We all know that Intrade Political Futures got the Joe Biden pick right last week — how well did it do with the GOP pick?
As it turns out, not so good. THEY COMPLETELY MISSED THE VEEP PICK. Not just off by a little, mind you, but off a ginormous amount.
As we have previously suggested, the political futures markets are essentially poll aggregators. There is very little wisdom amongst the crowd, other than looking at Rasmussen, Gallup, Roper, WSJ/NBC, NYT/CBS, etc. and taking a very rough average.
Just look at how the Palin VP futures Traded only yesterday: You could have bought her VP futures for 4 cents on the dollar! Some wisdom!
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10 Day Chart
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Lifetime Chart
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Note that her lifetime futures chart is only 3 months old. Forget 18 months ago — as of 4 months ago, SHE WASN’T EVEN ON THE FUTURES TRADER’S RADAR. Over the life of the contract, she was never more 20%.
One week ago, she wasn’t even in the top 3:
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Dem VP Front Runners (8/22/08):
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Note that this is not merely a case of the longshot coming in — Palin was not polling well, so the aggregators did not pay her much attention!
Previously:
Why Prediction Markets Fail (January 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/prediction-mark.html
Presidential Futures Markets: Spurious Predictive Powers (October 2004)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/10/presidential_fu.html
Political Futures Markets? Bah, humbug (October 2004)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/10/politcla_future.html
That’s a, truly, inspired pick. She’s a good example, from the little I know, of what’s right in this ‘Country’.
Personally, I didn’t think the GOP had it in them.
McCain is really rolling the dice here, this smacks of desperation to me. Palin has significant gaffe potential. She will appeal to the Republican right wing but they are already on board anyway.
I really cannot see many disaffected Hillary followers voting for this Pro-Lifer, and nor do I think she will resonate with the younger generation that has flocked to Obama’s campaign. There is always the chance of some unsavory business connections to trip her up, as well.
I thought last night’s speech was magnificent. Echoes of JFK (“ask not what your country can do for you”) in some of his calls for increased personal and fiscal responsibility. Obama is the Republicans worst nightmare.
Disclosure: McCain’s Wife was LONG Palin Futures… (Kidding!)
So they give up the “He’s not experienced” issue and let the Democrats pound the “How can Hillary do foreign policy with Muslims” meme to gain someone who thinks there’s ten times more oil in Alaska than the Geological survey believes and is an evangelical?
Bad trade.
1. Obama is still inexperienced. Palin as VP doesn’t change this. The VP nominee is supposed to balance the ticket, not BE the ticket, which a lot of commentators have lost sight of.
2. No one will care about Palin’s estimate of oil in place in Alaska. However supporting drilling in ANWAR does at least indicate that she has common sense.
3. Kudos to McCain for keeping this under wraps and thereby wrong-footing Intrade, which obviously expected another white male to drag this ticket down just like Dole Kemp ’96.
My boss, who is 45-year-old evangelical, was, much to her consternation, thinking about voting for Obama, probably because the pastor of her mega-church has been saying not unflattering things about him.
This, however, will easily switch her decisively to McCain. In Palin, she sees herself — a gloriously devout Christian with expensive taste in clothes and cosmetics.
Venn,
she’s right about the Oil, keep an eye peeled for double-digit Crude prices, coming to a Pit near you, pre 11/04.
lb,
if you think that Gens X&Y are in lock-step behind BHO, think again..
Actually, early this morning, intrade showed a 73/76 market on Palin. It later dropped to 30/35 after news reports that she was still in Alaska.
But is she hot? I mean, my wife is forty-five and still pretty hot. I hope this chick is too.
Something that people repeatedly fail to understand is that 60% probabilities (e.g. Romney) don’t pay off 100% of the time. In fact, if Biden and Romney were both at 60%, then the probability that both would be tapped was only 36%. And long shots (Palin) do sometimes come in – and make no mistake, this was a pick straight out of left field.
This is a bad, bad pick for McCain in my opinion. I’m in disbelief right now. Palin, who will only be one heartbeat away from the Presidency, completely undercuts McCain’s “experience” line of attack on Obama. And Hillary supporters will not go for an anti-choice candidate, even if she is a women. Like the gas tax holiday, they will view the choice of Palin as a condescending (and weak) attempt at pandering. McCain just lost the election, in my opinion.
McCain’s new campaign slogan:
“I’m from Alaska, drill me.”
What were Dan Quayle futures trading at?
Re: leftback
“McCain is really rolling the dice here, this smacks of desperation to me.”
As a (criminal) defense attorney once told me: “When you are in defense, you are losing your case.”
This election was McSame’s to lose….and with Palin on board, he now gets a majority of undecided/angry Hillary supporters that the Dems were courting. And there is not a pro-life/family value/soccer mom/Nascar nation woman voter that will not vote for her.
Wow…the year of the woman, and it is not Hillary. I’d be guessing that the Clinton’s just realized how lucky they are NOT to running against this package.
The Dems are playing defense, and the Repubs went for the offense. McLame’s choice just gutshot Obama’s (purposed) bounce.
Checkmate!
As always, your mileage may vary….
“Wow…the year of the woman, and it is not Hillary. I’d be guessing that the Clinton’s just realized how lucky they are NOT to running against this package.”
If Hillary had won the democratic nomination, McCain would have chosen Alan Keyes as his running mate.
