of our woes. Wear a rubber, take a pill, or abstain.

    So, there.

    Bitchez.

  30. Douglas Watts commented on Jul 8

    We need to start facing up to population being the source of all of our woes.

    I don’t think the evidence supports that statement. U.S. citizens consume a huge amount of energy/oil in proportion to their percentage of world population. The relationship between energy usage and national population is nowhere near linear. Americans waste an enormous amount of energy, ie. supermarkets where you need to wear a sweater, SUVs, 4-5 car families, 100 mile daily commutes, etc. etc.

    This was all exhaustively pointed out and researched during the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks until RWR said it was a bunch of hokum and changed the subject to those evil Russkies.

  31. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jul 8

    I’m talkin’ global. I don’t know about you, but when I went to elementary school (in the ’60s), they taught us that the oceans had an inexhaustible supply of food for a growing world population.

    Turns out, that isn’t quite true.

    Food, energy, shelter, and clothing. World population: 6,602,224,175. Projected population 2050: 9,309,051,539

    Think we can handle it?

  32. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jul 8

    I’m talkin’ global. I don’t know about you, but when I went to elementary school (in the ’60s), they taught us that the oceans had an inexhaustible supply of food for a growing world population.

    Turns out, that isn’t quite true.

    Food, energy, shelter, and clothing. World population: 6,602,224,175. Projected population 2050: 9,309,051,539

    Think we can handle it?

  33. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jul 8

    I’m talkin’ global. I don’t know about you, but when I went to elementary school (in the ’60s), they taught us that the oceans had an inexhaustible supply of food for a growing world population.

    Turns out, that isn’t quite true.

    Food, energy, shelter, and clothing. World population: 6,602,224,175. Projected population 2050: 9,309,051,539

    Think we can handle it?

  34. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jul 8

    I’m talkin’ global. I don’t know about you, but when I went to elementary school (in the ’60s), they taught us that the oceans had an inexhaustible supply of food for a growing world population.

    Turns out, that isn’t quite true.

    Food, energy, shelter, and clothing. World population: 6,602,224,175. Projected population 2050: 9,309,051,539

    Think we can handle it?

  35. VJ commented on Jul 8

    Elementary school also claimed hiding under your desk would protect you from incoming ICBMs.
    .

  36. VJ commented on Jul 8

    Alex,

    Why are ALL refineries running at 100% capacity with oil supply to spare?

    There may not be a shortage of crude, but the production capacity of gasoline refineries has been continuously reduced since 2001, with the remaining refineries being cranked down from 89% capacity to 86% capacity just this past Spring.
    .

  37. Andy Tabbo commented on Jul 8

    Ok. Back from a quasi-staycation.

    …And, my favorite topic(s) are posted: oil and cycles. The post suggests a 20 yr cycle on oil. There is NO such thing. The last 40 years do not a cycle make!

    What we are actually witnessing is the first several years of a 54 yr Kondratieff Wave (K Wave, Long Cycle, whatevs). There are basically three steps to the Kondratieff Wave Cycle: The first step comes off of the end of the last K-Cycle (1998-2001) that saw extreme deflation. This first wave sees a lot of inflation for the first time in a long time and shocks the sytem. This first wave causes economic DEPRESSIONS and a bout of Deflation. We’re beginning this second wave now. It could last a few years….. Then, we’ll get some major inflation and “growth”, which will beget more inflation and more “growth,” until we reach a hyper-inflationary climax in the 2030’s (similar to 1980-82 inflation blowoff)…..think: all of the Baby Boomers selling off the last of their Peter Lynch-inspired mutual funds and buying up all of the “things they ‘need'” before they die.

    Don’t fret though…the 2030’s – 2050’s will be a great time to be in stocks….similar to 1982-2000.

    Good Luck with all that.

    Technical View on SP500 shorter term: Expect Whipsaw Choppiness next few weeks before a last little pukefest down to 1200 ish….before we get a serious Bear Market Correction (BIG BOUNCE)….which will be the last great selling opportunity YOU WILL SEE THIS DECADE (Not Kidding.)

    – AT

  38. rickrude commented on Jul 8

    guys, the US is a net importer of oil,
    and will always be, no matter what they find on their own soil.
    The US can now join the ranks of china,
    japan, germany, etc waiting in line to pay big $$ for oil.

  39. wunsacon commented on Jul 9

    >> There is NO Shortage, not even a single barrel. Pure manipulation.

    Frank, I wear my tinfoil hat proudly on other situations. But, not this one.

    >> Guess price of oil dropped today (and will continue to drop this week) because supply and demand, speculation does not impact prices, so some retard American must have hidden lots of oil in thier fat butt and released it this week?

    For the decrease this week, my guess is it’s because (a) investors noticed that statistics showing consumers are driving less, rather than continue paying for price hikes and (b) prices of a good — a good for which we only have a 70-day stockpile — will vary daily (up *and* down) to a significant degree.