FYI,
according to the actuaries, a 72-year old has an average life expectancy of 12 years.
http://osa.leg.wa.gov/Actuarial_Services/Actuarial_Information/Life_Expect_tables.htm
FYI,
according to the actuaries, a 72-year old has an average life expectancy of 12 years.
http://osa.leg.wa.gov/Actuarial_Services/Actuarial_Information/Life_Expect_tables.htm
FYI,
according to the actuaries, a 72-year old has an average life expectancy of 12 years.
http://osa.leg.wa.gov/Actuarial_Services/Actuarial_Information/Life_Expect_tables.htm
I, for one, am very much hoping McCain will win.
I am looking forward to eight more years of the near-universal prosperity and fiscal responsibility that Bush and Cheney have provided us.
Furthermore, the world will respect us more as a nation knowing that we are sticking with wise statesmanship rather than getting seduced by shallow celebrity.
b-r-i-l-l-i-a-n-t
How could prediction markets possibly know who was being picked by McCain? Only someone working in McCain’s inner circle could have made an informed trade. It’s equivalent to guessing what I will eat for dinner.
Me-thinks it’s O in a landslide. Polls are underestimating motivated voter turnout this year, which is going to much bigger than year’s past. Big voter turnout = landslide victory for O. That’s the real story the MSM is missing (again).
Yep, Intrade Pretty Much Missed The Palin Pick, But…
Barry Ritholtz is so sharp, but when it comes to event contracts or prediction markets like Intrade, he seems to have blinders on. Today he takes on Intrade’s failure to accurately predict the Republican Veep nominee. Yep, up until yesterday
SR,
ROTF in disbelief… I have seen her on television and she is an accident waiting to happen.
NASCAR Nation and every other signifier of conservative so-called family values redneck America is already on McCain’s bus. This adds nothing.
I guarantee that this pick will blow up in McCain’s face. The skills needed to appeal to voters in Alaska are blunt instruments, and not those required in the highly finessed arena of a national election.
My advice to Biden is to tread softly in the VP debates, because Palin is more than capable of tripping over her own feet. My prediction is that by late October she will be hidden away like Dan Quayle was, to prevent any additional gaffes.
Why not a beauty queen? Reagan was an actor and look at how well that turned out.
“Palin, a former beauty queen, high school basketball star and television sportscaster, began her political career in the 1990s as a city councilwoman and then mayor in her home town of Wasilla. The town’s estimated population in 2007 was 9,780, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.”
Ok. Enough with the fun. Somebody needs to take the sharp scissors away from America before any more people get hurt.
Didn’t Palin get caught up in an ethics probe just last month? Amazing to see her get picked anyway. This is going to be in the news over the next few months, only now it becomes big time news.
@me
Thank you. The sharp scissors comment was HILARIOUS.
Does anyone realize what the rest of the world thinks about this?? Perhaps because I was not born here I did significant due diligence this morning to check that this was not in fact a MASSIVE PRANK.
Obviously she’s the wrong choice, and the economy will suffer dramatically as a result – check out today’s market action.
Surely Larry the K will see this, just as he saw the Obama effect a few days ago.
If you listen to Kudlow… The market is talking… It was the Obamma stock market run, Vs. the McCain sell off.
you can’t deny what the market is saying.
In fact, if Biden and Romney were both at 60%, then the probability that both would be tapped was only 36%.
Why 36 per cent? Please explain that.
I don’t see how anyone with half a brain could vote for the Republican ticket and I am a registered Republican.
I, for one, am very much hoping McCain will win.
I am looking forward to eight more years of the near-universal prosperity and fiscal responsibility that Bush and Cheney have provided us.
Furthermore, the world will respect us more as a nation knowing that we are sticking with wise statesmanship rather than getting seduced by shallow celebrity.
I agree – I might even have to make a quick trip to Georgia (just like Cindy) to see if I can scoop up some cheap Black Sea real estate… wouldn’t want to be priced out forever.
I guarantee that this pick will blow up in McCain’s face. The skills needed to appeal to voters in Alaska are blunt instruments, and not those required in the highly finessed arena of a national election.
Ya that was what made Bush-Cheney such formidable candidates – their finesse.
I’ll go you one further: if anything, the Intrade odds accentuate the polls and magnify their swings. If memory serves, McCain futures could be had for $.04 at one point about a year ago. This suggests the more useful paradigm for making money from prediction markets is the Black Swan (small, low-probability bets), not the Wisdom of Crowds. Clever title, but empirical evidence, not so much.
Re: leftback
I value your opinion(s) as well as all the others who cite their beliefs on this fantastic site. Barry, you are quite the gifted individual. Thank you for your efforts.
I heard the speech via radio, and was checking off (ie checklist style for flying aircraft) how/who/where she will appeal to.
As per Hillary’s reference of those 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling.
Palin’s coverage is immense and just tilted the balance of power in this game. Excluding gafts and scandals…
Position: Registered Dem, and will vote for Obama. Just to rattle the hard core conservatives/neocons that I fly with.
But if I was amongst Dem strategists, I would be polishing my resume.
Of course I could be wrong (and not the first nor the last time).
Alas, Your mileage may vary!
How could a Hillary supporter get fired up by Palin?
Palin is pro-life, (anti-pro-choice).
Palin is an NRA supporter.
Palin is a creationist.
Palin has less experience than Obama (who knew that was even possible?)
What Palin does is get the righties on McCain’s side.
1. Obama is still inexperienced. Palin as VP doesn’t change this. The VP nominee is supposed to balance the ticket, not BE the ticket, which a lot of commentators have lost sight of.
No. McCain is not your normal 72 year old(Happy Birthday John!!). He has a history of cancer, not to mention his being tortured(Contrary to what Bush claims). It’s a matter of her being a heartbeat away. Are you comfortable with that? It also blows away McCain’s only argument. By defintion, he’s saying she’s fit to be CiC. Small town mayor and 1 1/2 years as Governor?
2. No one will care about Palin’s estimate of oil in place in Alaska. However supporting drilling in ANWAR does at least indicate that she has common sense.
Common sense? That she thinks there is 10 times more oil there than even oil companies say? That the oil will be sold on world markets, not just held in America?
3. Kudos to McCain for keeping this under wraps and thereby wrong-footing Intrade, which obviously expected another white male to drag this ticket down just like Dole Kemp ’96.
Hilarious. Do you know the reason why it was kept under wraps? McCain barely even knows her. Obama knew Biden from being in the Senate. It’s a pander.
1. Obama is still inexperienced. Palin as VP doesn’t change this. The VP nominee is supposed to balance the ticket, not BE the ticket, which a lot of commentators have lost sight of.
No. McCain is not your normal 72 year old(Happy Birthday John!!). He has a history of cancer, not to mention his being tortured(Contrary to what Bush claims). It’s a matter of her being a heartbeat away. Are you comfortable with that? It also blows away McCain’s only argument. By defintion, he’s saying she’s fit to be CiC. Small town mayor and 1 1/2 years as Governor?
2. No one will care about Palin’s estimate of oil in place in Alaska. However supporting drilling in ANWAR does at least indicate that she has common sense.
Common sense? That she thinks there is 10 times more oil there than even oil companies say? That the oil will be sold on world markets, not just held in America?
3. Kudos to McCain for keeping this under wraps and thereby wrong-footing Intrade, which obviously expected another white male to drag this ticket down just like Dole Kemp ’96.
Hilarious. Do you know the reason why it was kept under wraps? McCain barely even knows her. Obama knew Biden from being in the Senate. It’s a pander.
1. Obama is still inexperienced. Palin as VP doesn’t change this. The VP nominee is supposed to balance the ticket, not BE the ticket, which a lot of commentators have lost sight of.
No. McCain is not your normal 72 year old(Happy Birthday John!!). He has a history of cancer, not to mention his being tortured(Contrary to what Bush claims). It’s a matter of her being a heartbeat away. Are you comfortable with that? It also blows away McCain’s only argument. By defintion, he’s saying she’s fit to be CiC. Small town mayor and 1 1/2 years as Governor?
2. No one will care about Palin’s estimate of oil in place in Alaska. However supporting drilling in ANWAR does at least indicate that she has common sense.
Common sense? That she thinks there is 10 times more oil there than even oil companies say? That the oil will be sold on world markets, not just held in America?
3. Kudos to McCain for keeping this under wraps and thereby wrong-footing Intrade, which obviously expected another white male to drag this ticket down just like Dole Kemp ’96.
Hilarious. Do you know the reason why it was kept under wraps? McCain barely even knows her. Obama knew Biden from being in the Senate. It’s a pander.
Forgot Alaska was part of the U.S.
She was recently mayor of a town with 9,700 people and now she’s a VP selection?
This is a horrendous (albeit bold) selection. Only the Hillary dead-enders won’t see through this pandering………
Palin is a creationist.
That explains why she is for ANWR drilling. She believes the universe was created 6,000 years ago. Oil doesn’t come from ancient organic matter. Whatever does create oil can easily be prayed into being operational again.
Nothing will bring down oil prices faster than prayer.
I can say this… the only ones who think this was a dumb move on McCain’s part appear to be dyed in the wool democrats.
In my opinion, this was absolute brilliance. From what I can tell, the dems just got their ass handed to them wrt veep choice.
Not that the repubs don’t have a tough row to hoe. There is the profilate spending and bumbling ineptitude of the current administration that they will need to distance themselves from.
But… to find a republican that has not only promised smaller government, but actually made it happen? When was the last time we saw that? Ron Paul? And she’s a lot better looking than Ron is.
Chuck Ponzi
Hilarious. Do you know the reason why it was kept under wraps? McCain barely even knows her. Obama knew Biden from being in the Senate. It’s a pander.
Posted by: Joe Klein’s conscience | Aug 29, 2008 1:08:05 PM
Well the Dems have LESS THAN ONE week to define her before the GOP defines her ‘herself’… that was why Biden was brought on – to be attack dog so let’s see if he has teeth (and can find the jugular without making a scene – quick & painless).
I doubt it.
O can’t win without FL, OH, PA & probably some mix of MO, IA, WI… all have sizable Evangelical Creationist pro-Life highly made up soccer moms… who all vote.
This wasn’t a bad choice in a Rovian sort of a way.
McCain has come a long way from South Carolina 2000 – the guy is no dummy, he’s learned his lessons.
I am lifelong traditional male conservative who was going to have a hard time swallowing voting for McCain but would do it to keep the Dems from a 3 house sweep can now vote McCain in good conscience.
Thank you McCain as you picked on heck of a running mate. She own’s one heck of a personal resume. They don’t come any higher quality than Palin.
A woman who hunts, plays hockey, ice fishes, former beauty queen, mother of 5, governs a state, understands Energy, Husband is in a union.
Too good to be true.
Democrats need to be scared. Can’t wait until they pull the inexperienced card.
@Chuck Ponzi:
“I can say this… the only ones who think this was a dumb move on McCain’s part appear to be dyed in the wool democrats.
In my opinion, this was absolute brilliance. From what I can tell, the dems just got their ass handed to them wrt veep choice.”
You might be right, but me-thinks the American people, who have been duped by the GOP’s cynical pandering, will see through it this time. You assume that the American public will simply fall for the same crap over and over again. Me-thinks they will for longer than they should, but when they wake up, they really wake up. If I’m wrong, this country deserves everything it gets.