    Is that so hard to accept that you must instead presume “manipulation”?

  40. wunsacon commented on Jul 9

    >> and still not a single gas station is out of gas!!! No gas line-ups!!!!

    Since there are no price controls, prices have risen and, in turn, consumers have cut back.

    This is literally “econ 101” in action. But, to you, it’s a shocker that causes you to “see” manipulation and “proves” to you that anyone who disagrees is an idiot. Uh, ok.

    >> refineries at 100% capacity

    The refiners couldn’t pass along the price hikes quickly enough and so cut production. Thus, refinery runs are down. It’s real simple, isn’t it?

    Since American consumers are cutting back, crude will probably fall unless global consumers pick up all the slack. I doubt they will pick it up enough in the short term.

  41. wunsacon commented on Jul 9

    Well, Frank, this is what makes a market: different opinions. I think your explanations are totally off the mark. But, hey, have fun.

  42. wunsacon commented on Jul 9

    Frank, one last thing:

    >> New York Times, July 9th 2000

    Quoting a fictitious article does not provide support.

  43. Francois commented on Jul 9

    “guys, the US is a net importer of oil,
    and will always be, no matter what they find on their own soil”

    Always?

    Like we’re too stupid to use the best resource we have (creativity) to find alternatives that works??

    Riiiight!

  44. Francois commented on Jul 9

    “However, there are Democrat-leaning “swing voters” who favor drilling, since it would result in lower prices.”

    These bozos need to learn how to read. As per the American Petroleum Institute, no effect on price can be expected from drilling offshore before…2027!

  45. Douglas Watts commented on Jul 9

    they taught us that the oceans had an inexhaustible supply of food for a growing world population.

    Anyone who says that a food supply is inexhaustible has been huffing $4 a gallon gasoline and not getting the best side of the bargain.

    The oceans are beautiful but quite infertile.

    Science adjusts to new data. Ideologies do not.

  46. pete commented on Jul 9

    “Oil will stay expensive until two things happen: the fundamentals of the supply and demand equation changes, and the scarcity psychology around crude oil shifts.”

    This must be Part2 of the new series ‘Things that are utterly irrelevant in THE BIG PICTURE concerning the oil story – but get propagated anyhow’ last week’s hit: Trichet sinks the dollar and the oil price along with it – at least we still had a connection between the USD and oil back then.

    This page, that I’ve spent so much time with and enjoyed alot over the years, is really turning into the very, very tiny picture – actually the distorted picture describes it perfectly! It seems that no matter how many hard and irrefutable facts are posted by various people here – they just get ignored…it isn’t Wall Street, it isn’t GS, it isn’t the CFTC, its got nothing to do with the London ICE, ATL ICE, Nymex or the SEC, the current administration’s policies or the Big 5 – nooooooo way…it is simply the scarcity psychology around crude oil. i guess all of us who go through the trouble of finding REAL information that is sourced, documented, true and unbiased are just the maniacs out here while people focusing on peripheral and outright misleading parts of the story are telling it ‘how it is’! what’s happening next week? BP calling out to support the fight against man-made global warming?

  47. r commented on Jul 9

    “The Prince of Saudi Arabia sets the price of oil. Period.
    It is called a monopoly faked as a free-market.”

    Alex, if that’s true how about starting up
    CARPEC (against OPEC) Countries Against
    Ripoffs and sell the Saudis cars for
    a million dollars plus and donate the profit so people won’t freeze to
    death this winter? ;>)

  48. ben commented on Jul 9

    Frank,

    I have never seen so many foolish comments by one person on this site. It’s sad.

    Also, learn to spell.

    ~~~

    BR: Don’t bother, he is a Troll.

    I just spent 30 seconds deleting his last 25 comments under the names Frank or Alex, IP address: 76.87.251.34.

  49. Moe Gamble commented on Jul 9

    We’ve got a 7% decline rate in existing oil production, and the decline rate is getting worse.

    That’s quite a lot of demand to kill if you’re counting on lower demand to bring down prices.

  50. Amateur commented on Jul 12

    “We need to start facing up to population being the source of all of our woes.”

    Simple truths in a few words.
    If all those Chinese and Indians and Brazilian and etc. want to converge closer to US consumption standards, the world will continue evolving to an ever uglier ad congested place.

    Oil is becoming scarce, as are clean air, woods, beaches, farmland, and silence.

    Any serious survival policy must include a strong strategy to contain world population. Otherwise, expensive oil will not be the biggest problem…

  51. speculator commented on Aug 1

    I’m the reason for the high oil prices. I’m an unethical speculator who has taken positions for the sole purpose of raising prices. Now if only I could figure out a way to make money off it.

Read this next.

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