To Eric Davis: The probability of two 60% outcomes both occurring is 36% (0.6 x 0.6). This is best seen by thinking about the probability of tossing heads twice in two coin flips. Here, four outcomes are possible – HH, HT, TH, and TT – and each has an equal, or 25%, chance of happening (0.5 x 0.5).
“who think this was a dumb move on McCain’s part…”
I thought Obama picking Biden was a dumb move too. You’re in the race to win it. The population elects you.(Bush excluded) So you go with who would have brought you the most popular votes and for Obama that would have been Hillary.
What’s interesting is that there is very little talk on this blog and in the MSM about how the actual proposed POLICIES will affect how voters will vote. Instead, we talk about window-dressing, like Palin’s looks, how she’ll influence “soccer moms” and the like, but doesn’t anyone out there think that the American public now cares at least a little about how the candidates’ proposed policies will affect their lives, especially after 8 years of disastrous GOP rule? I think sometimes voters get lazy and forget about this stuff when times are good, but when they’ve been kicked in the teeth as many times as they have over the past 8 years, I think they eventually wake up, and in a BIG way. A big angry voter turnout is going to doom McCain in Nov with or without the beauty queen from a sparsely populated inconsequential state.
Regardless of political inclination, you have to admit that as a strategic move it was fantastic. Surprise is key element, timing was right and boldness/risk was balanced.
“I can say this… the only ones who think this was a dumb move on McCain’s part appear to be dyed in the wool democrats.”
Honestly, as I’ve been reading the news sites and the political blogs, I think the reaction is precisely the opposite: The only ones who think this was a SMART move on McCain’s part appear to be dyed in the wool republicans. Most of the reaction I’ve seen ranges from “it’s a surprise that’s a bit odd” to “it’s a surprised that will lead to problems” to “that’s it, I’m voting for Bob Barr.”
I think Jeff M. is exactly right. This decision will cause a lot of happy chatter for a few days, but in the long term Palin will not hold up to scrutiny. A 72-year-old presidential candidate with a history of cancer is not exactly a stalwart of health expectancy. When people think about Sarah Palin as being a heartbeat away from the presidency, they will have second thoughts.
Again, this will be no ordinary election. The anger out there at the GOP by the masses is palpable. There will be an enormous voter turnout which means McCain could choose Jesus Christ himself as his running mate and probably lose and lose in a landslide. The only thing keeping this from being a complete embarrassment to the GOP is the issue of race.
This pick demonstrates the GOP is ceasing to be serious:
• Palin is the recently elected governor of state with about 650,000 people who was previously mayor of a village with about 7000 people.
• She has no national, foreign policy or financial experience;
• is a creationist;
• has views on abortion which are anathema to the vast majority of women;
• has not been through the gruelling experience of the primary season as other candidates like Romney has;
and
• appears to be entangled in some silly little abuse of power scandal involving family members.
This is all of a piece with the unbelievably trivial attacks on Obama based on Paris Hilton and the latest his drapes in Denver.
Whatever you think of Obama’s politics he demonstrated incredible substance last night, made a wise and prudent choice for his vp, and is clearly very cool under fire.
In the face of all this and the general political landscape the Palin pick shows an abysmal lack of judgement on the part of McCain while Obama looks like the grown up. Wait for a couple of days until the media spin has blown over and this is going to turn into an albatross of mega proportions.
@John(2): Palin’s selection merely reinforces O’s great line last night of how the GOP has a bad habit of “making big elections (and issues) small (with their vacuousness and trivialities).” Maybe I’m giving the American people more credit than they deserve, but I think her selection is a joke and an affront to serious people.
I don’t think the American people are in the mood for this kind of superficiality (e.g. she’ll get the “hocky mom” vote and is a “beauty queen”) and utter vacuousness by the GOP. There are serious issues out there that people really do care about now. This further demonstrates they don’t want to govern competently to prove their meme that government is incompetent and should not be asked to anything other than start bad wars.
The most sexist move of all is picking a woman for her gender not for her experience.
I don’t think the American people are in the mood for this kind of superficiality (e.g. she’ll get the “hocky mom” vote and is a “beauty queen”) and utter vacuousness by the GOP
McM will be happy to cede to O all the voters who know what ‘vacuousness’ means. Instead he’ll try to win the remaining ‘few’ who don’t and capture 300+ electoral college votes in the process.
Uggggg… Dems NEVER learn.
Jeff M:
I thought this was one of Obama’s most memorable lines too. It stuck in my mind. The reaction to the Palin news from a couple of acquaintances of mine who are staunch Republicans was basically hilarity. They wanted Romney who without question would have been the best choice because of his background and it might have given McCain a shot at Michigan. Of course these are both guys who have/do run big businesses so they may not be typical of the Republican mainstream but deep down it probably will be. I did a read of couple of pieces this morning as I usually do of reactions to Obama’s speech and I have to say some of the conservative ones like that of Brooks in the Times were verging on the puerile, no they weren’t verging, they were puerile. It’s all of a piece with a party that has completely lost contact with reality as is often highlighted here. As a country we are in deep poop in all sorts of ways and choosing Palin is just another demo that McCain and the GOP just don’t get it.
dryfly:
Perhaps it’s escaped your notice 80% of the country believes it’s heading in the wrong direction. They may not be able to spell vacuousness but neither as you seem to assume are they completely stupid. In fact I’d say your comment just about sums up what passes for serious thought in the GOP today. My family has voted Republican for generations but we’ve been mugged by an inconvenient reality.
Barry,
I hope that you save this thread and put it back up after the election.
Obama just lost his convention bounce. He will have to go for the three-pointers now.
McCain outfoxed him.
I would not have believed it.
You can’t make up this stuff.
To Eric Davis: The probability of two 60% outcomes both occurring is 36% (0.6 x 0.6). This is best seen by thinking about the probability of tossing heads twice in two coin flips. Here, four outcomes are possible – HH, HT, TH, and TT – and each has an equal, or 25%, chance of happening (0.5 x 0.5).
———
only if the 2 events are independent
@Dryfly: Now who’s being an “elitist?” You and the GOP continue to cynically assume that the American people are idiots. Now that assumption has been proven right far too often in recent years, I would agree, but I think there’s a massive wake up call happening. The fact that you can’t see that, in my mind, either makes you an “elitist” or incredibly obtuse.
John(2),
Your comment touches on the main problem as I see it. Americans are not deaf and blind but they are dumb. Logic would seem to imply that if an incredible 80% of the population thinks the country is on the wrong track, then anyone offering more of the same would only get about 20% of the popular vote. Do you really think McCain will get only 20% of the popular vote. Hell, if Bush was running for a third term he’d get over 20%. Only in America.
Movie Guy; I’d be happy for BR to keep this around. At the moment Obama is experiencing a 8% bounce in the Gallup daily tracking poll which I think was taken before his closing speech so he could go higher. What’s happening here is not that the staunch Republicans are switching to him but that the Clinton holdouts have swung behind him as was always inevitable. It’s hard to believe the naming of Palin which even conservatives are labelling a gamble (hence confirming McCain’s reputation in that department) is going to make all the Clinton followers swing back to McCain. There is a fair chance that Palin’s naming will be perceived for what it is and while rapturously received by creationists, pro lifers etc is likely to be regarded with the sort of hilarity or at least scepticism by more mainstream folks that I encountered when talking to a couple of acquaintances over lunch. And hence cause McCain’s numbers to actually go down. I have to think Romney would have produced a much more positive responses. Just my take.
Palin is McCain’s bridge to nowhere or should I say political trash heap.
Obama/Biden in a LANDSLIDE !
Al Czervic;
Of course not Al, I always remember that back in 1936 in the greatest electoral landslide in US history Alf Landon won 36% of the vote. It was one of my Grandfathers boasts that he voted for Alf Landon. The right way wrong way numbers are just a guide to the nations mood and the current mood is deeply anti all things Republican as is witnessed by the consensus that the Democrats are going to substantially increase their majorities in congress. When it comes to voting, tribalism, what daddy told me, and a million prejudices come into play. For Obama to win this election he has to avoid making it a referendum on him and more of a referendum on Bush/McCain, and he has to make the country comfortable with him as president. There’s little doubt he advanced his cause this week, by any fair assessment his performance last night was truly formidable. And the more he can make McCain look erratic and the bigger risk the more it will help him. I think the Palin decision at the very least made McCain look like a gambler and to that extent it plays to Obama’s McCain risky temperament narrative. Mark my words this woman is going to be a huge albatross in a way in which Romney would not have been imho.
Run Silent, Run Deep: The McCain Counterregnum (II)
Figures that one name left off my McCain pin-the-tail-on-the-veep list is now the one that has the media all abuzz: Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who’s sort of a Larry Kudlow in drag, and not in a good way. The easily aroused Imus gang has already dubbed her a milf with an exciting “slutty librarian” image, but I don’t see her taking off her glasses and freeing her hair provocatively on the debate stage during a steamy discussion of capital gains cuts. Palin on the ticket would definitely be a wild card for McCain to play, but it seems awfully late to spring a new face on the electorate who would require a lengthy introduction, and it’ll take quite a sale to convince the wary that she’d be ready to step into the Oval Office should McCain’s gasket irrevocably blow. I also don’t see how she’d help in the battleground states, which I throw out there just to sound politically savvy, not because I actually know anything. We work on a low informational/high impressionistic template here in the Picasso suite.
Speaking of Sir Goldilocks – what will be his rationale for the market tailspin today? Obama’s speech or Palin’s selection as GOP VP? Hhhhhmmmm, I wonder………
Another aside re: Palin – the reason why many hardcore GOP men like her is due to, surprise, surprise, superficial reasons (e.g. she’s a babe). That’s not going to make the largely feminist Hillary-backers very happy at all. I say they either stay home or are pushed to O, especially after last night’s tough speech. Hillary’s people were looking passion, fire and toughness out of O and they got it last night. That’s all they needed to see/hear.
@Dryfly: Now who’s being an “elitist?” You and the GOP continue to cynically assume that the American people are idiots. Now that assumption has been proven right far too often in recent years, I would agree, but I think there’s a massive wake up call happening. The fact that you can’t see that, in my mind, either makes you an “elitist” or incredibly obtuse.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Aug 29, 2008 3:18:03 PM
LOL – we’ll see.
I’ve lived in that world ALL MY LIFE – rural Midwest & SE USA… a short stint in Buffalo NY [that count as elite?]
EVERY TIME I try to gage the rubishness of the American voter I’m proven wrong, that I’ve underestimated it by a lot. I’m sure we’ll plumb new depths this election too.
Just because the American public thinks the country is going in the wrong direction doesn’t mean they think it ought to go in the direction the DNC wishes.
They’ll learn that one again and have to be reminded of it each and every state funeral Vice President Milf attends… should be interesting
Wow, Palin has an undergraduate degree in Journalism and she could be one step away from the presidency?
I dub thee “Idiocracy” if they win this election.
Wow! Did McCain purchase all those contracts at 4 cents on the buck? That’s one way to fund a campaign! :)
I’ve voted Republican for 40 years. I have had serious doubts about McCain. All I can say about McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin is that I will definitely vote for Barack Obama in November.
“I also don’t see how she’d help in the battleground states, which I throw out there just to sound politically savvy”
James Wolcott:
Well she probably takes Alaska off the table which sounds incredible in normal cirmcumstances but given the Stevens/Thomas scandals AK was moving into the toss up category. I’d say this pick has all the potential to become Harriet Miers II. It’s big benefit is that it probably reinforces McCain’s base but it’s a big gamble and looks like it which is uncanny since Obama actually raised the issue of McCain’s reckless temperament last night, I wonder if Axelrod is tapping phones. Maybe he has a side deal with Chertoff. Let the dust settle for a day or two and look for the narrative to emerge that this man cannot be trusted while rational calm adult Obama is not going to do anything rash.
@Dryfly: “Living in that world all my (your) life” by itself does not mean you are NOT an elitist.
It could just mean that you’re afraid to leave those places for a whle to play with the big boys and girls. Big fish in small pond syndrome. I too am am from and hav lived in those places, but it are your thoughts, words and actions that make one an elitist (or not) and your words in your prior post make that point clear to me.
I don’t necessarily assume that those who don’t know what the word “vacuousness” means automatically think the Dems are the answer to all of their problems, but what I do suspect is that a growing number of them know they’ve been bamboozled, are tired of getting kicked in the teeth and are more than likely going to vote for something different this time. If the race issue weren’t in play here, it wouldn’t even be close but O brings others in big numbers out of the woodwork and is a game changer in that regard. Please do check back after Nov. 4th to see if I’m right. I’m willing to bet I am……..
All right, all right, you lot. Calm down, please.
BTW, I propose a moratorium on the use of the phrase “MILF” in regard to the Vice-Presidential nominee. It’s clearly demeaning and there are web sites for you lot to pursue that sort of thing.
Now, here are the election results (drum roll)…:
McCAIN/PALIN WIN…!!
….but only in Alaska and Arizona.
G’nite all, and have a fantastic holiday weekend.
– lefty
Movie Guy — I’ll give you this — you are as consistent about politics as you are the market.
The GOP is completely disoriented and fractured after Obama kicked the living crap out of McCain last night.
The GOP already knows it will get its biggest ass whoppin since ’64 and this disparate ‘hail mary’ pass will be duly noted as the the biggest boondoggle in American political history.
Obama/Biden in a landslide win on Nov 4 !
As soon as the rumor was announced on CNBC, I thought “Brilliant distraction!” — they’ll all be talking about this for an hour or two, instead of the Obama speech, than the real VEEP announcement will come.
Then we got the actual announcement, and my reaction was “Wow! Hail Mary pass — and its not even the 4th quarter!”
This will play out very quickly — in 2 or 3 weeks, you will know if she is Vice-presidential material
Interesting…watched CNN discuss Palin…mainly called her “inexperienced”…UH, this is the junior portion of the GOP ticket…it is the senior portion of the democratic ticket that could be criticized exactly so…
I also watched Maria Bartiromo’s interview with this woman just a few minutes ago…
I think the GOP may have just saved the election…this woman is wonderful…in front of the camera.
Just my opinion…
Bruce in Tennessee
Note to all:
You should be grateful that you are readers and posters at TBP. For curiosity’s sake I just happened to look at the reactions to the VP nomination at the marketwatch.com site.
A complete description of what transpired there is clearly beneath the intellectual level of the TBP readership – suffice to say that the comments (on BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE) were incredibly puerile, offensive to women, and grammatically incorrect in regard to both grammar and spelling.
But something much deeper, darker and more insidious than that…
they were NOT FUNNY !
I say vote her in. I think I told you Kudlow was apparently creaming in his pants over this one.
It goes perfectly to the meme of how fundamentally unserious about actually governing the Republicans are.
Oh, and by the way, McCain is 23 years older than the state of Alaska.
In terms of her creationism, incidentally, the Republican platform bans all stem cell research, public or privately funded.
So even though most of the country disagrees with her views, the GOP is totally in sync with them.
About that fundamental lack of seriousness about governing (Scott) — its a good point — She stands in stark contrast to Obama’s pick, which was all about helping to govern once in office.
Also reminds me, by the way, of the nomination of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court. When the Republicans go to show their multicultural cred, they pick someone obviously and brutally unqualified, simply in order to ram it down the opposition’s throat. (I am a Democrat, so maybe I am biased).
The question is for the Independents: Does she make you more likely to vote for John McCain, or less likely?
@Martin: Good question. It’s probably more complicated than this and I may be over-generalizing, but Independents usually value more substance and competence, and less superficiality, so I don’t think this helps much. If anything, it pushes some I’s in the Barr or Nader camps or to simply stay home. My Dad is one of them.
john haskell,
“However supporting drilling in ANWAR does at least indicate that she has common sense.”
No, it indicates she is gullible for believing RightWing propaganda.
Spence Abraham, this administartion’s own Secretary of Energy, while discussing the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge with the Sacramento Bee newspaper, said:
* “Americans should not overestimate this region’s ability to provide the nation with energy independence”
* “The roughly 10 billion barrels of oil expected to be found there would be the equivalent of just SIX MONTHS OF U.S. CONSUMPTION”
.
Jeff M; My last contrib on this subject but the picks gone down rapturously on the pro life, religious extreme right of the Republican party. The older hands who have experience trying to win elections are being much more circumspect with phrases like big gamble, solidifies the base etc etc much in evidence. Now if you think the country is more or less where the far religious right is located on issues from abortion to healthcare it will be a plus but if they are not it will turn into a minus. As someone who voted Republican for a long time but believe the last eight years has been a disaster I’m quite comfortable that McCain’s shot himself in the foot. Just watch events over the next weeks when her dirty linen is washed and she makes a few potato style slips, it’s unfair but inevitable. I think the Dem convention started to change the mood of the electorate in the direction of Obama, this is going to hasten it.
Governor Palin pushed through the Alaskan legislature a Windfall Profits Tax on the Big Oil companies and used the proceeds to give money back to the citizens of Alaska.
What a concept !
(SHHHH ! Nobody tell the RightWing)
.
August 29, 2008
As a woman, I’m offended.
As a woman, I’m offended by John McCain’s decision to select Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. It is clear that the decision is primarily driven by politics, by the belief that to get Hillary’s supporters, all you need to do is play the gender card.
I respect what Palin has done in Alaska in terms of calling out corrupt politics, and I’m sure that McCain does too. But being a whistleblower and working towards a clean state government are not qualifications for the (vice) presidency, especially not in times like these. We need whistleblowers and we need people who will work to clean up the government, but we need so much more than that.
McCain is not a young man. The most important quality in a vice president is their ability to be the president should something happen. It’s one thing to say that Obama is not ready because he hasn’t spent enough time in Washington, but he has worked on issues at many levels and he is very well connected globally and engaged in global political issues. There’s nothing that indicates that the same is true of Palin.
Palin is the Governor of a state with severe economic issues. What has she done? She played protectionist politics to keep a dairy company in business when it was clear that they couldn’t compete and they still failed. Trying to protect failed business plans is not the path towards economic growth. Her current plan, although not yet implemented (thank god), is to destroy the environment and put at risk future generations for economic prosperity today.
As a woman, I’m offended. Women have long borne the responsibility to protect the environment and future generations. How can she turn her back on this to reap short-term political and economic rewards?
Palin marks her identity by noting that she’s just a soccer mom. She is respected politically for questioning powers that be. She is respected by evangelicals for not aborting her son after learning that he would have Down Syndrome.
As a woman, I’m offended. Palin has the right to choose what she does with her body, and I respect her decision, but I also demand the right to make my own choices. Feminism isn’t about aborting – feminism is about the right to choose and make decisions about our bodies based on what is best for everyone involved in the social context in which we live. A woman’s personal choice alone does not make her eligible for presidency.
I voted for Barack, but I deeply respect Hillary. I am in awe of the work she has done and that she continues to do. In 1992, I would’ve (could I have) voted for her in a second over Bill. 2008 is different and I think that Barack is bringing to the table something far more important. My choice of Barack is not a diss on Hillary. For the first time in my life, I made a choice about who to vote FOR not who to vote against.
Palin is not Hillary. Palin lacks the experience, the connections, the political stature, and, most importantly, the deep respect for women and women’s issues that Hillary has.
As a woman, I’m offended. I’m offended that McCain is choosing a woman who is clearly ill-equipped to be the president of this country in an effort to woo over Hillary’s supporters. I’m offended because McCain’s decision is one of the most misogynist ones I’ve seen in recent history. Does he honestly believe that women in this country are so stupid as to believe that any woman is a substitute for another woman? That all that us women boil down to is our XX chromosomes and estrogen? C’mon now.
complete post
http://www.zephoria.org/thoughts/archives/2008/08/29/as_a_woman_im_o.html
The starting point in discussing anything about this Presidential election is NOT that each candidate has an equal chance of winning. Instead, this election has always been the Democratic nominee’s to lose. Therefore the starting point is, say, 304 to 234 electoral college votes (the numbers that matter) and 56% to 44% popular votes in favor of Obama. Anything significantly closer than these would be an upset (barring a major incident between now and the election).
This means the question to anything the candidates do is not “Will this help Obama/McCain win?”, but rather “Will this change the margin of Obama’s victory?”
Governor Sarah Palin has more experience with energy then McCain, Obama, and Biden combined.
TransCanada License for Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Approved by Alaska Legislature
This is a blockbuster deal for Alaska, Canada(NYSE:TRP), and the USA.
If McCain wins, expect drilling in ANWR.
Karl Rove on Tim Kaine VA guv during the democrats’ veep vetting process.
“With all due respect again to Governor Kaine, he’s been a governor for three years. He’s been able but undistinguished. I don’t think people could really name a big, important thing that he’s done … [Kaine] was mayor of the 105th largest city in America. And again, with all due respect to Richmond, Virginia, it’s smaller than Chula Vista, California; Aurora, Colorado; Mesa, or Gilbert, Arizona; North Las Vegas, or Henderson, Nevada. It’s not a big town.”
Jonathan Alteron om Sarah Who ?
Happy birthday, Johnny Mac! You’re 72 now, a cancer survivor, and a presidential candidate who has said on many occasions that the most important criteria for picking a vice president is whether he or she could immediately step in if something happened to the president.
So you’ve picked a running mate who a year and a half ago was the mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, a town of 8,500 people.
You’ve selected a potential leader of the free world who knows little or nothing about the major issues of the day beyond energy.
Oh, and she’s being probed in her state for lying and abuse of power.
I love this blog Barry, I read it everyday.
Sadly, the American people in general are dumb. But not that dumb. Palin is a lightweight and everyone can smell it a mile away. You have to admire McCain’s balls in doing something so risky! Reminds me of Harriet Myers. My bet is that Republican turnout is way down this November due to embarrassment.
“Only the Hillary dead-enders won’t see through this pandering………”
yep. All 17 of ’em…and about 17,000 Republican pundits.
jesus christ
BlackSwan2008,
“If McCain wins, expect drilling in ANWR.”
Nah.
It would be filibustered.
Why would anyone (other than the oil companies and the Republicans they have purchased) want to spoil a pristine wildlife preserve for a lousy six months of oil ?
.
well lets review Obamas success in the Chicago Annenberg Challenge(CAC). Being as it is Obamas only foray into executive status on a project.
I will use a couple of quotes
“The Research Consortium was responsible for assessing the impact of the expenditure of the Challenge’s grant money. Ironically, they concluded that the $110 million spent in Chicago over six years had little or no impact on outcomes for students.”
Efforts to quantitatively assess the CAC’s efficacy at its stated goals appears to have generated mixed reviews. A comprehensive study by the Consortium on Chicago School Research, for example, concludes:
“Results suggest that among the schools it supported, the Challenge had little impact on school improvement and student outcomes, with no statistically significant differences between Annenberg and non-Annenberg schools in rates of achievement gain, classroom behavior, student self-efficacy, and social competence.”[5]
I still find it amazing the Democrats could put such a flawed and weak candidate in the GE in a year they should roll to victory……he wont get this Independents vote.
Even if simply for the reason of avoiding a Democratic majority in all 3 branches…..that did not work out too well under Bush as well.
Super majorities are very scary regardless of party.
David.
“I still find it amazing the Democrats could put such a flawed and weak candidate in the GE in a year they should roll to victory”
True dat.
But technically, it was the Republicans.
Hillary garnered more total votes in the national Democratic Primary, and if one only counts Democratic voters she had well over a million more than Obama, but it was the millions of Republicans in the Red States who changed party registration to cross over and vote for Obama on the Democratic ballot and then changed their registration back to Republican that gave him slightly more delegates.
They knew which candidate they would rather run against.
.
This pick has Rove’s finger prints all over it. Cynical, political and manipulative. Rove was part of the group that picked the VP.
She will always have a future as a FAUX talking head, along side Rove.
So some one that discounted the talk of VP until she learned what the job was about was chosen to be a potential leader of the “free world” should make me feel good. Not so much.
Last I knew part of the Republican plank was not to drill ANWR. Interesting take here.
I think everyone here will be surprised by how this plays out…both parties have major weaknesses in the top of the slate…
Really, folks, one of the commments earlier was spot on…if you think things will be better with a democratic president and a united senate and house, if you get your wish, let’s see how you feel in 3 years.
Ron Paul might not have been such a bad idea………..
Bruce in Tennessee
I understand the pandering to woman voters that McCain felt he had to do in his VP choice. He had many experienced and smart republican women out there to choose from; including a few that he has gotten to know in the senate. However, those women have earned a few wrinkeles and some sagyness from many years of hard work and brutal political fights. So they are not the kind of eye candy that he so obviously demands that a woman first and foremost should be. The fact that he chose this former beauty queen instead of an older experienced woman says it all, and should help a lot of “on the fence” Hillary supporters make up their mind. The fact that the first thing she did was to talk about how she could take over for Hillary (in breaking the glass celling) just show how incompetent she is, right there on her first assignment (to get the Hillary democratic voters). Does she really think they are that stupid or would not be offended by this kind of open pandering and suggestion that their support for Hillary was based on gender rather than ability?
This thing is worrisome at so many levels. The old guy is obviously not up to snuff himself, but he also seems to be making decision without the help of compent advice. With Obama we at least know that he has the judgement to sorrund himself with competent advisers (or he is an obsolute genious). If the old guy were to be elected and die, the country would be left with a President who neither has the experience nor the advisers to handle the job (or that 3 AM phone call).
The job of President is ultimately about the ability to make good decisions. Although experience may help with that, the job is so unlike any other that you can never be fully prepared. So the thing that first and foremost is required is the ability to find great advisers and be smart enough to listen to them.
Let’s evaluate McCain’s ‘Presidential’ decision-making capabilities
Some facts of the matter:
a) McCain met Palin in February at a meeting of the National Governors Association. The one-on-one interaction between the two, according to the McCain campaign, lasted 15 minutes, at a reception after the meeting.
b) McCain talked to Palin on the phone on Sunday, while she was at the Alaska State Fair. The conversation, according to Palin’s press secretary, lasted five minutes.
c) McCain had a brief meeting with Palin at one of his Arizona homes on Thursday morning, offering her a spot on the national ticket.
McCain’s decision-making criteria
1. There’s no personal relationship
2. There’s no sense of how the two might work together running the executive branch.
3. There’s no way McCain knows how she thinks, how she processes information, and how she responds when the pressures on.
4. There’s just nothing there substantive
Net Net
– McCain doesn’t know Sarah Palin, but he wants the nation to trust her.
– We should just trust him, despite the fact that he just picked someone to help him lead the nation who he barely knows anything about.
– McCain made a cynical political decision based on sole his desire to try and elected at all costs and just doesn’t care about anything else ( including well being of America ).
And some Americans want this mindset and mentality in the Oval Office?
YIKES…RUN DO NOT WALK AWAY FAST !
The funny thing is, that because of the preexisting taxes on Big Oil, Alaska already didn’t have any Sales Tax or Income Tax, and every family was getting a couple of grand mailed to them every year, but since Governor Palin pushed through the Windfall Profits Tax, they also did away with all Property Taxes and every family now gets close to four grand a year, and they are paving roads and building infrastructure like it’s going outa style.
If she was a Democrat, the Republicans would want to call it Havana North, and claim she was running a Socialist paradise.
.